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Tom Yuen's Playbook: A Fibonacci Setup, Futures vs. Options, and What's Changing
Speaker: Tom Yuen (YCK) walks through a simple Fibonacci pullback setup with an 80/20 exit, compares futures with options, and flags changes coming to contracts and US trading hours. [About the Speaker] Tom Yuen (YCK) has over 30 years of professional futures trading experience, starting as an independent floor trader at SIMEX (now SGX-DT). A Computer Science graduate of the National University of Singapore, he is an SGX-DT-endorsed trainer who has trained traders across Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. [The Hook] A good setup, YCK argues, is more than a chart pattern. It also needs a plan for managing money and managing yourself. He demonstrated with a simple Fibonacci-based approach. [The Setup: Buying a Pullback to a Fibonacci Level] Find the context — the market drops into a support z
TOP吉3186: I think the most important thing in this sharing session is not about Fibonacci retracements, but about planning stop-loss, take-profit, and position management before entering the market. Taking profits in 80/20 batches can help lock in some profits, but technical indicators cannot guarantee trading success. Futures trading involves leverage, and losses may quickly widen. Option buyers may also lose all premium, while sellers may bear greater risk. For beginners, I recommend practicing with a demo account first to familiarize yourself with the trends of gold or major indices. Don't rush into highly leveraged products, and don't copy other people's contract volumes. Learn to control losses first, then consider how much to make. Long-term stability is more important than making a lot of money in one go.
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Macro Weekly: Yields Near a Peak? Key Setups in Gold and Long Bonds
Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Near Term Direction for US Equities Remains Unclear, Pending CPI and TSMC Earnings The baseline scenario for US equities this week remains consolidation near current highs. A downside break is the next most likely outcome, followed by a move to new highs and a higher trading range. All three scenarios remain possible. Easing diplomatic tensions ahead of the election should support market stability and may delay a larger correction, although a modest near term pullback remains a risk. The
TOPTerm premium and Treasury refunding matter more here. CPI alone will not call the top in yields if supply keeps pressuring the long end
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U.S. Midterms in 20 Days: Which Stocks Could Be Most Affected?
The U.S. midterm elections are just 20 days away, and Wall Street is starting to focus on a familiar question: If control of Congress changes, which sectors could face the biggest policy shifts? On November 3, Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the Senate. Republicans currently control the White House and both chambers of Congress, but the elections could change that balance. For investors, the key is not simply whether Republicans or Democrats gain seats. It is how different congressional outcomes could affect financial regulation, crypto policy, energy investment, healthcare spending and AI infrastructure. Three scenarios are worth watching. Scenario 1: Republicans Retain Control of Both Chambers If Republicans maintain control o
TOP④ Election impact is limited — earnings, the Fed and AI CapEx matter more. Markets price political expectations long before policies become reality. Even if Democrats gain control of Congress, presidential veto power and legislative gridlock could limit major policy reversals. Meanwhile, interest rates, corporate earnings and AI capital expenditure will shape valuations. The bigger risk is confusing political narratives with investment fundamentals. A crypto-friendly administration cannot guarantee COIN's profitability, just as renewable energy incentives cannot rescue an overpriced stock. Investors should focus on earnings revisions, free cash flow and valuation relative to growth. My strategy is to avoid betting on election predictions. Instead, I would monitor policy-sensitive sectors while keeping core ETF investments steady.Politics may shift market sentiment, but cash flow determines whether a company's valuation is sustainable. @Tiger_comments [正经]
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【10.05–10.11】🏆 Weekly Review | US$65K Profit from PLTR! Three More Stocks Worth a Closer Look
Prestige No. 5 Saevus has an interesting mix of stocks in this week's Profit Top 5. PLTR alone brought in around US$65K in profit. The other three stocks — CEG, CCJ and GEV — all have links to energy and power infrastructure. On one side, there's AI software. On the other, nuclear power, uranium and power equipment. Could this combination reveal an interesting investment approach? Quick recap of last week's rankings: Prestige Top 3: 🥇@JiaWei主教练是我师傅 , 🥈@NicolasSoo , 🥉@逆天邪神云澈 Elite Top 3: 🥇@Dundun87 , 🥈@dsv69 , 🥉
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A Chip Rally and a Memory Rout on the Same Day. What Split Them?
