To The Moon

oil ++

Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the outlook for gold, Bitcoin, and offshore RMB amid expectations for higher interest rates. The core of this session was how to assess the direction of these assets through cross-asset correlations, while also covering trading strategy execution and adjustments to moving average parameters. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> 空前的高收益率壓力下，為什麼比特幣的低位機會卻很值得關注？ Next, I will summarize the key information and trading-related views from the session, so that readers who did not have time to join can quickly unders

$100 Oil, the new Norm? Crude oil has decisively broken back above $100 per barrel, driven by: A sharp escalation in fighting between US and Iranian forces. And collapse in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. After months of relatively stable flows that kept prices in check, the market now faces a reality of sustained disruption, dwindling inventories, and limited room for supply to respond. Tanker traffic through the Strait has dropped from 6–9 million barrels daily (in August 2026) to below 2 million, with the renewed fighting. Recent reports also indicated that zero very large crude carrier has exited the Straits since 02 Sep 2026. With the latest news that 5 Iranian tankers have been destroyed by US and an Iranian’s counterstrike on US base in Jordan, quest for peace has just

Market Outlook of S&P500 (07Sep2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. However, there may be a reversal and let us await the crossover to confirm. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving average lines. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages This shows a bullish trend with a potential for reversal. Chaikin Money Flow CMF index shows a score of -0.18. This implies more sellin

Economic Calendar (07Sep2026) U.S. Holiday and Treasury Auctions The U.S. market will be closed on Monday for the Labour Day holiday weekend. Later in the week, investors will focus on the 10-year note auction and the 30-year bond auction, both of which are important indicators for the bond market. Higher bond yields may attract more capital into fixed income, potentially reducing the amount of cash flowing into other asset classes such as stocks and equities. Inflation and Labour Market Data August PPI is expected to be released with a forecast of 0.3%. This measure reflects inflation pressures faced by producers, which may flow through to consumers over the following months. Initial jobless claims will also be announced and will be a key data point for the Federal Reserve as it assesses

Straits of Trump war is escalating. Looks like conflict beibg notched up again.  Perhaps it is a good thing the market is not open on Monday?

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. So in order for Trump to uphold his dignity and ego, he has pivoted to extracting oil reserves from Venezuela now, since he overthrown the leader and indicted him in US. I feel that he is running out of ideas to get out of this mess he created, and who will end up in the worst end? US citizens.  @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  

Interest rates on government bonds are rising again, making borrowings more expensive for consumers and businesses. It also heightens concerns about whether governments are issuing more debt than financial markets can handle? Rising bond yields are one of the few forces in the world strong enough to get politicians to snap to attention. They can also have a big impact on US citizens’ personal finances and on the broader US economy. The bond market can dictate (a) how much ordinary people have to pay on their mortgages and car loans, as well as (b) how much consumers earn from their savings accounts and 401(k) plans (that is equivalent to Singapore's CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS). Gradual bubble up of Treasury yields. With fig

I’d choose C for now. A 20%+ one-day drop looks tempting, but the biggest issue isn’t valuation—it’s the uncertainty around wildfire liabilities and the Wildfire Fund. I’d rather wait for more clarity before treating $PG&E Corp(PCG)$ or $Edison(EIX)$ as a genuine defensive play. I still like the utility sector for its relatively stable cash flows, but I wouldn’t assume all utilities carry the same risk. $Utilities Select Sector SPDR

For the week ending 28 Aug 2026, US 3 major composite indexes closed moderately higher despite a late-week selloff. (see below) 3 Composite Indexes performances: DJIA : Ticked up +0.56% (+298.04 to 53,559.99). S&P 500: Advanced +0.63% (+48.38 to 7,711.76). Nasdaq: Led the weekly gains, rising +1.29% (+337.10 to 26,402.42). Trading volume. Trading volume during the week remained relatively muted, continuing a late-summer trend. On the heavier-volume days like Thursday & Friday, roughly 14.9 billion shares changed hands across US exchanges. This volume marked a slight contraction or stayed flat compared to the previous week's average, well below Wall Street's 20-session trading volume average of 16.3 - 16.6 billion shares. Catalysts for the week. The week was driven by a tug-of-war b

Global climate shifts and severe weather events pose clear macroeconomic hurdles. As nations realign fiscal priorities for infrastructure resilience and disaster recovery, the financial toll of environmental volatility grows. Managing portfolio risk means evaluating how resource scarcity, supply chain cracks, and evolving rules hit corporate and sovereign stability. $Lion-OSPL Low Carbon S$(ESG.SI)$   $Alerian MLP ETF(AMLP)$   A neutral approach prioritizes diversification into sectors actively managing transition risks. Allocating toward adaptive infrastructure, resource efficiency, and reliable energy corridors helps curb climate-policy volatility. This measured stance preserves liquidity wh

All is fair. Just a game.

