To The Moon

First, let me update you on my recent trading moves. I haven't been particularly active in equities lately; instead, I've maintained a light short position on the Euro and locked in some profits from a crude oil bull calendar spread (buying the near month and selling the deferred month three months out). Currently, my dprofits are entirely concentrated in my futures account. Today, I closed my crude oil calendar spread position, booking a modest profit over the past few days. Remember our trading rule? "Rest during minor volatility, rest during extreme volatility, and no rest when there is no volatility". When a major risk event triggers massive market swings, our best approach in the futures market is to minimize our trade frequency, increase our win rate, and appropriately reduce our pos

U.S. crude oil futures (WTI) exploded to a 52-week high near $91 per barrel on March 07, 2026, surging over 13% in a single session as the Middle East war paralyzed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for the fifth day straight, choking off 20% of global oil supply. 😤 Brent crude blasted past $92, up 8.82% as markets priced in a prolonged "long-war" scenario with shipping halted and Kuwait slashing production due to storage overflows – Citigroup estimates 7-11 million barrels daily lost, fueling the biggest weekly gain since Covid volatility in 2020. This "Strait of Hormuz premium" has skyrocketed to 86% odds of closure on prediction markets, amplifying fears of supply squeezes that could catapult prices above $100 if disruptions drag on. But Trump's plan for U.S. Navy escorts and

It will creep up for some time , and might hang higher for a while yet

Crude’s surge to ~$81 WTI is largely a geopolitical risk premium, not yet a structural supply shock. The key variable is still the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of global oil flows move through that chokepoint, so even the perception of disruption can add $10–$20 to prices quickly. Bull case for $100+: Any partial disruption to Hormuz tanker traffic. Insurance premiums spike and shipping slows. OPEC spare capacity cannot respond fast enough. Speculative flows pile into energy as a hedge. In that scenario, $95–$105 Brent is very plausible short term. Bear case toward $73: No physical disruption actually occurs. The U.S. releases barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). War risk premium fades like previous Middle East spikes. Macro demand concerns re-emerge. Historically, geopolitic

A move above $100 is possible, but it depends on whether the situation becomes a true supply disruption rather than only a geopolitical risk premium. Bullish case (towards $95–$110): 1. Strait of Hormuz risk. Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the strait. Even partial disruption or tanker insurance spikes could remove several million barrels per day from the market. 2. Low spare capacity outside OPEC+. If Gulf exports slow, the market has limited short-term buffers. 3. War-risk hedging. Funds often buy crude futures aggressively during geopolitical shocks, amplifying the price spike. Bearish case (pullback to $73–$75): 1. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release by the U.S. to stabilise energy prices. 2. Demand elasticity. Above $90, demand destruction historically appears qui

Global markets just got a fresh dose of geopolitical drama. The latest conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has everyone watching one thing closely — oil prices. And whenever oil gets emotional, markets tend to behave like a hyperactive puppy chasing a tennis ball. So instead of panicking, the Options Puppy approach is simple: Find volatility → Sell options → Collect premium → Wag tail. Let’s break it down. ⸻ 🐶 The Big Macro Bone: US Strikes Iran The recent US strikes on Iran are unusual for two main reasons. First, this looks like a potential regime-change style conflict, driven mainly by the US and Israel, without the usual strong support from European allies. Second, there is no clear endgame strategy yet. The official reason is to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but the

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  🌍🛢️📉 Crude Oil Breaks $80: Supply Chokepoints Collide with Equity Fragility 📉🛢️🌍 🌐 Cross-Asset Shock Ripples Through the Macro Landscape Crude oil futures have decisively breached the $80 per barrel threshold, the highest level since Jan25, as escalating Middle East disruptions ripple through global markets. Energy shocks rarely remain isolated. When oil spikes, the effects cascade through inflation expectations, monetary policy outlooks, equity multiples and volatility regimes. West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $80.32 (+7.58%) Brent Crude: $85.31 I am

🐶 Options Puppy: Middle East Tension, Oil Rockets & Where I’m Selling Options Global markets just got a fresh dose of geopolitical drama. The latest conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has everyone watching one thing closely — oil prices. And whenever oil gets emotional, markets tend to behave like a hyperactive puppy chasing a tennis ball. So instead of panicking, the Options Puppy approach is simple: Find volatility → Sell options → Collect premium → Wag tail. Let’s break it down. ⸻ 🐶 The Big Macro Bone: US Strikes Iran The recent US strikes on Iran are unusual for two main reasons. First, this looks like a potential regime-change style conflict, driven mainly by the US and Israel, without the usual strong support from European allies. Second, there is no clear endgame strategy

