S&P Target 6500? Is It Safe to Invest at High Levels?

With $.SPX(.SPX)$ recently surpassing the 6,000 point, major institutions have expressed optimism about the U.S. stock market's outlook for next year: Morgan Stanley: Set a base-case year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 at 6,350 points, with a bullish scenario target of 7,400 points. ---------- Will you still invest in US stocks despite of high valuations and low risk premium? Can $.SPX(.SPX)$ hit 6500 as analysts suggest?

avatarDoTrading
2024-11-09

Post-Election Euphoria on Wall Street

The Market’s Reaction and Performance Index Following Donald Trump’s re-election, U.S. markets experienced a substantial rally as major indices climbed to unprecedented highs. The $.SPX(.SPX)$ ended the week up 4.7%, the $.DJI(.DJI)$ rose 4.6%, and the $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ ncreased 5.7%… $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ … , making it the best week of 2023 for all three indices. This surge reflects optimism surrounding Trump’s anticipated pro-business policies, which include tax cuts and reduced regulation that could drive corporate growth. The clarity provided by a decisive e
Post-Election Euphoria on Wall Street
avatarETF_Tracker
2024-11-12

$DXYZ rose 223.5% last week Because of Elon Musk and SPACE X

$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ rose 223.5% last week and rose another 17.21% on Monday.The rise of DXYZ is mainly attributed to the continued benefit of SPACE X & OPEN AI, the fund's main holdings, after Trump was elected the 47th President of the United States.The reason is that people expect Elon Musk, as Trump's biggest supporter, and his startup SPACE X may receive more orders in the future.1. Many tiger friends may not know much about $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ Destiny Tech100, stock code DXYZ, which was listed in March 2024, is somewhat different from ordinary US stock companies and ETFs. DXYZ is neither an ordinary enterprise nor an ETF, but a closed-end fund management company registered under t
$DXYZ rose 223.5% last week Because of Elon Musk and SPACE X
avatarTiger_comments
2024-11-07

FOMC Rate Cut Tonight! Can S&P Hit 6000 This Friday?

After US election results, investors are now turning their attention to today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.Powell will avoid answering election-related questions, striving to remain politically neutral. Typically, the Fed announces its rate decision in the early hours of Thursday, but this time it has been postponed to Friday to distance it from political events.The market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but the key lies in the Fed’s policy guidance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25 bps cut in November.1. Will "Trump trade" lead to reflation?Trump's victory signals faster economic growth and higher inflation. Trump’s proposed tax cuts and deficit spending could lead to reflation. He has also considered replacing the Fed leadership
FOMC Rate Cut Tonight! Can S&P Hit 6000 This Friday?
avatarTigerOptions
2024-11-19

Market Report For 18 November

The stock market action was driven by several factors, including anticipation around major retail earnings, political shifts, and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions. Despite some mixed signals, market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic. Key Earnings Reports Investors are closely watching $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ and $Target(TGT)$ as both companies are scheduled to release their earnings today. Data suggests strong expectations, especially for Walmart, which has had a solid year bolstered by grocery sales and international expansion. The performance of these retail giants will serve as a bellwether for consumer demand during the early holiday season. However, the exact results are yet to be announced, and the m
Market Report For 18 November

What will Trump brings to Fed Monetary Policy?

The November 2024 FOMC meeting cut rates by 25 basis points as the market expected, with the target range adjusted to 4.5%-4.75%.The Fed adopted a more flexible monetary policy in response to the current economic situation.Powell emphasized the complexity of the current job market and inflation situationIn the meeting statement, the Federal Reserve's description of the job market from "slowdown" to "general easing", and at the same time the statement on inflation was also fine-tuned to remove the expectation that inflation will continue to declineThese changes reflect the Fed's assessment of the economic situation has been adjusted, but overall did not deviate from its objectives.Future monetary policy will depend on changes in economic data rather than a predetermined path.This open-ended
What will Trump brings to Fed Monetary Policy?

