$UNH 20261016 430.0 CALL$ Took profit Be water, my friend—stay calm, adapt, and let the market do its thing. Watch me pocket $15K in premiums in Oct. Jun/Jul/Aug/Sep: $1,721/$26,431/$34,103/$26,671 Oct 2026: $13,611
ASML Earnings Review: Profits Doubled, but Will Wall Street Wait Until 2027? $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ delivered strong Q3 2026 results, with revenue jumping 55% YoY and net profit more than doubling. The company also raised its full-year guidance for the third time this year, reinforcing confidence in the AI-driven semiconductor equipment cycle. However, investment gains boosted reported profits, while the equipment revenue mix deserves closer scrutiny. More importantly, investors may have to wait until June 2027 for an updated long-term financial outlook, even as demand threatens to exceed ASML's planned capacity through 2028. Core Financial Indicators – Q3 revenue reached €11.66 billion, up 55% YoY and 2
I agree most with @D1ane’s view that headline profits alone do not tell the whole story. For me, credit quality, loan-loss provisions, funding costs, and net interest margins all matter when evaluating whether a bank can sustain its earnings. I also find @nerdbull1669 ’s point about tangible book value important, especially when Treasury yields remain elevated. A bank may report solid profits, but hidden balance-sheet pressure and unrealised losses can still affect its long-term valuation. As for Berkshire trimming $Bank of America
$CIFR DIAGONAL 261120/261016 PUT 14.0/PUT 18.0$ 1️⃣ Why am I making this trade now? The data center and neocloud space is currently facing a "perfect storm" of negative sentiment—rising Treasury yields, Gartner's headline-grabbing report predicting AI CapEx doom, and CIFR's $850M convertible note offering triggering heavy institutional arbitrage shorting. However, I believe the market is mispricing CIFR by lumping it in with GPU-heavy speculators. CIFR is a power/infrastructure landlord with long-term hyperscaler backstops (AWS, Google-backed contracts). This current multi-week dump feels like a classic flush-out driven by convertible arbitrage hedging and short-seller fear-monge
I would lean towards $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ for the long term. AI demand is still driving the need for advanced chips, and the fact that customers are already discussing orders for 2029 & 2030 gives me confidence in its long-term growth potential. However, strong demand does not automatically mean the stock is cheap, especially after a strong rally. For Morgan Stanley, I like its diversified business model & wealth management segment, but trading income can fluctuate with market conditions. I would rather invest in a business with a strong competitive advantage & a clear long-term growth driver than rely too heavily on short-term market activity. Personally, I would not rush to buy either just because they have pulled back. I would k
🌟🌟🌟Barclays analyst Dan Levy dropped a bombshell note predicting that a monumental $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ & $SpaceX(SPCX)$ merger announcement could land before Tesla's December AGM. SpaceX would acquire Tesla in an all stock transaction at an expected ratio of 0.7 SpaceX shares per Tesla shares. Suddenly we are evaluating a complex multi trillion dollar hybrid. This merger is a stroke of genius. It combines the 2 companies into a single unstoppable vertical monopoly. It is also a seamless integration of AI & physical hardware. By putting rockets, satellites, EVs & Tesla bots under 1 roof, the synergy would be amazing. Elon Musk's combined stake of Tesla and SpaceX may result in h
For me, the Roadster reveal is exciting, but execution matters more than hype. After years of waiting, I hope $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ provides a credible production timeline and delivery details rather than just an impressive demonstration. 🚀 I am also watching Terafab and energy growth. TSMC confirming discussions is encouraging, but without a formal agreement, tangible benefits remain uncertain. The battery milestone is promising, though profitability is what matters. Ultimately, October 21 earnings matter most to me. I remain bullish on Tesla’s long-term AI, robotics and energy opportunities, but I prefer patience, disciplined risk management and real business
$GOOG Faces Downside Risk as $SMH Enters Correction Territory
Three charts to watch as tomorrow’s PPI data approaches. Oversold conditions could trigger tactical bounces, but the broader technical picture remains cautious. 🔹 $Alphabet(GOOG)$ — A higher low today adds another point to the uptrend, but bearish momentum suggests downside continuation could follow tomorrow. A break below the 20-DMA would weaken the structure and open the way toward the lower Bollinger Band at $333. That level also aligns with a key monthly level and an ascending diagonal. 🔻 $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ — Semiconductors have entered correction territory, falling 12% in just six trading sessions. The rapid decline is pushing prices toward oversold conditions. A gap down tomorrow could t
1. CPI. "This is the diffusion of CPI inflation, measured similarly to Kevin Warsh's preferred PCE inflation diffusion metric. It's down." 2. Buybacks. "We are currently in peak earnings blackout, with just 24% of S&P 500 index weight outside repurchase blackout windows. That figure rises to ~55% by month-end, ~75% by November 3 (Midterm Election Day), and ~85% by November 9, as companies report earnings and trading windows reopen." 3. SPX streak. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 's streak of consecutive days without a decline of at least 1% ends at 53. It was the longest since 2020. See full dashboard here. 4. Semis corrections cluster. "The semis are now in their 4th 10%+ correction since early June. That's the most corrections inside
Memory Is Crashing While AI Compute Chips Rally. I Think the Semiconductor Trade Is Splitting Into Two Different Markets.