Brent crude is up 15% in two days on Middle East tensions—but CVX, COP, and XOM profit even if oil prices drop! With rock-bottom break-evens and decades of dividend growth, are these oil giants your portfolio’s safe haven? Which one do you trust most to weather volatility—Chevron’s cash flow, Conoco’s falling break-even, or Exxon’s profitability? Share your picks below! Over the weekend, U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered an abrupt escalation of tensions in the Middle East, sending global oil markets soaring. International benchmark Brent crude prices rose more than 5% today, with a cumulative gain of over 15% in the past two trading sessions, briefly approaching the $80 per barrel mark. The oil price surge has quickly spilled over to the stock market: ConocoPhillips’ share price ha

The current market landscape is heavily influenced by the sudden escalation of conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran as of early March 2026. After a period of oversupply in late 2025, the "war premium" has returned aggressively. Can Crude Oil Cross the $100 Mark? Yes, it is a distinct possibility. While Brent crude is currently trading in the $81–$84 range (up nearly 20% since January), analysts from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wood Mackenzie suggest $100 is the next major psychological and technical resistance level. The path to $100 depends on two primary factors: The Strait of Hormuz: This is the ultimate "black swan" trigger. Approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through this narrow waterway. Iran has already issued warnings to shipping, and any confirmed blockad

Oil prices are surging on Middle East tensions, and ExxonMobil (XOM) is in the spotlight with BofA hiking its target price to $151! 43 years of dividend growth + oil price upside—does this make XOM a buy? Or are you worried the geopolitical premium will fade fast? Will you jump on the energy rally, or wait for a pullback? Share your thoughts on XOM and the oil market below! As Middle East geopolitical tensions erupted over the weekend, the global crude oil market witnessed long-awaited sharp volatility on Monday. Amid shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over the safety of Iranian oil facilities, international oil prices skyrocketed like a rocket. Amid this turmoil, a familiar name has once again captured all investors’ attention—oil giant

The move in oil is logical given the location involved. The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical energy chokepoint in the world. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through it daily. When markets hear the word blockade, traders immediately price a geopolitical risk premium. However, whether crude reaches $100+ depends on three key factors. --- 1. Duration of the disruption A temporary threat usually adds $5–15 risk premium to oil. If the blockade is symbolic or short-lived, Brent likely stabilises around $80–90. Markets tend to fade geopolitical spikes once shipping resumes. Oil only sustainably breaks $100 if the disruption lasts weeks or months. --- 2. Actual supply loss Iran produces about 3 million barrels/day, but the bigger issue is transit. Through Hormuz flow roughly: Saudi ex

Oil Price to $100? Polymarket Ceasefire Bets Crash to 35% and USO Options Pop Polymarket prediction markets show only a 35% chance of a Iran-US ceasefire by March 31, though odds improve to 69% by June 30. This uncertainty has sent shockwaves through oil price, with $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$   surging over 12% in this week as the conflict intensifies. Energy majors have posted impressive year-to-date gains, including $Occidental(OXY)$   up 30%, $Chevron(CVX)$   up 23%, $Petroleo Brasileir

Crude can possibly surge above $100 with panic fears of severe supply disruptions.

it's gonna go up. just hold tight your stocks. if you hold good stocks... don't have to worry

best time to buy EV and EV stocks. this is the moment EV will finally break out and catch on.  closing the hormuz is the final nail in the oil industry coffin.

I believe it will go on a little while simply because the us president does not seem to have a solid plan. While it is simple to say that the war seeks to force a regime change, it is worth taking into account the view that the bombardment and air superiority can only achieve so much on the ground. In the medium to long term, the idea of low(er) cost weapons, specifically one way attack drones, should become a priority for every nation's military force. Extrapolation would therefore mean that whoever comes up with a good and economical counter (not costly systems firing off missiles that cost millions of dollars) measure would rake in the money too.