The indices: barely moved, but chips and memory went in opposite directions The three indices were nearly flat on Tuesday: the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.02 per cent to 7,805.45; the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 0.15 per cent to 27,204.38; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.35 per cent to 51,670.10. The 10-year Treasury yield eased from 5.24 per cent to 5.22 per cent. The compute chips that had been falling since last Thursday bounced: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose 0.97 per cent to US$228.52 and AMD rose 1.90 per cent to US$605.53, with the specific AMD driver in the next sect
TOPI believe that Citi's better-than-expected performance but decline indicates that the market is not only concerned with how much money it has made in the past, but also with whether it can continue to make money in the future. Investors may be concerned about future guidance, net interest income, and the economic outlook. If other banks are experiencing similar situations, we should pay attention to whether high interest rates are starting to affect bank profits. However, a single-day decline is not enough to prove that the economy is deteriorating. If it were me, I would focus on the bank's net interest income, loan default rate, bad debt provisions, and management's views on the future economy, rather than just whether earnings per share exceeded expectations. My conservative strategy is to observe first and not rush to buy bank stocks at the bottom. The stock prices of good companies may continue to fall. Once the financial reports and economic data are clearer, we will consider making phased investments. Investing should not only be based on superficial numbers, but also on the quality of profits and future risks.
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I think consumers are becoming more selective rather than stopping spending altogether. Everyday essentials still get priority, but higher prices and borrowing costs are making people think twice about discretionary purchases. The key question is whether consumer resilience can continue into Q4.
TOPStaples still have support, but electronics and apparel are already showing cracks. Q4 probably comes down to whether promotions can offset the softer discretionary mix
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ASML Earnings Are the Real AI Capex Test. I Would Watch Orders Before Revenue.
Semiconductor stocks have just endured another uncomfortable reset. Memory names have fallen sharply. Asian chip stocks sold off again. Concerns around China's semiconductor progress have returned. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly questioning whether the enormous AI capex cycle can continue at the same pace. Now ASML reports. For me, this is one of the most important semiconductor reports of the quarter. Not because ASML tells us what happened during the last three months. It can tell us what the world's biggest chipmakers expect to need 12 to 18 months from now. That makes ASML's order book more important than the headline EPS number. The Number I Care About Most: Bookings ASML sits unusually far upstream. TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix and Micron cannot simply decide to produce subs
TOPFor me the key is not the bookings headline but the EUV vs DUV mix. At 1732 premarket, weak orders matter less than whether leading-edge demand still looks committed.
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$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Q3 Earnings: Triple Beat, Sky-High Demand, but will the Supply Bottlenecks cap their 2027-28 growth? ASML just dropped its Q3 2026 earnings, and the numbers were definitively on the upper side: • Total Net Sales: €11.7 billion (near the very top of guidance) • Gross Margin: A monster 57.5% (beating expectations due to a massive €3.3B in high-margin Installed Base Management upgrades) • Net Income: €5.0 billion (€12.95 basic EPS) The Twist: Supply Constraints for 2027–2028 While the beat was clean across the board, the potential issue to watch out closely, is management's commentary on visibility. Customer demand for AI-related infrastructure is so intense that ASML explicitly warned their planned supply for 2027
TOPThe 2027-28 bottleneck reads more like moat than problem to me. When customers are already looking out to 2029-30, the demand visibility is kind of absurd
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The Five Stages of Learning Options: Which One Are You At?
When people first get into options, the question they often ask is: “I’m bullish on this stock. Which Call should I buy?” After a while, the questions change: Why can I lose money even when I get the direction right? Are strategies for sellers safer? Spreads seem like they can manage risk, but what should I watch out for when using them? Many people go through these five stages as they learn about options. They aren’t a fixed progression: you might skip a stage or move back and forth between them. Read through to the end for a new‑trader surprise 🎁—then see which stage sounds most like you. Stage 1: The eager beginner — “This contract is cheap. Why not give it a try?” When you’re new to options, low-priced, deep out-of-the-money contracts can be tempting. You watch the underlying stock mov
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Anthropic Is Warning About AI Risks — While Preparing for a Mega IPO
Anthropic faces an unusual challenge ahead of its planned IPO: convince investors that AI offers enormous commercial potential while warning them that the technology could create serious risks. That tension could make its public debut one of the most closely watched events in the AI market. 💰 1. The growth story is compelling Anthropic’s annualised revenue run rate reportedly reached US$65 billion at the end of July, according to reporting cited by Bloomberg and Barron’s. But revenue run rate is not the same as actual annual revenue or profit. Investors will want to see the full financial picture, including margins, operating losses and the cost of computing. ⚠️ 2. AI safety is becoming an investment issue Anthropic researchers have warned that increasingly capable AI models could potentia
TOPRun rate alone won’t carry the IPO. No quarterly sequential growth or gross margin is a bigger hole than the 65B headline, though tighter rules could still help the safety pitch longer term
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BAC, a Buy amidst Selloff, Q3 & Fines ?
