To The Moon

US consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in August, and new-home sales recorded their weakest pace since January. Yet consumers simultaneously reported a better current labour market. The split matters for equities: households are worried about the future, but the evidence does not yet show a uniform contraction in present spending capacity. The Conference Board released its preliminary August survey on August 25, covering responses collected from August 3 through August 16. The Consumer Confidence Index declined to 89.4 from 90.2 in July. The Present Situation Index rose 6.8 points to 121.2, while the Expectations Index fell 5.8 points to 68.2. The Conference Board’s official August release provides the survey dates and components. The bullish interpretation is that current employ

Oil’s geopolitical premium unwound rapidly on August 25 as traders saw a possible route toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The reversal pressures producers’ near-term revenue but lowers inflation, transport costs and bond yields for much of the rest of the stock market. The same commodity move can therefore be bearish for energy equities and bullish for rate-sensitive growth shares. Brent crude fell 3.6% during the August 25 session to approximately $87.27 a barrel after rising in 13 of the preceding 14 sessions. Early on August 26 in Asia, Brent fell another 2% to $86.80 and West Texas Intermediate declined to $80.87 after Iran and Oman discussed a temporary navigation corridor and mine-clearing in the strait. The waterway handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied-natural-