Snowflake Surge 20%+ on Q3 Earnings, while Buffett Sold Off his stake

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ surged 20% after hours after it beat market expectations and lifted guidance in Q3 FY2025.Ever since Warren Buffett's $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ liquidated its position in SNOW in Q2, it has been on a path back up.Financials vs. market expectationsQ3 revenue was $942 million, up 28.3% year-over-year and significantly ahead of market expectations of $898 million.Non-GAAP EPS was $0.20, again beating market expectations of $0.15.Business Performance by SegmentProduct Revenue: Third quarter product revenue reached $900.0 million, an increase of 29% year-over-year, exceeding market estimates of $856.6 million and reflecting Snowflake's success in product expansion and customer attraction.R
Snowflake Surge 20%+ on Q3 Earnings, while Buffett Sold Off his stake
avatarKYHBKO
2024-11-17

News and my thoughts from last week (18Nov24) - audit, energy, Berkshire

News and my thoughts from last week (18Nov24) If we keep views binary and polarized, society runs the risk of being split by opinions and perspectives. We need to return to days when we can live together despite our differences. Differences do not make one enemy. The Pentagon just failed its seventh audit in a row. The nation’s largest government agency is unable to fully account for its budget of over $824 billion. They don’t even know where billions of taxpayers’ money is going. Efficiency is coming - X user America What DOGE brings is transparency and accountability. The taxpayers should know how the money is spent, what it is spent on, the benefits of such spending, and who the money goes to. Every government and business needs a DOGE. Energy is the next area of concern for the develop
News and my thoughts from last week (18Nov24) - audit, energy, Berkshire

How Trip.com became a better choice in Chinese stocks?

$Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$ announced Q3 earnings before the market on Nov 18th and rose more than 3% in subsequent U.S. trading, and $TRIP.COM-S(09961)$ rose more than 5% on Nov 19th Hong Kong stock open.The market is relatively receptive to its results.The overall performance was good, but the actual outperformance was not significant compared to the company's previously given guidance.Since Ctrip was the Chinese stock with relatively strong overall performance over the past year, investors' expectations were also relatively high.Since domestic demand for alcohol travel is not particularly buoyant at the moment, it is also relatively difficult to expect significant growth on the revenue side, relyin
How Trip.com became a better choice in Chinese stocks?

Huge Volatility on Earnings, why is Cisco so cautious?

$Cisco(CSCO)$ reported FY25 Q1 results after the U.S. stock market closed on Nov. 13, and while overall revenue was down year-over-year, it was still better than the market's expectations, driven primarily by AI demand.However, optimism about order growth was less than market expectations, so the company's 2025 guidance was revised up in time, still slightly below market expectations.CSCO was down 3% at one point after hours.Earnings Overview.Revenue of $13.84 billion in Q1 of FY25 ended October 26 was down about 6% year-over-year, slightly above market expectations of $13.77 billion, but an improvement from the 10% decline in the previous quarter.Excluding Splunk orders, product orders grew only 9% year-over-year.Earnings per share (EPS) came in
Huge Volatility on Earnings, why is Cisco so cautious?
avatarMrzorro
2024-11-20
Wall Street Banks Boost 2025 U.S. Stock Forecasts to 6,500: Will U.S. Equities Maintain Global Leadership? The S&P 500 has climbed more than 24% year-to-date, with Wall Street maintaining a bullish stance on U.S. stocks. Analysts predict the benchmark could hit approximately 6,500 points by 2025, suggesting a 10% upside from Tuesday's close at 5,917. Morgan Stanley: Earnings to Drive S&P 500 to 6,500 by 2025 Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson, known for his bearish stance, has revised his target for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$   to 6,500 points by 2025. In a bull scenario, the target could reach as high as 7,400 points. This marks a notable increase from his June forecast of 5,400 poi
avatarTiger_Contra
2024-10-24

