1.55K
·
09-25
Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 9/25/26
$DECU$ $QQQY$ $XDTE$ By Lawrence G. McMillan This market continues to be one with a huge split between the technical indicators. The market internals (breadth, put-call ratios, New Highs vs. New Lows) remain in terrible shape. However, the $SPX chart itself has regained a positive stance, with last Monday's gains breaking through the downtrend line that had existed. Moreover, the various indicators surrounding $VIX remain positive. $SPX broke above the downtrend line on its chart (the purple line in Figure 1) and attempted to reach the all-time highs at 7820. It didn't quite do so and has now fallen back a bit. So there is resistance at 7780-7820.
16.61K
·
09-26
Yields continue to climb, Bond prices continue to drop, whats happening next?
Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. With yields continue to climb, no ease in political tensions between US and the rest of world, the consistant high prices of oil and diesel, the market seem to be resilent and still holding strong. Let’s see how long this bottleneck can hold before it breaks. We are heading into the “traditional” bear market period of the year. And with two more Fed announcements coming up, who knows which direction this market is going to swing? @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]
TOPMyrnaNorth: The 2y10y spread matters more here than the headline yield move. If that keeps re-steepening on the long end, risk assets probably stop looking so chill
1.89K
·
09-26
$PEP — Defensive Stocks Are Getting Interesting
While investors are chasing tech momentum, I’m watching something much more boring — consumer staples. $Pepsi(PEP)$ has the kind of business that tends to get attention when markets become more uncertain: drinks, snacks and brands people buy regardless of what the Nasdaq is doing. And the macro backdrop is becoming interesting. Oil remains above $100 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, while investors are increasingly watching inflation and the possibility of another Fed rate hike.  That creates a very different setup from high-growth tech. 🥤 Why PEP is on my watchlist: • Global portfolio of established consumer brands • Recurring demand rather than discretionary big-ticket purchases • Potential defensive appeal
TOPMargin protection matters more here. If pricing starts slowing while freight and packaging stay sticky, PEP stops feeling that defensive
1.62K
·
09-26
🟠 COPPER IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A SUPPLY STORY
Gold gets the headlines, but copper may be the more interesting industrial metal to watch. Why? Copper is essential for power grids, construction, electric vehicles, renewable energy and broader electrification. The problem is supply. New copper mines can take years to develop, while existing mines face declining grades, permitting challenges and rising development costs. That creates an interesting imbalance: 📈 Electricity demand → rising 🏗️ Grid investment → rising 🚗 Electrification → growing ⛏️ New mine supply → difficult to bring online quickly That’s why some investors see copper as a potential structural supply-demand story, rather than simply another commodity trade. But there is a catch. Copper is also highly sensitive to the global economy. If China or the US slows sharply, indust
TOPMine grades rolling over matters more than people think. For SCCO and FCX, how much of the long-term squeeze case is actually backed by quantified output risk?
5.36K
·
09-26
Will Meta Muse Be A Threat to Amazon, Google, Expedia & Instacart?
🌟🌟🌟A quiet panic is taking over the boardrooms of Silicon Valley - $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
TOPNice Sharing 😁 @Barcode @JC888 @Aqa @Shyon @DiAngel @Shernice軒嬣 2000
2.85K
·
09-26
SK Hynix (SKHY) and Micron (MU) Comparison : Both Stocks Soar As AI Demand Increases
$SK hynix(SKHY)$
TOP$Micron Technology(MU)$ Investors are eagerly awaiting Micron Technology’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on September 30 to see whether the memory chip company continues to enjoy solid demand and pricing tailwinds. Ahead of Q4 FY26 earnings, BMO Capital analyst reiterated a Buy rating on MU stock with a price target of $1,300. The analyst is bullish on Micron, as he believes that “memory remains in a supercycle as demand trends continue to exceed supply through CY27.” Kumar ranks No. 9 among more than 12,500 analysts tracked on TipRanks. He has a 74% success rate, with an average return per rating of 46.9% over a one-year period. Kumar raised his Q4 FY26 revenue estimate by $2 billion. He also increased his full-year FY27 revenue and EPS estimates to $268 billion and $168.62, respectively, from $249 billion and $151.91. Kumar doesn’t expect any new significant memory supply to arrive until the second half of 2027. Meanwhile, Kumar expects HBM and DDR5 to drive Q4 FY26 results, with BMO’s checks indicating server DDR5 pricing offering the greater upside surprise. The analyst noted that both HBM3e and HBM4 likely saw a sequential rise in pricing, while client and consumer memory saw weaker demand. For Q1 FY27, Kumar expects . He sees HBM3e and HBM4 prices rising modestly under annual pricing contracts. While server DDR5 pricing continues to offer the greater potential for upside surprises, Kumar expects demand to shift towards HBM4. Kumar highlighted that, as per his checks, HBM4 carries about a 20% to 25% price premium compared to HBM3e. As the product mix shifts toward HBM4, Kumar expects the average selling price (ASP) to move higher. Meanwhile, Wall Street expects Micron to report , up from $3.03 in the prior-year quarter. Revenue is projected to surge about 351% to $51.07 billion. Is Micron Stock a Good Buy? With 20 Buys and one Hold, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Micron Technology stock. The average of $1,526.75 indicates 41.2% upside potential.