Bank of America strategist Blanch stated bluntly that if Iran attacks nearby facilities, Brent could instantly break above $100, with European gas prices surpassing €60. JPMorgan’s Kaneva added a critical detail: if the conflict drags on for more than three weeks, Gulf oil could have “nowhere to go.” Once storage capacity is exhausted, producers would be forced to halt output — potentially sending oil straight to $120.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ surged 7% today, touching $76 in premarket trading. $Natural Gas - main 2604(NGmain)$ jumped nearly 5% in a single session, while precious metals lagged behind. The real eye of the storm lies in the Strait of Hormuz — the choke point of global energy supply is being squeezed.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ surged 7% today, touching $76 in premarket trading. $Natural Gas - main 2604(NGmain)$ jumped nearly 5% in a single session, while precious metals lagged behind. The real eye of the storm lies in the Strait of Hormuz — the choke point of global energy supply is being squeezed.The core logic behind the oil and gas spike? Physical supply disruption.1. Big banks’ targets: Where is oil’s ceiling?1) Bank of America & JPMorgan see $100–$120Bank of America strategist Blanch stated bluntly that if Iran attacks nearby facilities, Brent could instantly break above $100, with European gas prices surpassing €60.JPMorgan’s Kaneva added a critical detail: if the conflict d

As of today, the joint U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran have entered their third day. International futures markets, as expectations about the direction of the war have shifted, have gone through a clear sequence: sharp volatility, then a period of tight balance with slowing swings, and now a renewed pickup in volatility. A war-driven pullback in global risk appetite, together with a surge in safe-haven demand, is gradually turning into a broader wave of portfolio rebalancing.This round of fighting—where major world powers and a major Middle Eastern state are directly entering the battlefield—seems to have convinced many global analysts that the conflict may be moving beyond a localized event and toward a wider confrontation. Meanwhile, the U.S.–Israel side’s unsparing “decapitation” actions ag

U.S. crude oil futures (WTI) exploded to a 52-week high near $91 per barrel on March 07, 2026, surging over 13% in a single session as the Middle East war paralyzed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for the fifth day straight, choking off 20% of global oil supply. 😤 Brent crude blasted past $92, up 8.82% as markets priced in a prolonged "long-war" scenario with shipping halted and Kuwait slashing production due to storage overflows – Citigroup estimates 7-11 million barrels daily lost, fueling the biggest weekly gain since Covid volatility in 2020. This "Strait of Hormuz premium" has skyrocketed to 86% odds of closure on prediction markets, amplifying fears of supply squeezes that could catapult prices above $100 if disruptions drag on. But Trump's plan for U.S. Navy escorts and

Crude’s surge to ~$81 WTI is largely a geopolitical risk premium, not yet a structural supply shock. The key variable is still the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of global oil flows move through that chokepoint, so even the perception of disruption can add $10–$20 to prices quickly. Bull case for $100+: Any partial disruption to Hormuz tanker traffic. Insurance premiums spike and shipping slows. OPEC spare capacity cannot respond fast enough. Speculative flows pile into energy as a hedge. In that scenario, $95–$105 Brent is very plausible short term. Bear case toward $73: No physical disruption actually occurs. The U.S. releases barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). War risk premium fades like previous Middle East spikes. Macro demand concerns re-emerge. Historically, geopolitic

First, let me update you on my recent trading moves. I haven't been particularly active in equities lately; instead, I've maintained a light short position on the Euro and locked in some profits from a crude oil bull calendar spread (buying the near month and selling the deferred month three months out). Currently, my dprofits are entirely concentrated in my futures account. Today, I closed my crude oil calendar spread position, booking a modest profit over the past few days. Remember our trading rule? "Rest during minor volatility, rest during extreme volatility, and no rest when there is no volatility". When a major risk event triggers massive market swings, our best approach in the futures market is to minimize our trade frequency, increase our win rate, and appropriately reduce our pos

It will creep up for some time , and might hang higher for a while yet

Global markets just got a fresh dose of geopolitical drama. The latest conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has everyone watching one thing closely — oil prices. And whenever oil gets emotional, markets tend to behave like a hyperactive puppy chasing a tennis ball. So instead of panicking, the Options Puppy approach is simple: Find volatility → Sell options → Collect premium → Wag tail. Let’s break it down. ⸻ 🐶 The Big Macro Bone: US Strikes Iran The recent US strikes on Iran are unusual for two main reasons. First, this looks like a potential regime-change style conflict, driven mainly by the US and Israel, without the usual strong support from European allies. Second, there is no clear endgame strategy yet. The official reason is to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but the

