First, let me update you on my recent trading moves. I haven't been particularly active in equities lately; instead, I've maintained a light short position on the Euro and locked in some profits from a crude oil bull calendar spread (buying the near month and selling the deferred month three months out). Currently, my dprofits are entirely concentrated in my futures account. Today, I closed my crude oil calendar spread position, booking a modest profit over the past few days. Remember our trading rule? "Rest during minor volatility, rest during extreme volatility, and no rest when there is no volatility". When a major risk event triggers massive market swings, our best approach in the futures market is to minimize our trade frequency, increase our win rate, and appropriately reduce our pos

Oil price rise depends on how long the current war lasts and the Hormuz strait comes out of conflict.  With approximately 20% of global oil passing through this route and nearly 90% fueling Asian economy, all sources point that production or reserves are not the limiting but the shipping is the crucial bottleneck. My guess is oil price may go up above $100 in the short term as no signs of war aggression slowing down. 

U.S. crude oil futures (WTI) exploded to a 52-week high near $91 per barrel on March 07, 2026, surging over 13% in a single session as the Middle East war paralyzed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for the fifth day straight, choking off 20% of global oil supply. 😤 Brent crude blasted past $92, up 8.82% as markets priced in a prolonged "long-war" scenario with shipping halted and Kuwait slashing production due to storage overflows – Citigroup estimates 7-11 million barrels daily lost, fueling the biggest weekly gain since Covid volatility in 2020. This "Strait of Hormuz premium" has skyrocketed to 86% odds of closure on prediction markets, amplifying fears of supply squeezes that could catapult prices above $100 if disruptions drag on. But Trump's plan for U.S. Navy escorts and

It will creep up for some time , and might hang higher for a while yet

Crude’s surge to ~$81 WTI is largely a geopolitical risk premium, not yet a structural supply shock. The key variable is still the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of global oil flows move through that chokepoint, so even the perception of disruption can add $10–$20 to prices quickly. Bull case for $100+: Any partial disruption to Hormuz tanker traffic. Insurance premiums spike and shipping slows. OPEC spare capacity cannot respond fast enough. Speculative flows pile into energy as a hedge. In that scenario, $95–$105 Brent is very plausible short term. Bear case toward $73: No physical disruption actually occurs. The U.S. releases barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). War risk premium fades like previous Middle East spikes. Macro demand concerns re-emerge. Historically, geopolitic

A move above $100 is possible, but it depends on whether the situation becomes a true supply disruption rather than only a geopolitical risk premium. Bullish case (towards $95–$110): 1. Strait of Hormuz risk. Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the strait. Even partial disruption or tanker insurance spikes could remove several million barrels per day from the market. 2. Low spare capacity outside OPEC+. If Gulf exports slow, the market has limited short-term buffers. 3. War-risk hedging. Funds often buy crude futures aggressively during geopolitical shocks, amplifying the price spike. Bearish case (pullback to $73–$75): 1. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release by the U.S. to stabilise energy prices. 2. Demand elasticity. Above $90, demand destruction historically appears qui

Global markets just got a fresh dose of geopolitical drama. The latest conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has everyone watching one thing closely — oil prices. And whenever oil gets emotional, markets tend to behave like a hyperactive puppy chasing a tennis ball. So instead of panicking, the Options Puppy approach is simple: Find volatility → Sell options → Collect premium → Wag tail. Let’s break it down. ⸻ 🐶 The Big Macro Bone: US Strikes Iran The recent US strikes on Iran are unusual for two main reasons. First, this looks like a potential regime-change style conflict, driven mainly by the US and Israel, without the usual strong support from European allies. Second, there is no clear endgame strategy yet. The official reason is to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but the

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  🌍🛢️📉 Crude Oil Breaks $80: Supply Chokepoints Collide with Equity Fragility 📉🛢️🌍 🌐 Cross-Asset Shock Ripples Through the Macro Landscape Crude oil futures have decisively breached the $80 per barrel threshold, the highest level since Jan25, as escalating Middle East disruptions ripple through global markets. Energy shocks rarely remain isolated. When oil spikes, the effects cascade through inflation expectations, monetary policy outlooks, equity multiples and volatility regimes. West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $80.32 (+7.58%) Brent Crude: $85.31 I am

🐶 Options Puppy: Middle East Tension, Oil Rockets & Where I’m Selling Options Global markets just got a fresh dose of geopolitical drama. The latest conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has everyone watching one thing closely — oil prices. And whenever oil gets emotional, markets tend to behave like a hyperactive puppy chasing a tennis ball. So instead of panicking, the Options Puppy approach is simple: Find volatility → Sell options → Collect premium → Wag tail. Let’s break it down. ⸻ 🐶 The Big Macro Bone: US Strikes Iran The recent US strikes on Iran are unusual for two main reasons. First, this looks like a potential regime-change style conflict, driven mainly by the US and Israel, without the usual strong support from European allies. Second, there is no clear endgame strategy