BRK.B’s Continued BAC Exit Under new $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ CEO Greg Abel, the continued reduction of $Bank of America(BAC)$ is the most conspicuous portfolio decision heading into BAC’s Q3 2026 earnings report. BRK.B’s Q2 2026 13F showed a sale of about 30.2 million BAC shares, equivalent to a -5.9% reduction and roughly $1.7 billion at quarter-end prices. It was BRK.B’s largest dollar reduction during the quarter. The sale continued the disciplined approach set by Warren Buffett. BRK.B owned just over 1.03 billion BAC shares in mid-2024 and has reduced its stake every quarter since. By the end of June 2026, it held 483.4 million shares, less than half of its earlier position. The Q2 filing marked t
TOPNice Sharing 😁 @koolgal @Barcode @Aqa @DiAngel @Shyon @Shernice軒嬣 2000
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"Infinite Demand" vs. "Trillions Destroyed": Wall Street's Smartest Minds Just Split on AI
October 14, 2026 — Investor Education: The AI Debate, Mapped For the past two years, the AI trade had one voice. This week, it has two — and they're shouting past each other. On one side: Jensen Huang, who just repeated that global AI infrastructure capex will hit $3–4 trillion annually by 2030, insisting demand is "nowhere near" supply-constrained growth. On the other: Michael Burry, the man who called the housing bubble, arguing that AI will consume and destroy trillions in capital — and that markets may need to fall just to stop AI IPOs from vacuuming up the money. Between them sits the most important disagreement in markets right now: Is the AI supercycle a real productivity revolution — or a capex bubble priced for perfection? Here's the full map of who's saying what, so you can decid
TOPThe AI Boom: Real Revolution, Dangerous Valuations The biggest mistake investors make is assuming revolutionary technology automatically makes every related stock a good investment. Jensen Huang may be right about AI transforming the economy, while Michael Burry may also be right that investors are overpaying. Both can be correct. The real issue is capital efficiency. Billions are flowing into chips, data centers and energy, but spending is not profitability. If AI revenues fail to justify investments, depreciation, debt costs and shrinking margins could expose weaknesses hidden by today's growth figures. My view:Don't bet against AI; question the price you pay.The next phase will reward companies that convert computing power into sustainable cash flow, not those selling the most exciting AI narrative. @Capital_Insights [暗中观察]
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Korea's Memory Stocks Fell 8% Today. Western Digital Doesn't Make Memory
$Western Digital(WDC)$ Mathematical Money | October 13, 2026 The KOSPI broke below 6,000 today, down more than 7% intraday and triggering a sell-side trading curb for the first time in two months. SK Hynix fell over 9%. Samsung Electronics over 8%. $WDC$ is down about 6% as I write, at roughly $362 against Monday's close of $387. I own the shares, I own long-dated calls, and I wrote about this sector eight days ago. So I went and read what actually happened rather than assuming the move told me something about my position. It mostly doesn't, but the part that does is uncomfortable, and I would rather set out both than pick the half that suits the position. What actually happened in Korea The trigger was CXMT, a Chinese memory maker, whi
TOPThe HDD moat still looks intact to me. If those customer agreements really run into 2029, this feels more like sentiment spillover than thesis damage
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I would choose B, but the real question is whether AI can turn massive investment into sustainable profits. Revenue growth alone cannot justify every valuation. Investors must examine cash flow, margins, and whether AI spending generates sufficient returns. Strong demand means little if companies cannot monetize it effectively. Rising Treasury yields also pressure valuations. Even great companies can see their stocks fall when expectations become excessive. My view: AI remains a powerful growth engine, but earnings must catch up with expectations. Otherwise, today's winners could become tomorrow's valuation risks. The next earnings season will reveal which companies have real pricing power and which are simply riding market enthusiasm. @
TOPCapEx efficiency matters more than hype here. If recurring revenue stays thin, margins can look good for a quarter and still not hold up
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I think option ④ is the most reasonable for now. AI memory demand remains strong, and $Cxmt Corporation(688825)$ CXMT’s technological progress does not automatically mean it can achieve mass production at competitive costs or quickly challenge established players. I believe the memory supercycle is still intact for now, but today’s selloff reminds me that no growth story moves in a straight line. I will be watching DRAM pricing, production capacity and customer demand to see whether the supply-demand balance is genuinely changing. For $Micron Technology(MU)$ , I prefer to stay patient rather than panic over short-term volatility. Competition is worth monitoring, but I would not assume the memory upcycle
TOPContract pricing matters more here than spot. HBM can stay tight while commodity DRAM gets noisy, so I would wait for earnings and capacity data first
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🌟🌟🌟I believe that $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ is likely to close Green, 5% to 10% post earnings. Why? TSMC has officially posted a record shattering Q3 revenue of NTD 1.49 trillion (USD 46.71 billion) on October 8. This represents a mind boggling 50% year on year increase. It also completely cleared the upper ceiling of TSMC's own Q3 guidance bracket of USD 44.6 billion to USD 45.8 billion. Net profit is projected to expand by 65%. This sheer financial dominance provides a rock solid floor that prevents the stock from turning flat or red. Morgan Stanley is predicting that TSMC's management will lift its full year 2026 revenue guidance up to the low to mid 40% range. This sends a clear message that
TOPGreat quarter, but earnings beats do not automatically mean plus 5 to 10. Capex is still massive and free cash flow matters more to me here.
