Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 18May2026) Key Economic Releases to Watch The coming week features several closely watched releases that could shape market sentiment, particularly around demand expectations, monetary policy, manufacturing activity, and labour market conditions. · Crude Oil Inventories: This release will be a key reference point for assessing supply conditions and expected production trends relative to demand. · FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes are likely to influence market expectations for upcoming interest rate decisions and may also provide context for the transition in Federal Reserve leadership. · Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May): The previous reading was 26.7. This indicator will help gauge the direction and pace of manufacturing activity. · I

Last week, the pendulum oscillating between Jobs and Inflation reports have swung back to Jobs. Did the reports manage to exert any influence on US market sentiments, let’s find out. Jobs & other US reports out this week include: Tue, 05 May 2026 - US Trade balance for March 2026. Tue, 05 May 2026 - S&P final US services PMI for April 2026. Tue, 05 May 2026 - Jobs opening & Labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) for March 2026. Tue, 05 May 2026 - ISM services for April 2026. Wed, 06 May 2026 - ADP Non-farm payroll report for April 2026. Thu, 07 May 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & continuing. Fri, 08 May 2026 - US Consumer sentiments (Prelim) for May 2026. Fri, 08 May 2026 - US Non-farm payroll for April 2026.. US Trade Balance. The US trade balance report for March 2026, showed t

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 11May2026) Housing Market Existing home sales for April are forecast at 4.05 million units, up from the previous 3.98 million. This is a useful indicator of the overall health of the real estate market. Inflation Data The most closely watched economic release in the coming week will be the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). The forecast is 3.7%, compared with the previous 3.3%. If inflation rises as expected, market volatility may increase. Core CPI will also be important to watch, with a forecast of 0.3% versus the previous 0.2%. Bond Market Signals The bond market remains an important reference point as investors weigh opportunities in stocks versus bonds, with interest rates playing a key role in that decision. This is why the upcoming 10-year

Quiet Week. That's Actually The Goal. Mathematical Money | May 10, 2026 I was away on holiday for most of this week. Light on screen time. Light on trading. Seven trades over the whole week — for context, recent weeks have been running 24 to 49 trades. This week was the quietest the book has had in months. And honestly, that's how it's supposed to look. Most of what I write about on this feed is the active part of the strategy — the rolls, the entries, the loss-takes, the regime adjustments. That stuff makes for better posts. But the truth about a properly built options book is that the active days are the exception, not the rule. Most weeks should look more like this one. Let me show you what actually happened. The Trades That Did Happen MARA puts decayed off cleanly. I had 40 contracts o

Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of "extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace." Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated "Operation Liberty" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the "acceptance of Pakistani mediation." During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-

There were only a handful of US economic reports out last week. As we look backwards, they really did not impact US market at all. Is this even possible ? Reports out last week: Tue, 28 Apr 2026 - US Consumer confidence report for April 2026. Wed, 29 Apr 2026 - US Trade balance in goods for March 2026. Thu, 30 Apr 2026 - US Jobless claims - weekly & continuing. Thu, 30 Apr 2026 - US Gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1 2026. Thu, 30 Apr 2026 - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) for March 2026. Fri, 01 May 2026 - S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI (final) for April 2026. US Consumer confidence index (CCI) - April 2026. The US Consumer Confidence report was a mild upside surprise, with Conference Board’s headline index rose to 92.8, by +0.6 points from upwardly revised March 2026’s

April Closed Strong. Most Of It Wasn't Me. Mathematical Money | May 2, 2026 April was the best month this account has had in a long time. Almost 30% on the month. Before anyone DMs asking what I bought — slow down. This is not a "look how clever I am" post. The opposite. I want to walk through this honestly, because if I let a headline percentage stand by itself, half of you will read it wrong and the other half will assume the entire thing came from some kind of genius call. Neither is true. Let me decompose it. Where The Money Actually Came From MARA stock recovery did the bulk of the work. On April 1 the stock was around $8.86. On April 30 it closed at $11.99. That's a 35% recovery in a single month on a position I was already holding. The vast majority of the month's gain — roughly 85%

Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b

Today, let’s talk about one of the hottest topics in the investment world recently: the sharp rally in the U.S. semiconductor sector. It is fair to say that, whether we look at the fundamentals and financial data or at market price performance, the semiconductor sector has become a major driver of the recent rise in U.S. equities, and arguably the dominant one. As we all know, in the recent performance of U.S. equity gains, large technology companies—especially the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—have delivered the largest share of the market’s beta gains. At the same time, in the upward revisions to average earnings-per-share expectations for the S&P 500, semiconductor names such as Nvidia and Micron have also made the biggest contributions. However, even in last week’s market ra

Recently, the S&P 500 has maintained strength near its highs, but analyzing from multiple dimensions such as valuation, fund flows, and insider trading reveals that the internal market is not experiencing consistent expansion. The current US stock market is closer to a phase where 'index resilience remains strong, but structural divergence continues to deepen': At the index level, it is still supported by leading heavyweight stocks and capital inflow, but absolute stock-bond valuations are weak, sector valuations are diverging, insider trading signals and the internal strength disparities among the M7 all suggest that the constraints of operating at high levels have not disappeared. This article will systematically review the structural characteristics and potential constraints of curr

On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm. Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC Data The CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

Sell in May and Go Away?  Why Not Pivot into XLU ETF?  🌟🌟🌟 April 2026 just went into the history books.  We didn't just climb, we roared.  With the S&P500 up over 10% marking its best month since November 2020 and closing at a fresh record high, the emotional whiplash is real. What should Investors Do in May? The Chaser:  This is one of the best 3 months rallies in history.  The momentum is undeniable, powered by massive earnings beats and an relentless AI surge.  To sell now is to fear the unknown, to sit on the sidelines while new fortunes are made at highs.  Holding cash may mean that inflation is eating away at it. The Profit Taker :  The voice of caution whispers not to be greedy.  After a 10% gain in one month, the air is getting

Current Fiscal Landscape. As of 20 Apr 2026, Singapore evening, US national debt stands at $39.14 trillion. This is about 120 –125% of US’s current GDP and it is fast approaching the psychological & economic threshold of $40 trillion. (see below) In contrast, on 20 Jan 2025, when Trump assumed the Oval Office for his 2nd term, US national debt stood at approx. $36.22 trillion. In a short span of 15 months, the current administration has managed to successfully pile on an additional $2.92 trillion, that is about a +8% increase in absolute debt OR an average increase of nearly $200 billion /month - instead of reducing national debt as promised during campaign trial. Attempts to cut Federal spending included: Trump’s brainchild of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), through ma

Last Week's Recap 1. Moderating Market: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Add ~1% as April Momentum Cools Moderating market — S&P 500 and NASDAQ both added ~1% to fresh records; Dow edged up 0.5%, still 1.4% below its all-time high. Fed transition — Fed held rates unchanged; Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Powell cleared a Senate panel, teeing up a full Senate vote. Bullish April — NASDAQ +15.3% (best month since Apr 2020); S&P 500 +10.4% (best since Nov 2020); Dow +7.1% (best since Nov 2024). Earnings surge — S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth forecast jumped to 27.1% from 15.0% after mega-cap tech beats, per FactSet. GDP comeback — Q1 GDP grew at a 2.0% annual rate, up from 0.5% in Q4 2025. PC

Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see "who is buying and who is selling." CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun

For week ending Fri, 17 Apr 2026, there were a handful of ‘significant’ US economic reports released. Did they influence US market sentiments were merely published as scheduled ? Let’s find out. (see below) Tue, 14 Apr 2026 - US Producer price index (PPI) for March 2026. Wed, 15 Apr 2026 - US Home builder confidence index for March 2026. Wed, 15 Apr 2026 - Fed Beige book. Thu, 16 Apr 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & continuing. US Producer Price Index (PPI). The US producer inflation report released by Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) for March 2026, was softer than expected: Headline PPI (MoM) rose to +0.5% vs 1.1% forecast vs a downwards revised February 2026’s +0.5%; suggesting a plateau rather than an acceleration. Headline PPI (YoY) rose to +4.0% vs 4.6% forecast vs February 2026