Brent crude is up 15% in two days on Middle East tensions—but CVX, COP, and XOM profit even if oil prices drop! With rock-bottom break-evens and decades of dividend growth, are these oil giants your portfolio’s safe haven? Which one do you trust most to weather volatility—Chevron’s cash flow, Conoco’s falling break-even, or Exxon’s profitability? Share your picks below! Over the weekend, U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered an abrupt escalation of tensions in the Middle East, sending global oil markets soaring. International benchmark Brent crude prices rose more than 5% today, with a cumulative gain of over 15% in the past two trading sessions, briefly approaching the $80 per barrel mark. The oil price surge has quickly spilled over to the stock market: ConocoPhillips’ share price ha

The current market landscape is heavily influenced by the sudden escalation of conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran as of early March 2026. After a period of oversupply in late 2025, the "war premium" has returned aggressively. Can Crude Oil Cross the $100 Mark? Yes, it is a distinct possibility. While Brent crude is currently trading in the $81–$84 range (up nearly 20% since January), analysts from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wood Mackenzie suggest $100 is the next major psychological and technical resistance level. The path to $100 depends on two primary factors: The Strait of Hormuz: This is the ultimate "black swan" trigger. Approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through this narrow waterway. Iran has already issued warnings to shipping, and any confirmed blockad

Oil prices are surging on Middle East tensions, and ExxonMobil (XOM) is in the spotlight with BofA hiking its target price to $151! 43 years of dividend growth + oil price upside—does this make XOM a buy? Or are you worried the geopolitical premium will fade fast? Will you jump on the energy rally, or wait for a pullback? Share your thoughts on XOM and the oil market below! As Middle East geopolitical tensions erupted over the weekend, the global crude oil market witnessed long-awaited sharp volatility on Monday. Amid shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over the safety of Iranian oil facilities, international oil prices skyrocketed like a rocket. Amid this turmoil, a familiar name has once again captured all investors’ attention—oil giant

The move in oil is logical given the location involved. The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical energy chokepoint in the world. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through it daily. When markets hear the word blockade, traders immediately price a geopolitical risk premium. However, whether crude reaches $100+ depends on three key factors. --- 1. Duration of the disruption A temporary threat usually adds $5–15 risk premium to oil. If the blockade is symbolic or short-lived, Brent likely stabilises around $80–90. Markets tend to fade geopolitical spikes once shipping resumes. Oil only sustainably breaks $100 if the disruption lasts weeks or months. --- 2. Actual supply loss Iran produces about 3 million barrels/day, but the bigger issue is transit. Through Hormuz flow roughly: Saudi ex

Oil Price to $100? Polymarket Ceasefire Bets Crash to 35% and USO Options Pop Polymarket prediction markets show only a 35% chance of a Iran-US ceasefire by March 31, though odds improve to 69% by June 30. This uncertainty has sent shockwaves through oil price, with $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$   surging over 12% in this week as the conflict intensifies. Energy majors have posted impressive year-to-date gains, including $Occidental(OXY)$   up 30%, $Chevron(CVX)$   up 23%, $Petroleo Brasileir

Crude can possibly surge above $100 with panic fears of severe supply disruptions.

it's gonna go up. just hold tight your stocks. if you hold good stocks... don't have to worry

best time to buy EV and EV stocks. this is the moment EV will finally break out and catch on.  closing the hormuz is the final nail in the oil industry coffin.

I believe it will go on a little while simply because the us president does not seem to have a solid plan. While it is simple to say that the war seeks to force a regime change, it is worth taking into account the view that the bombardment and air superiority can only achieve so much on the ground. In the medium to long term, the idea of low(er) cost weapons, specifically one way attack drones, should become a priority for every nation's military force. Extrapolation would therefore mean that whoever comes up with a good and economical counter (not costly systems firing off missiles that cost millions of dollars) measure would rake in the money too.

Bank of America strategist Blanch stated bluntly that if Iran attacks nearby facilities, Brent could instantly break above $100, with European gas prices surpassing €60. JPMorgan’s Kaneva added a critical detail: if the conflict drags on for more than three weeks, Gulf oil could have “nowhere to go.” Once storage capacity is exhausted, producers would be forced to halt output — potentially sending oil straight to $120.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ surged 7% today, touching $76 in premarket trading. $Natural Gas - main 2604(NGmain)$ jumped nearly 5% in a single session, while precious metals lagged behind. The real eye of the storm lies in the Strait of Hormuz — the choke point of global energy supply is being squeezed.