To The Moon

So, the question posed here was what is the market betting on going forward. Lower unemployment? Another rate hike? I'm at the point where I'm really not bothered. Last week the market was back on the AI bubble thing again, this week costs of micron chips are going up 500%, and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  is to double its production... so it's not a bubble, but probably the waffle of Wall Street will contradict itself again several more times this month. I'm over it!  I'm from a tiny country at the bottom of the world called New Zealand, so I have to hold a world view, compared to an "American" world view. Case and point, the World Series that Americans hold in their country that only includes America. Not trying to be obtrusive here, I was mar

🌟When $Micron Technology(MU)$ jumps 5.5% on Thursday & another 3.9% on Friday, is it time to get on the bus before its September 30 earnings showdown? The Bull Case for Micron:  AI data centre demand triggers a blowout beat & raise cycle that justifies the premium.  Best suited for high conviction investors with long term horizon. The Cautious Investor: Taking early profits locks in a guaranteed win ahead of a volatile event.  Good for risked managed tactical investor protective of their current capital. The narrative is intoxicating.  AI models don't just need fast processors.  They require lots of high speed memory & storage to think.  Every server rack being built globally needs memory hardware. But his

🌟🌟🌟Chasing $Intel(INTC)$ recent breakout this week is rather premature & a high risk gamble.  The story driving the market is just a rumour at this stage.  On paper, it is a marriage of convenience where $SK hynix(SKHY)$ leases Intel's empty factory space or signs a joint venture to build AI memory on US soil.  However Hynix said nothing has been finalised.  Even worse the South Korean trade ministry has thrown a wet blanket over the excitement, warning that because modern memory architectures are treated as national core technology, any final cross border deal will face a rigid, gruelling government security review. If the South Korean government stalls the deal, or lease negot

🌟🌟🌟In a standard mature industry, pricing power is king.  But AI is not a mature industry.  It is a brutal, historic land grab for compute. Startups, tech giants don't have the luxury of browsing for the most elegantly priced GPU cluster.  They need massive raw scale data today to train their next generation models before they become obsolete. $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ aggressive multi billion dollar infrastructure expansion is backed by massive credit facilities & direct preferential access to Nvidia's rarest silicon.  This means Coreweave is building the actual highway system for the future of AI. While Nebius carefully optimises its mar

Nice Sharing 😁 @Barcode @JC888 @DiAngel @Aqa @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 //@Shyon:For me, the 25bp BOJ hike is not the biggest issue. What matters is how far the BOJ goes and whether the yen strengthens quickly. Japan has been a major source of low-cost funding, so further hikes could make the yen carry trade less attractive. I would watch closely if USD/JPY moves below 150. I do not think this automatically

Friday was a good day to own miners. Bitcoin pushed back above $80,000 in the afternoon, which is not what most people expected this week. The CLARITY Act — the market-structure bill a lot of the industry was counting on — failed in the Senate. There was a Fed decision on top of it. Between them that should have been enough to keep a lid on things. Instead crypto shrugged and went up. MARA closed Thursday at $11.64. On Friday it opened at $12.12, ran as high as $13.32, and finished at $13.24. Up 13.7% in one session. If you hold it, you already know. Nice change. Here's the part that isn't purely good news. What a 14% day does to a covered call writer I own 40,546 MARA shares and I sell calls against them. That's the deal — I collect premium up front in exchange for agreeing to hand the sh

(Winners) Will be a Massive windfall for companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron and the down streams. ( The losers) But it will be bad for the everyday consumers. Prices from transportations to foods will increase.. this will add burden to them.

Everyone is celebrating the memory-stock rally. But I think there’s a more interesting question: If memory prices really are rising 5–7×, who ultimately pays for it? 👀 Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said memory prices have surged roughly 5–7×, helping trigger another sharp move in memory names. On Thursday, $MU jumped 5.5%, $SNDK 6.2% and SK Hynix about 4.6%.  🔥 THE BULL CASE For memory manufacturers, this is exactly what investors want to see: • Supply remains tight • AI infrastructure is consuming enormous amounts of memory • Higher ASPs can translate into dramatically higher revenue and margins • Micron’s latest quarter already showed how powerful the pricing cycle can become Micron reported $41.46B of fiscal Q3 revenue, up sharply from $23.86B the previous quarter, and guided to around $50B rev

The AI slowdown debate just got a lot more interesting. Jensen Huang said Nvidia expects to sell twice as many chips next year as this year, pointing to continued AI adoption across industries.  The market reacted immediately: 📈 $AMD +6.36% 📈 $MRVL +4.81% 📈 $NVDA +2.54% 📈 $AVGO +2.29% The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained about 3.1%, extending its rebound to a third straight session.  But here’s the part I’m watching: 2× chip volume doesn’t automatically mean 2× revenue. Nvidia’s own fiscal 2028 outlook calls for roughly 70% revenue growth, and the company says that outlook is currently supply-constrained.  So the bigger question isn’t simply whether AI demand is still strong. It’s whether the entire infrastructure chain can keep scaling fast enough: 🧠 GPUs → $NVDA / $AMD 🔌 Networ