💰A Tool to Bet on High Dividend & Double Digital Return ETFs for 2025

As the US Fed begins its interest rate cut cycle, the market's expectations for a decline in US interest rates are growing. The US market has set off a wave of high-dividend investment, and more and more investors are choosing to invest in high-dividend products.High-dividend ETFs mainly determine the constituent stocks and holding ratios based on "cash dividends and dividends". Investing in high-dividend ETFs can regularly obtain considerable returns.Dividends can be a powerful source of income. Some investors harness them by investing in dividend stocks, but there's another option for those who want to save time on stock research: high-dividend ETFs.Takeaways$Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF(KBWY)$ and
💰A Tool to Bet on High Dividend & Double Digital Return ETFs for 2025
avatarMickey082024
2024-11-13

Are Stock now overvalued? Pullback or Surge?

$.SPX(.SPX)$ The recent S&P 500 rally, reaching around 6017, has pushed the market into overbought conditions, leading analysts to anticipate a possible pullback or consolidation before further advances. Currently, around 83% of stocks in the index are trading above their 50-day moving average, a level that historically signals a near-term correction, as observed in previous market peaks in 2023 and earlier. This overextension often leads to a healthy short-term pullback, which would help stabilize the market and set it up for sustained future growth. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has moved into overbought territory, signaling potential for a pullback, particularly as investor sentiment grows cautious with
Are Stock now overvalued? Pullback or Surge?
avatarJacksNiffler
2024-11-19

What is Tesla's Elon Risk?

First of all, I own $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and am a stakeholder.Discussion is for personal opinion only.Tesla has been on an upward trajectory since Trump's election victory, and this rally has nothing to do with fundamentals (since it's not earnings season either), but rather the "realization" of a previously suppressed market.As I said before, Tesla is waiting for an opportunity?--An opportunity to cash in on Trump's rise to power.Now that he's cashed in, Elon Musk has taken it a step further by taking on a key government position - the "DOGE", or Department of Organization of the United States.This important official position of personnel appointment and dismissal is actually very important.But it's also very easy to offend!That's not necessarily
What is Tesla's Elon Risk?
avatarHMH
2024-11-07

FOMO, Tech and Treasuries: Is Now the Perfect Storm for a Year-End Market Rally?

The Federal Reserve’s potential 25-basis-point rate cut has markets buzzing, and three pressing questions arise: Is it a good time to buy the dip in U.S. Treasuries? Will the Fed's rate cut push the S&P 500 higher? And is there reason to be bullish on a year-end rally? Is It a Good Time to Buy U.S. Treasuries? The Fed’s policy shift might signal that inflation concerns are easing, potentially creating value in long-term U.S. Treasuries. With yields having risen sharply over recent months, buying on the dip could be appealing for investors expecting stabilization or even a reversal in bond yields. Rate cuts traditionally boost bond prices, and if the economy cools in line with Fed expectations, Treasuries could offer strong returns. However, with ongoing inflationary pressures, investor
FOMO, Tech and Treasuries: Is Now the Perfect Storm for a Year-End Market Rally?
avatarHMH
2024-11-21

S&P 6500 in Sight? How to Ride the Bull Without Getting Trampled!

The S&P 500 has recently broken the 6,000-point barrier, sparking debate among investors about whether the index can continue its ascent to levels projected by major institutions. Morgan Stanley’s base-case target of 6,350 points by the end of 2025, and their bullish scenario target of 7,400, paints a picture of sustained optimism for U.S. equities. However, with valuations soaring and the risk premium narrowing, many are asking: Is it still safe to invest in U.S. stocks at these elevated levels? Let’s dive into the dynamics shaping the market outlook and discuss how I would approach positioning in this environment. The Case for Optimism Easing Monetary Policy: Recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have breathed new life into equity markets. Lower interest rates reduce the discount r
S&P 6500 in Sight? How to Ride the Bull Without Getting Trampled!
avatarHMH
2024-11-09

The Santa Claus Rally Begins? Fed’s Rate Cut and the S&P 6000 Milestone—What's Next for Investors?