I prefer monitoring actual Strait of Hormuz transit volume before aggressively buying energy names. Geopolitical spikes often produce sharp short-term volatility in spot oil (Brent breaking $90), but energy equities like XLE tend to wait for confirmation of sustained physical supply disruptions or longer-term higher average oil prices. Until real transit flow is impacted, hedging via short-dated oil options might be safer than locking into equities.

I’d choose C — wait until the wildfire liability rules become clearer. PCG and EIX look tempting after falling more than 20%, but I don’t think this is a simple “buy the dip” situation. The core problem is not whether these companies are profitable today; it is the uncertainty around future wildfire liabilities and whether California’s Wildfire Fund will have a sustainable replenishment mechanism. A stock can become cheaper while its risk premium is rising at the same time. That is exactly what I see here. Until the rules become clearer, PCG and EIX could remain highly sensitive to headlines, legal developments and financing costs. If I wanted utility exposure now, I’d prefer XLU or VPU for diversification. For individual California utilities, I’d rather sacrifice the first part of a rebo

California’s Wildfire Bill Turns PCG and EIX Back Into High-Risk Assets One-line takeaway: Utility stocks may offer protection against the economic cycle, but they are not necessarily protected from wildfire liabilities, regulatory changes or the legal risks of a single state. The biggest individual stock moves in the U.S. market on Monday did not come from the technology sector, but from traditionally “defensive” stocks. PG&E $PG&E Corp(PCG)$ fell 20.1%; Edison International $Edison(EIX)$ dropped 23.1%; Sempra $Sempra(SRE)$ declined 3.1%. The trigger was a California wildfire bill. The final version did not in

Direct Commodity vs. Equity Hedging: If you are seeking pure exposure to geopolitical risk, crude futures or commodity ETFs (like USO or DBO) offer direct alignment. Energy equities (XLE) reflect long-term corporate cash flows, refining margins, and broader equity market sentiment rather than instantaneous barrel prices. Tactical Approach: Avoid chasing the initial spike in spot oil. Wait for confirmation of persistent chokepoint disruptions before placing aggressive upside bets on upstream producers.

it's all emotional trade caused by media . The real action from institution is obvious, buy now and follow the train

Hormuz Watch: Tracking actual vessel traffic and freight insurance rates through Hormuz provides a clearer signal than headline noise. Real supply bottlenecks beat geopolitical rhetoric every time.

Hello. After Warsh spoke on Friday, one estimate put the odds of a September rate rise at 60 per cent. Over the weekend US forces struck Iran and Brent crude went above US$90. Dearer oil makes inflation harder to hold down. But this particular fire is burning on the supply side, where a rate rise will not put it out and will press on demand as well. In three days, September became a harder question. This was Warsh's first appearance at Jackson Hole as chair. He restated the commitment to holding inflation down, and coverage rated the speech "moderately hawkish". He made clear he was not offering forward guidance; a former Fed vice chair said he had given it anyway. The market took him at his word: the two-year Treasury yield jumped, spot gold fell from US$4,649.60 last Thursday to US$4,478

Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%

oil ++

$100 Oil, the new Norm? Crude oil has decisively broken back above $100 per barrel, driven by: A sharp escalation in fighting between US and Iranian forces. And collapse in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. After months of relatively stable flows that kept prices in check, the market now faces a reality of sustained disruption, dwindling inventories, and limited room for supply to respond. Tanker traffic through the Strait has dropped from 6–9 million barrels daily (in August 2026) to below 2 million, with the renewed fighting. Recent reports also indicated that zero very large crude carrier has exited the Straits since 02 Sep 2026. With the latest news that 5 Iranian tankers have been destroyed by US and an Iranian’s counterstrike on US base in Jordan, quest for peace has just

Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the outlook for gold, Bitcoin, and offshore RMB amid expectations for higher interest rates. The core of this session was how to assess the direction of these assets through cross-asset correlations, while also covering trading strategy execution and adjustments to moving average parameters. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> 空前的高收益率壓力下，為什麼比特幣的低位機會卻很值得關注？ Next, I will summarize the key information and trading-related views from the session, so that readers who did not have time to join can quickly unders

Economic Calendar (07Sep2026) U.S. Holiday and Treasury Auctions The U.S. market will be closed on Monday for the Labour Day holiday weekend. Later in the week, investors will focus on the 10-year note auction and the 30-year bond auction, both of which are important indicators for the bond market. Higher bond yields may attract more capital into fixed income, potentially reducing the amount of cash flowing into other asset classes such as stocks and equities. Inflation and Labour Market Data August PPI is expected to be released with a forecast of 0.3%. This measure reflects inflation pressures faced by producers, which may flow through to consumers over the following months. Initial jobless claims will also be announced and will be a key data point for the Federal Reserve as it assesses

Interest rates on government bonds are rising again, making borrowings more expensive for consumers and businesses. It also heightens concerns about whether governments are issuing more debt than financial markets can handle? Rising bond yields are one of the few forces in the world strong enough to get politicians to snap to attention. They can also have a big impact on US citizens’ personal finances and on the broader US economy. The bond market can dictate (a) how much ordinary people have to pay on their mortgages and car loans, as well as (b) how much consumers earn from their savings accounts and 401(k) plans (that is equivalent to Singapore's CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS). Gradual bubble up of Treasury yields. With fig

For the week ending 28 Aug 2026, US 3 major composite indexes closed moderately higher despite a late-week selloff. (see below) 3 Composite Indexes performances: DJIA : Ticked up +0.56% (+298.04 to 53,559.99). S&P 500: Advanced +0.63% (+48.38 to 7,711.76). Nasdaq: Led the weekly gains, rising +1.29% (+337.10 to 26,402.42). Trading volume. Trading volume during the week remained relatively muted, continuing a late-summer trend. On the heavier-volume days like Thursday & Friday, roughly 14.9 billion shares changed hands across US exchanges. This volume marked a slight contraction or stayed flat compared to the previous week's average, well below Wall Street's 20-session trading volume average of 16.3 - 16.6 billion shares. Catalysts for the week. The week was driven by a tug-of-war b

California’s Wildfire Bill Turns PCG and EIX Back Into High-Risk Assets One-line takeaway: Utility stocks may offer protection against the economic cycle, but they are not necessarily protected from wildfire liabilities, regulatory changes or the legal risks of a single state. The biggest individual stock moves in the U.S. market on Monday did not come from the technology sector, but from traditionally “defensive” stocks. PG&E $PG&E Corp(PCG)$ fell 20.1%; Edison International $Edison(EIX)$ dropped 23.1%; Sempra $Sempra(SRE)$ declined 3.1%. The trigger was a California wildfire bill. The final version did not in

Following last weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a relatively hawkish message, prompting the market to reassess and reprice the timing of U.S. interest-rate hikes. According to the current FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike at the end of September is slightly above 50%. This implies that the next round of nonfarm payroll and inflation data to be released next month could play an important role. From a data perspective, the probability of a rate hike surged by nearly 20 percentage points within just one week, driven entirely by Warsh’s remarks rather than by any other major economic data releases. However, based on historical experience, only probabilities above 70% tend to produce near-certain outcomes. With the current probability still below 60%

Hello. After Warsh spoke on Friday, one estimate put the odds of a September rate rise at 60 per cent. Over the weekend US forces struck Iran and Brent crude went above US$90. Dearer oil makes inflation harder to hold down. But this particular fire is burning on the supply side, where a rate rise will not put it out and will press on demand as well. In three days, September became a harder question. This was Warsh's first appearance at Jackson Hole as chair. He restated the commitment to holding inflation down, and coverage rated the speech "moderately hawkish". He made clear he was not offering forward guidance; a former Fed vice chair said he had given it anyway. The market took him at his word: the two-year Treasury yield jumped, spot gold fell from US$4,649.60 last Thursday to US$4,478