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  🌍🛢️📉 Crude Oil Breaks $80: Supply Chokepoints Collide with Equity Fragility 📉🛢️🌍 🌐 Cross-Asset Shock Ripples Through the Macro Landscape Crude oil futures have decisively breached the $80 per barrel threshold, the highest level since Jan25, as escalating Middle East disruptions ripple through global markets. Energy shocks rarely remain isolated. When oil spikes, the effects cascade through inflation expectations, monetary policy outlooks, equity multiples and volatility regimes. West Texas Intermediate (WTI): $80.32 (+7.58%) Brent Crude: $85.31 I am

A move above $100 is possible, but it depends on whether the situation becomes a true supply disruption rather than only a geopolitical risk premium. Bullish case (towards $95–$110): 1. Strait of Hormuz risk. Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the strait. Even partial disruption or tanker insurance spikes could remove several million barrels per day from the market. 2. Low spare capacity outside OPEC+. If Gulf exports slow, the market has limited short-term buffers. 3. War-risk hedging. Funds often buy crude futures aggressively during geopolitical shocks, amplifying the price spike. Bearish case (pullback to $73–$75): 1. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release by the U.S. to stabilise energy prices. 2. Demand elasticity. Above $90, demand destruction historically appears qui

🐶 Options Puppy: Middle East Tension, Oil Rockets & Where I’m Selling Options Global markets just got a fresh dose of geopolitical drama. The latest conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has everyone watching one thing closely — oil prices. And whenever oil gets emotional, markets tend to behave like a hyperactive puppy chasing a tennis ball. So instead of panicking, the Options Puppy approach is simple: Find volatility → Sell options → Collect premium → Wag tail. Let’s break it down. ⸻ 🐶 The Big Macro Bone: US Strikes Iran The recent US strikes on Iran are unusual for two main reasons. First, this looks like a potential regime-change style conflict, driven mainly by the US and Israel, without the usual strong support from European allies. Second, there is no clear endgame strategy

Brent crude is up 15% in two days on Middle East tensions—but CVX, COP, and XOM profit even if oil prices drop! With rock-bottom break-evens and decades of dividend growth, are these oil giants your portfolio’s safe haven? Which one do you trust most to weather volatility—Chevron’s cash flow, Conoco’s falling break-even, or Exxon’s profitability? Share your picks below! Over the weekend, U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered an abrupt escalation of tensions in the Middle East, sending global oil markets soaring. International benchmark Brent crude prices rose more than 5% today, with a cumulative gain of over 15% in the past two trading sessions, briefly approaching the $80 per barrel mark. The oil price surge has quickly spilled over to the stock market: ConocoPhillips’ share price ha

The current market landscape is heavily influenced by the sudden escalation of conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran as of early March 2026. After a period of oversupply in late 2025, the "war premium" has returned aggressively. Can Crude Oil Cross the $100 Mark? Yes, it is a distinct possibility. While Brent crude is currently trading in the $81–$84 range (up nearly 20% since January), analysts from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wood Mackenzie suggest $100 is the next major psychological and technical resistance level. The path to $100 depends on two primary factors: The Strait of Hormuz: This is the ultimate "black swan" trigger. Approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through this narrow waterway. Iran has already issued warnings to shipping, and any confirmed blockad

Oil prices are surging on Middle East tensions, and ExxonMobil (XOM) is in the spotlight with BofA hiking its target price to $151! 43 years of dividend growth + oil price upside—does this make XOM a buy? Or are you worried the geopolitical premium will fade fast? Will you jump on the energy rally, or wait for a pullback? Share your thoughts on XOM and the oil market below! As Middle East geopolitical tensions erupted over the weekend, the global crude oil market witnessed long-awaited sharp volatility on Monday. Amid shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over the safety of Iranian oil facilities, international oil prices skyrocketed like a rocket. Amid this turmoil, a familiar name has once again captured all investors’ attention—oil giant

Oil Price to $100? Polymarket Ceasefire Bets Crash to 35% and USO Options Pop Polymarket prediction markets show only a 35% chance of a Iran-US ceasefire by March 31, though odds improve to 69% by June 30. This uncertainty has sent shockwaves through oil price, with $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$   surging over 12% in this week as the conflict intensifies. Energy majors have posted impressive year-to-date gains, including $Occidental(OXY)$   up 30%, $Chevron(CVX)$   up 23%, $Petroleo Brasileir