927
·
09-26
Memory Demand Is Outpacing Supply. So Why Are These Stocks So Cheap?
🧠 Memory demand is growing faster than supply, yet the entire memory complex has been hit hard. That creates an interesting setup: fundamentals remain tight, while valuations have compressed across the group. Citi expects DRAM and NAND supply to remain below demand through 2028. So which one offers the most compelling risk/reward? Here’s the valuation snapshot I’m watching: $Micron Technology(MU)$ — 6x forward P/E$SK hynix(SKHY)$ — 4x forward P/E$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ — 7x forward P/E Kioxia — 4x forward P/E Samsung — 4x forward P/E The market is clearly pricing these businesses as cyclical memory companies. But the current cycle has a different driver: AI infrastru
1.45K
·
09-26
$SPX Is Near a Record. This Hasn’t Happened Since 2000
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is sitting near a record high. But underneath the surface, the market looks very different. Only about 48% of S&P 500 stocks are currently above their 200-day moving averages, meaning roughly 52% are below. The index was just 0.44% from its record close on Tuesday. The last time the S&P 500 was this close to a record while a similar share of its components traded below the 200DMA was March 2000, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That doesn’t tell us what happens next. It does tell us that index strength is being carried by a relatively narrow group of stocks. The headline index can look healthy while the average stock underneath it tells a very different story. That divergence is worth watching. Markets are always mov
1.95K
·
09-26
Micron Technology (MU) : BMO Capital Kumar Upside To $1,300 Predicted
$Micron Technology(MU)$
TOP$Micron Technology(MU)$ Is Micron Stock a Good Buy? With 20 Buys and one Hold, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Micron Technology stock. The average of $1,526.75 indicates 41.2% upside potential.
1.72K
·
09-26
Economic Check: Unemployment Rate (Monthly)
If you’ve been watching the markets lately, you must heard of Rate Hike. So what is the next? On October 2, we are getting the latest U.S. Unemployment Rate. Source from Trading Economics What is the Fed Actually Looking At? When the Federal Reserve sits down to decide on interest rates, they look at two main things : Inflation: Are prices of everyday goods and services getting too expensive too fast? Employment: Are people keeping their jobs, and is the labor market healthy? Lately, the Fed’s challenge has been elevated inflation alongside a relatively resilient job market. Even with higher interest rates weighing on parts of the economy, employment has continued to grow while wage growth has stayed positive. Resilient household incomes and consumer spending can support demand, making it
TOPThe transmission matters more than the headline print. If unemployment comes in hot, tech probably feels it through capex cuts and duration first, not just yields.
1.09K
·
09-26
A Surprisingly Solid Week, Despite the Noise
After several days of sharp swings, Wall Street managed to close the week on a surprisingly constructive note. Friday’s session: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.51% Dow: +0.93% (+479 pts) $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.48% All three major indexes posted weekly gains: Dow: +0.3%, snapping a three‑week losing streak S&P 500: +1.2%, breaking a two‑week slide Nasdaq: +2.1%, leading the charge Not bad for a market that spent most of the week wrestling with surging yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Yields Hit New Highs - Yet Equities Don’t Break The 10‑year Treasury climbed to 5.18%, its highest level since 2007. Oil eased into the weekend, but bond volatility remained elevated. US10Y Friday’s equity strength came after
2.60K
·
09-26
Can Muse become the new point of aggregation?
The disruption story brewing in the market for the last three years really took hold when $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ ( ▼ 3.34% ) Muse was released on September 8, 2026, and rapidly went to #1 in the app store. People were posting pictures of Muse buying clothes, re-booking flights, making calls to restaurants, and many other phenomenal use cases. I called it AI’s Mass Market Moment, and I think that’s true. I also think others will follow. Moats don’t last for long in AI. But we can see how we may interact with technology in the future, and it may not be through the apps we use today. This is creating both opportunities and risks for the companies we’re investing in. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ( ▲ 0.12% ) has t
3.92K
·
09-26
$TQQQ Up +1.30%: Triple-Leveraged Nasdaq ETF Climbs to $79.60, Momentum Builds Toward $88 High
📊 Market Recap As of September 26, 2026, 'TQQQ' closed at $79.60, up +1.30% (+$1.02) from the prior session. The leveraged ETF traded in a range of $78.06 to $80.06, with turnover reaching $4.56 billion and volume of 57.41 million shares. The close leaves the fund approximately 9.6% below its 52-week high of $88.09, while holding comfortably above its 52-week low of $37.32. Pre-market activity on September 25 pointed to $79.01, suggesting buyers remained engaged ahead of the regular session. 🚀 Key Drivers AI Cloud Momentum: Broad strength across US AI cloud service providers, including names such as NEBIUS, CoreWeave, and Oracle, has reinforced bullish sentiment for Nasdaq-heavy and leveraged technology exposure. Leveraged Beta Flow: As a 3x daily leveraged vehicle, 'TQQQ' amplified the un
2.78K
·
09-26
$SanDisk (SNDK) +1.38% Momentum Builds: Memory-Chip Leader Eyes $1,819 Breakout, $2,354 Range in ...