Market Outlook of S&P500 (07Sep2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. However, there may be a reversal and let us await the crossover to confirm. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving average lines. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages This shows a bullish trend with a potential for reversal. Chaikin Money Flow CMF index shows a score of -0.18. This implies more sellin

The anticipated pullback may already be underway: Three strategies for navigating today’s choppy market The U.S. equity market is currently in a highly sensitive, tightly balanced high-level volatility regime. Previously, cooling macro data—including softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings—helped ease inflation expectations and created an exceptionally favorable backdrop for U.S. equities. Supported by these conditions, the S&P 500 continued advancing and reached fresh highs. However, renewed geopolitical tensions this week have disrupted the previous calm, as a sudden rise in crude oil prices has altered the market landscape once again. At this macroeconomic crossroads, characterized by an unusually large numbe

Gold traded lower on Monday (31 August), as renewed inflation concerns, developments surrounding U.S. strikes on Iran and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech weighed on market sentiment. Spot gold was hovering around US$4,400 as of 12pm Singapore time on Monday, after pulling back from last week's high of US$4,696. Tracking the spot price, $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ fell about 3.2% during Friday's trading session. Amplifying the return, GLD 5x Short DLC (GOSW) rose around 16%, while GLD 5x Long DLC (GLDW) declined by a similar magnitude. Silver also came under pressure, with $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ declining 4.4%. Correspondingly, the SLV 3x Short DLC (SVSW) rose more than 12%, while the SLV 3x Long DLC (SLSW)

On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex

Global climate shifts and severe weather events pose clear macroeconomic hurdles. As nations realign fiscal priorities for infrastructure resilience and disaster recovery, the financial toll of environmental volatility grows. Managing portfolio risk means evaluating how resource scarcity, supply chain cracks, and evolving rules hit corporate and sovereign stability. $Lion-OSPL Low Carbon S$(ESG.SI)$   $Alerian MLP ETF(AMLP)$   A neutral approach prioritizes diversification into sectors actively managing transition risks. Allocating toward adaptive infrastructure, resource efficiency, and reliable energy corridors helps curb climate-policy volatility. This measured stance preserves liquidity wh

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. So in order for Trump to uphold his dignity and ego, he has pivoted to extracting oil reserves from Venezuela now, since he overthrown the leader and indicted him in US. I feel that he is running out of ideas to get out of this mess he created, and who will end up in the worst end? US citizens.  @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  

I’d choose C for now. A 20%+ one-day drop looks tempting, but the biggest issue isn’t valuation—it’s the uncertainty around wildfire liabilities and the Wildfire Fund. I’d rather wait for more clarity before treating $PG&E Corp(PCG)$ or $Edison(EIX)$ as a genuine defensive play. I still like the utility sector for its relatively stable cash flows, but I wouldn’t assume all utilities carry the same risk. $Utilities Select Sector SPDR

The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r

The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. $Inve

This week's price action in U.S. equities is critical for the market trend over the next several weeks — above all the FOMC decision due early Thursday Beijing time. The U.S. indices have arrived at a very important support level, and once a key variable pushes them into choosing a direction, the broader medium-term trend could change. The current calm may therefore be brewing sharp volatility in the back half of the week. First, the latest developments on the technical side As you can see, the Nasdaq has now reached a very critical level. On the head-and-shoulders top pattern, the formation can already be treated as a breakdown of the head structure; by conventional technical projection, the subsequent downside would theoretically be roughly equal to the distance from the head to the curr

I’d choose C — wait until the wildfire liability rules become clearer. PCG and EIX look tempting after falling more than 20%, but I don’t think this is a simple “buy the dip” situation. The core problem is not whether these companies are profitable today; it is the uncertainty around future wildfire liabilities and whether California’s Wildfire Fund will have a sustainable replenishment mechanism. A stock can become cheaper while its risk premium is rising at the same time. That is exactly what I see here. Until the rules become clearer, PCG and EIX could remain highly sensitive to headlines, legal developments and financing costs. If I wanted utility exposure now, I’d prefer XLU or VPU for diversification. For individual California utilities, I’d rather sacrifice the first part of a rebo