As of today, the joint U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran have entered their third day. International futures markets, as expectations about the direction of the war have shifted, have gone through a clear sequence: sharp volatility, then a period of tight balance with slowing swings, and now a renewed pickup in volatility. A war-driven pullback in global risk appetite, together with a surge in safe-haven demand, is gradually turning into a broader wave of portfolio rebalancing.This round of fighting—where major world powers and a major Middle Eastern state are directly entering the battlefield—seems to have convinced many global analysts that the conflict may be moving beyond a localized event and toward a wider confrontation. Meanwhile, the U.S.–Israel side’s unsparing “decapitation” actions ag

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ surged 7% today, touching $76 in premarket trading. $Natural Gas - main 2604(NGmain)$ jumped nearly 5% in a single session, while precious metals lagged behind. The real eye of the storm lies in the Strait of Hormuz — the choke point of global energy supply is being squeezed.The core logic behind the oil and gas spike? Physical supply disruption.1. Big banks’ targets: Where is oil’s ceiling?1) Bank of America & JPMorgan see $100–$120Bank of America strategist Blanch stated bluntly that if Iran attacks nearby facilities, Brent could instantly break above $100, with European gas prices surpassing €60.JPMorgan’s Kaneva added a critical detail: if the conflict d

The move in oil is logical given the location involved. The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical energy chokepoint in the world. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through it daily. When markets hear the word blockade, traders immediately price a geopolitical risk premium. However, whether crude reaches $100+ depends on three key factors. --- 1. Duration of the disruption A temporary threat usually adds $5–15 risk premium to oil. If the blockade is symbolic or short-lived, Brent likely stabilises around $80–90. Markets tend to fade geopolitical spikes once shipping resumes. Oil only sustainably breaks $100 if the disruption lasts weeks or months. --- 2. Actual supply loss Iran produces about 3 million barrels/day, but the bigger issue is transit. Through Hormuz flow roughly: Saudi ex

I would be very cautious investing in oil and gas at present. Having said this, I recently put money on $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ , $Chevron(CVX)$  and a few Canadian oil and gas stocks. I've also been in $Venture Global, Inc.(VG)$  for a while now, but for different reasons... massive growth potential there. So I've been getting into oil and gas stocks because I saw a nice cyclical play there. Over time I saw it as a smoothing hedge to my more volatile stocks. I had a plan to just DCA into them over the next year. The over the weekend missles started flying. This could cause oil shortages short term. That mite put pressure on oil prices short

Buckle up, folks—the oil world's on fire! 🔥 Iran's bold move to slam shut the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves through global markets, choking off a vital artery that funnels a whopping 20 million barrels daily— that's 20% of the planet's thirst for black gold. With WTI exploding past $72 in a 7% leap and Brent flirting dangerously close to $80, the big question hangs heavy: will this squeeze catapult crude over the $100 mark? 😱 Let's dive deep into the chaos. Iran's pumping out about 3 million barrels a day, but this blockade isn't just rhetoric—reports confirm IRGC warnings blasting over VHF radios, declaring no ships allowed through. Tankers are diverting left and right, insurers are jacking up premiums to sky-high levels, and even Qatar's halting LNG flows. Picture this: half of Ch

The much-watched Iran situation officially entered a new phase last weekend. A U.S.–Iran “hidden move” style decapitation operation quickly carried out targeted killings of Khamenei and several senior Iranian officials. Markets reacted in the usual way: gold and crude oil jumped, while stock index futures opened lower. $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2604(MGCmain)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ After this knee-jerk reaction, the real question is bigger. Is the Middle East—always unstable—just going through another short shock? Or are we about to see a lon

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Costco(COST)$  $MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$ I have seen enough cycles to recognise when markets transition from comfort to recalibration. This week is not about incremental data noise. It is about regime risk. The intensification of US–Israeli military operations against Iran, combined with persistent inflation pressures, is creating a structurally fragile backdrop for global assets. Coordinated airstrikes targeting senior Iranian leadership have triggered retaliatory measures and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows 🛢️ Brent crude has already risen approximately

The move you are describing shifts oil from a headline-driven spike into a genuine supply-risk scenario. A Strait of Hormuz disruption is one of the few events that can rapidly reprice global energy markets because it affects transit, not just production. --- 1. Why the Strait of Hormuz matters disproportionately The market is reacting correctly. Roughly: ~20 million barrels/day transit the strait ≈20% of global oil consumption Includes exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, not only Iran Even a partial disruption creates stress because oil logistics operate with very thin spare transport capacity. The immediate risk is not physical shortage first, but: tanker insurance withdrawals sharply higher freight rates delayed shipments precautionary stockpiling by importers These factors al