The milestone has arrived: the S&P 500 has breached the 6000 level, reaching 6012 following a closely watched Federal Reserve move. Thursday’s 0.25 percentage point rate cut has captured the market’s attention, marking the second cut this season after September’s 0.5-point reduction. As investors and analysts assess the latest developments, questions are emerging about the possibility of a year-end rally and, more importantly, how long it may last. Let's dive deeper into the factors contributing to this rally, evaluate potential scenarios, and discuss positioning strategies for navigating the remainder of the year. What’s Driving This Surge? The current rally is the product of several contributing factors, with monetary policy taking centre stage. The Fed’s back-to-back rate cuts repre
The Santa Claus Rally Begins? Fed’s Rate Cut and the S&P 6000 Milestone—What's Next for Investors?
avatarHMH
2024-11-14

Positioning for Potential Fed Rate Moves Amid Rising Inflation and Political Considerations

Let’s discuss the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December, and what I believe this could mean for our trading strategies and portfolios. As of October, the U.S. CPI data showed an increase to 2.6% year-over-year from the previous 2.4%, suggesting an uptick in inflationary pressures. Notably, the core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—remained steady at 3.3%. Given these developments, interest rate traders have revised their expectations for the December 18 Fed meeting, raising the likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut to 80%, a marked shift from 58% earlier in the week. So, is another 25 bps cut on the horizon? And what might this mean for traders and investors as we close out the year? The Fed’s
Positioning for Potential Fed Rate Moves Amid Rising Inflation and Political Considerations

Trump’s Approach to Immigration and Energy Could Address U.S. Labour Shortage and Inflation Worries

Trump must focus on a few key issues moving forward. First, although global assets are hitting new highs, domestic purchasing power has not kept pace.  This article is written by Shernice, if you like my article please hit the like button.  The challenge lies in how to expand purchasing power while simultaneously controlling inflation. Trump's approach centers on significantly boosting American wages, which he believes can be achieved by removing illegal immigrants. Currently, there are nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. If they were all removed, a severe labour shortage in service sectors would likely trigger wage increases. However, concerns may arise that wage hikes could fuel inflation. Yet, as previously discussed with investment products, the real inflati
Trump’s Approach to Immigration and Energy Could Address U.S. Labour Shortage and Inflation Worries
avatarTiger V
2024-11-14

Inflation News Impact: Market Rebound Potential & Investment Opportunities

Overall Market Overview In October 2024, the U.S. annual inflation rate saw a slight uptick, rising to 2.6% from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase after seven months of either steady or declining inflation rates. Despite this, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 3.3%, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remain consistent. The market largely anticipated this uptick, and the overall market response may indicate a cautious optimism heading into the final quarter of 2024. The effects on different asset classes, particularly stocks and bonds, should be considered by investors looking to benefit from this development. Inflation Impact on S&P 500 The rise in inflation may influence the broader equity markets, particularly the S&P 500
Inflation News Impact: Market Rebound Potential & Investment Opportunities
avatarMickey082024
2024-11-14

December 24, Feb Rate Cut -25bps Is On The Way!

In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-over-year, up slightly from September’s rate of 2.4%. This uptick reflects rising inflation, marking the first increase since early 2024, largely due to shelter costs, which rose by 4.9% and contributed significantly to the monthly CPI. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 3.3% annually. Monthly inflation rose by 0.2%, in line with recent trends. Food prices saw a 2.1% increase year-over-year, with food away from home climbing 3.8%. Energy prices, however, declined by 4.9% year-over-year, largely due to drops in fuel oil and gasoline prices, which fell by 20.8% and 12.2%, respectively. This deceleration in energy costs helped moderate the overall inflation rate despite the rising shel
December 24, Feb Rate Cut -25bps Is On The Way!
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