The Fed just raised rates. And the market basically said: “Okay… now what?” 👀 Thursday delivered a powerful rebound: 📈 Nasdaq-100 +1.73% 📈 S&P 500 +1.14% 📈 SPY +1.13% 📈 QQQ +1.73% The S&P 500 recovered Wednesday’s Fed-day decline and closed at 7,637.76, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.69%.  But the interesting part wasn’t the Fed. 🛢️ OIL FELL Brent dropped to around $104.82, easing some of the inflation pressure that had been pushing yields higher.  📉 YIELDS FELL The 10-year Treasury yield dropped back below 5%, ending around 4.93% after briefly crossing 5% following Wednesday’s decision.  👷 JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL Initial claims dropped to 196,000, below expectations of roughly 207,000. That creates an interesting combination: Stronger labour data + lower oil + lower yields = a much easi

Everyone is talking about AI chips. But what happens when the real bottleneck becomes power? That’s why $GNRC caught my attention. Generac just signed a long-term agreement with Amazon to supply backup generators for its data centres, with ~$2.4B of initial deliveries expected in 2027–2028. The broader agreement can reach $8B in cumulative purchases.  The bigger story isn’t just Amazon. Generac’s Q2 data-centre backlog had already reached ~$1.6B, while its Commercial & Industrial sales grew about 29% YoY.  AI needs GPUs → GPUs need data centres → data centres need electricity → and increasingly, they need reliable backup power. That makes $GNRC an interesting second-order AI infrastructure play. But after the sharp rally, the question is no longer whether the story is getting attenti

High Rates, Hot Oil, Overpriced Tech: The No-Nonsense Case for VT Every decade, the market hands out a specific form of intellectual trap. Right now, that trap is the delusion that you can out-guess a regime shift where sticky inflation, elevated energy prices, sticky interest rates, and multi-decade highs in tech concentration are hitting all at once. If you’ve lived through more than a couple of market cycles, you know the feeling. The consensus gets lazy, hyper-focused on whatever drove the last ten years of returns, while the macro backdrop quietly morphs into something entirely different. Here is the straightforward, pragmatic case for VT and Chill (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) — not as a compromise or a "safe" default, but as the mathematically superior allocation strategy for the

Everyone knows the AI infrastructure story: More AI → more GPUs → more data centres. But there is another part of the equation that is getting increasingly difficult to ignore: Memory. And I think the most interesting question now isn’t simply which memory stock can go higher? It is: How long can the memory shortage last before high prices create the supply that eventually ends the boom? That is a very different question. Recent trading has put memory stocks back in the spotlight. $SNDK jumped roughly 11% Friday, while other semiconductor names also rallied as investors focused on AI-driven memory demand.  At the same time, Intel’s CEO has warned that memory prices have surged dramatically, highlighting just how tight the market has become.  The bullish case is straightforward. AI server

Bitcoin reclaimed $80K on Friday. $COIN jumped roughly 12%. $HOOD gained about 8%. $MSTR surged more than 13%. But the most interesting development wasn’t the Bitcoin price. It was what happened in Washington. On September 17, the SEC granted a temporary five-year “Innovation Exemption” allowing qualifying Tokenized Securities Venues to facilitate trading of certain tokenized U.S. stocks onchain, subject to strict conditions.  That could be more important than another Bitcoin rally. Why? Because the next phase of crypto may not be about replacing traditional finance. It could be about putting traditional financial assets on blockchain infrastructure. Think about the potential chain: 🏦 Stocks → tokenized 🔄 Trading → onchain 💵 Settlement → potentially faster 🔗 Stablecoins → financial rails

Thursday looked like a relief rally. The Fed hiked rates. Oil cooled. Treasury yields fell. Nasdaq jumped 1.69%. S&P 500 gained 1.14%.  Then Friday brought a reality check. The 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 5%, while oil remained above $100 a barrel. Stocks still finished higher, but gains were much more muted: S&P 500 +0.17% and Nasdaq +0.40%.  That creates an interesting battle: 📈 Stocks want lower yields Lower borrowing costs can support growth-stock valuations. 🛢️ Inflation keeps pushing the other way Oil above $100 keeps price pressures in focus. 🏦 And the Fed isn’t done being hawkish Markets were pricing roughly a 58% probability of another October hike by Friday.  So Thursday’s rally may not have answered the biggest question. It may have simply moved it forwa

One thing I’m trying to change in my portfolio: Stop chasing whatever is already moving. A stock up 20% this week can feel like the one you need to own. But I’m asking a different question: 👉 What could still look attractive if the hype cools down? My checklist is becoming: 📈 Revenue/cash-flow growth 💰 Balance sheet strength 🚀 A clear catalyst 🏷️ Valuation I can actually justify ⏳ A reason to hold for 2–3 years, not 2–3 days I’m happy to miss the first part of a rally if it means I understand what I’m buying and why. The hardest part of investing isn’t finding stocks that can go up. It’s knowing which ones are worth holding when they stop going up. 💬 What’s one stock you’re holding for the next 2–3 years — regardless of short-term volatility?