Something very interesting is happening inside semiconductors. Memory stocks are being crushed. Yet Nvidia, AMD and Intel have shown relative strength. At first glance, that looks contradictory. If investors are worried about AI spending, should the entire semiconductor complex not be falling together? I do not think so. The market is beginning to separate AI compute scarcity from memory scarcity. And that distinction could determine where I put my next dollar. 🔥 WHY MONEY IS ROTATING FROM MEMORY INTO COMPUTE For much of 2026, the semiconductor trade was beautifully simple: AI demand rises → chips become scarce → memory becomes scarce → pricing rises → margins explode → almost everything semiconductor goes up. That simplicity is disappearing. Memory now faces a new question from China's CX
Micron (MU) And Other Chip Stock Face Competition Fears From Bears
$Micron Technology(MU)$ Micron Technology is stuck in a spiral amid concerns about Chinese competition and the artificial-intelligence trade in general. But shareholder returns could help it rebound, according to analysts. Micron shares were down 4.4% at $873.70 in premarket trading. A slide that began at the start of the week on news that China's CXMT was developing a new memory chip has been compounded by fears about the wider AI trade. South Korean memory companies Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were even harder hit, dropping 9.5% and 11%, respectively, in local trading on Thursday. But the worries are overblown, according to UBS analyst Nicolas Gaudois. He notes that CXMT's so-called 4F square design (4F2
Weekly Futures Options Watch: Bulls Beware! Massive Deep OTMNasdaq Put Trade Emerges
Futures options are options on futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across expiries and strike prices. They can help gauge market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance levels. However, they do not directly indicate a bullish or bearish view. Today, we examine the day-on-day changes in large futures options trades on October 14 versus October 13. These are the latest reported block trade flows and offer valuable market signals. The latest open interest distribution by strike shows no clear directional consensus on October 14. Crude oil positions remain defensive, while new flows are pricing tail risks in both directions. Nasdaq put options continue to lead in open interest, volume, and net additions, sending the str
🐶📈 OPTIONS PUPPY DAILY MARKET UPDATE — 15 OCTOBER 2026
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 🔥 Hot CPI, TSMC Earnings, AI Stocks, Interest Rates, TLT, SPY & QQQ 🐶 1️⃣ My Market View: Wall Street Has an Inflation Problem Again! Good morning, fellow investors! 🐾 Today, my Options Puppy market notebook is watching two major forces fighting for control of Wall Street: inflation and the AI investment boom. Yesterday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in hotter than expected. Headline inflation increased by 3.7% year over year in September, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 2.6%. Headline CPI rose 0.6% month over month, and core CPI increased 0.3%. Rising gasoline prices were a major contributor, but inflationary pressure was not limited to energy. Shelter, use
CXMT Just Wiped Another Chunk Off Memory Stocks. I Think the Market Is Pricing the Threat Before CXMT Has Proven It.
This memory correction has gone from uncomfortable to brutal. Micron has fallen from above $1,000 to roughly $874 in the screenshot. SanDisk is around $1,336. SK Hynix has been hammered, and leveraged memory products have suffered even more. The immediate culprit is China's CXMT. Its new 4F² DRAM architecture potentially allows more memory cells to fit into the same area, and CXMT says it intends to launch server-grade DDR5 products using the technology before year-end. That matters. But there is one enormous distinction investors should not overlook: CXMT has demonstrated technological progress. It has not yet demonstrated high-volume, high-yield, economically competitive production. The market is currently pricing those two things almost as if they were the same. I think that is prematur
During the past few days, I have been cautioning subscribers about a spike in volatility, backed by technical factors that were clearly documented, including cracks in the technology sector. More specifically, semiconductors are currently printing a bearish week: $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ are both down -6% for the week, and $Micron Technology(MU)$ has declined -11%. Last night, I highlighted the risks of a decline considering price action for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , since the structure for both indices had a downside mag
$SPCX Must Hold $146 as $TSLA Targets $350 and $IREN Breaks Support
The common thread here is support. Some names are testing zones that have held before; others have already broken key levels. The difference between a bounce and another leg lower comes down to what price does next. 🔹 $SpaceX(SPCX)$ | Bulls need $146 Back at the 1H Smart Money Zone for another test. Buyers have stepped in here several times, but the level needs to hold again if bulls are to stay in control. 🔻 $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ | $350 comes into focus Price is rejecting inside the 1H bearish Smart Money Zone, just as discussed in the last video. The current expectation is a fade toward $350. That’s the level to reassess if price gets there. 🎯 $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)
CPI Rose Again. AI Hardware Had Three More Problems.
The market: inflation returned as AI hardware faced both rate and earnings pressure The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 1.11 per cent to 7,718.94 on Wednesday, while $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ lost 1.97 per cent to close at US$728.95. Headline CPI rose 3.7 per cent from a year earlier in September, above the market's 3.6 per cent expectation and August's 3.4 per cent reading. The return of inflation pushed rate expectations higher, and technology fell substantially more than the broader market. As rate expectations move higher, the present value of future earnings falls; the more a share price depends on growth further into the future, the greater the valuation pressure. AI hardware also f
💰 Stocks to Watch Today, 15 October: I’m Shopping the Fear, But Not Every Dip Deserves My Money
Today feels very different from the easy momentum days. Nasdaq is down nearly 2%. Hot CPI has brought the higher-for-longer narrative roaring back. AI names are being deleveraged. Memory stocks have another headache from CXMT. And suddenly, stocks investors were desperate to buy weeks ago look frightening again. I actually like markets like this. Not because I enjoy seeing my portfolio red 😅, but because fear creates price separation. Good companies fall. Questionable companies fall. Speculative companies fall. The opportunity is figuring out which is which. My five watches today are Micron (MU), Circle (CRCL), SanDisk (SNDK), Rezolve AI (RZLV) and Beyond Meat (BYND). But I am treating each very differently. 🔥 MU: THE ONE I MOST WANT TO BUY LOWER MU around $874 is becoming very interesting