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My conviction is lower, but not broken. CXMT changes the long-term risk premium for memory. If it can turn 4F² into competitive, high-yield mass production, Chinese supply could eventually pressure conventional DRAM pricing and challenge the industry's current structure. But announcing an architecture is very different from producing server-grade DRAM economically at scale. Yield, reliability, customer qualification and volume are the real tests. Until CXMT demonstrates those, I see the sell-off as the market pricing in a credible new risk rather than proof that the memory cycle has fundamentally changed. Hock Tan's warning matters too. If capital becomes the constraint on AI build-outs, demand expectations could cool even before new Chinese supply arrives. So I would still hold quality me
TOPCapex pressure is the part people still underprice. Even before CXMT scales, tighter financing can slow the whole memory buildout and reset demand assumptions fast.
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$SGX(S68.SI)$ SGX - TA wise, bearish mode. She may go down to test 20.55. If unable to hold we may see further weakness ahead. Next, She may test 20 than 18.70. Pls dyodd. 2nd October 2026: SGX - It looks like the market doesn't like the latest development, price tank this morning to touch 21.50, looks like more weakness ahead! She had broken down below 20,50,100 Days Moving Average likely to go down to revisit 21.00 , 200 days Moving Average. If unable to reclaim 21.00, she may go further downward to 20.00 and below. Yield is low about 2%. Must well get something else better like SSB or other dividend counter like SingTel, Sembcorp Ind, Venture etc. Not a call to buy or sell. Pls dyodd.
TOP2% yield is the bigger problem here. SGX was never really a yield play, so once the chart rolls over it gets hard to defend
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🌟Will $Microsoft(MSFT)$ latest move to cut Azure costs by 20% unleash profits or confirm AI bubble? There are 2 sides of the coin: The Bull Case: The Efficiency Unleased Play Azure is shifting focus toward infrastructure economics. By deploying internal custom chips like the new Maia 300 next year, Microsoft is trying to break free from NVIDIA's margin crushing monopoly. By cutting back 20% of its costs, it allows Microsoft to use the money saved on this new transition. When these huge hardware investments finally begin to scale & monetise through enterprise Copilot, it will unleash a tidal wave of pure operating profit. The Bear Case: The ROI Nightmare The truth could be that the return on AI investment fail to matc
TOPThat 20% cut barely dents a USD115B capex bill. I care more about when AI ROI actually turns positive
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I think option ① matters most: whether EUV orders remain strong. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ supplies essential equipment for advanced logic and memory chips, so strong bookings would suggest chipmakers remain confident in long-term AI demand despite concerns about memory oversupply. For me, the key is not just whether ASML beats Q3 estimates, but whether management maintains its 2027 expansion plans and provides a confident outlook. Strong bookings would support the AI growth story, while weaker orders or delayed deliveries would raise concerns about future spending. I remain bullish on AI infrastructure long term, but I do not expect every semiconductor stock to rise together. I will focus on sustainable demand, competitive advantages and valuati
TOPEUV orders are not a clean AI readthrough though. Some of that can just be legacy server and memory capex getting pulled forward, and 2027 optimism can still be management selling the dream lol