📊 Market Recap As of September 26, 2026, 'SNDK' closed at $1,777.80, up +1.38% (+$24.18) on the day. The stock remains approximately 24.5% below its 52-week high of $2,354.39, suggesting ample recovery room if momentum persists. Intraday range was $1,742.59 - $1,815.00, with turnover rate at 4.94% and volume ratio at 0.63, reflecting moderate participation. Pre-market quote on September 25 was $1,792.46, while after-hours softened to $1,774.00, indicating mild profit-taking near resistance. 🚀 Key Drivers Memory-Chip Upswing: SanDisk is benefiting from a broad rally in storage and memory-linked names, with weekly momentum lists flagging the stock among top movers in the semiconductor space. AI-Driven Storage Demand: Continued enterprise and AI infrastructure buildouts are supporting pricing
3.77K
·
09-25
$SPX Tagged the .618 Extension Then Reversed
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ sold straight into the target. 🎯 The 5-3-5 model was calling for the bounce to get sold, and that’s exactly how it played out. 📐 Price tagged the .618 extension almost to the point — then reversed sharply. That’s the key part of the setup. C-waves commonly terminate around the 50%–61.8% extension of the A-wave, with the 90%–100% range also among the levels I watch. The model projects those potential termination zones before price reaches them. So when price hits the projected level and reverses, the setup is playing out according to the structure rather than simply reacting after the fact. 🔥 This is Elliott Wave 2.0. Map the structure. Project the levels. Wait for price to confirm. Then trade the reaction. Markets are always mo
4.14K
·
09-25
Macroeconomic Pressures and Long-End Treasury Dynamics: Debt Issuance, Yield Caps, and the UTEN Portfolio Strategy
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have experienced persistent upward pressure, repeatedly testing multi-decade highs. This structural shift is driven by a fundamental imbalance between massive federal debt issuance and constrained private sector absorption capacity. In this article, we would like to share how we can synthesizes the core drivers (supply/demand imbalances, buyback limitations, supply-side inflation) and investment conclusions. The article would have the following Core Analysis Highlights: Supply vs. Buybacks: Explains why Treasury buybacks are liquidity-neutral operations that cannot counteract net issuance expansions. Yield Resistance: Analyzes natural macro limits including debt-servicing constraints, Treasury auction mix shifts (T-Bill reliance), and economic reflexivity. Vo
TOPCross-asset angle matters more here: in QT, the VIX-long yield linkage has changed structurally, so UTEN works better as a tactical duration hedge than a core long-term hold.
3.39K
·
09-25
Gold Looks Crowded While Bonds Look Cheap
🧐 Asset Class Valuation Indicators Spot the odd one out. 👀 High = expensiveLow = cheap And yes, valuation is closely tied to sentiment. In many ways, these indicators are also a popularity gauge. 😅 The interesting part is the gap between $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ and bonds. 🥇 Gold is sitting on the expensive side of the spectrum, reflecting strong demand and crowded positioning. 📉 Bonds, meanwhile, look much cheaper by comparison. That creates an unusually wide valuation contrast between the two asset classes. 🎯 From a purely contrarian perspective, the most extreme setup right now would be: Short Gold vs Long Bonds That doesn't automatically make it the right trade. It simply represents the most contrarian relative-value position based on t
3.93K
·
09-25
$SPX Is Going Nowhere but the Market Is Getting More Volatile
The stock market continues through a choppy season, where overnight moves and gaps have become the new normal. However, the current price action regime can be navigated those gaps in our favor, as we have done for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$, and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ itself; as gaps typically trigger counter-moves. Since Monday, the gap at 7,651 has been on our radar for the SPX. Tuesday’s indecision added warning signs, and Wednesday’s retrace, confirmed by the
3.68K
·
09-25
$NVDA Has the GPUs, $MRVL Is Building What Connects Them
Jensen just crowned $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ as a potential next trillion-dollar company. 👀 That sounds aggressive. But the underlying thesis is worth understanding. For years, the AI infrastructure story has been dominated by GPUs. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ → compute But an AI data center needs far more than compute. Thousands of GPUs need to communicate with each other at extremely high speeds. That requires sophisticated networking equipment and connectivity chips to move massive amounts of data across the system. And that’s where $MRVL comes in. ⚡ The part of AI infrastructure hiding behind the GPUs Marvell supplies semiconductor solutions used for networking and connectivity inside AI data centers. The bigger
1.65K
·
09-25
$SPY Closed Almost Exactly Where the Gamma Map Said It Could
This is why I pay attention to levels before the close, not after it. Earlier, with $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ at $767.39, the gamma map had three levels on watch: $769 → Call Wall$766 → Put Wall$765 → Pin Magnet The setup was pretty straightforward: Above $766 → expect price to stay relatively contained and chop into the close. Lose $766 → $765 becomes the next level to watch. No need to predict every candle. Just know where the structure changes. And then $SPY closed at: $767.18 🎯 Almost exactly inside the range the gamma structure had suggested could contain price. That’s the part I find useful about @GEXEdgeIO. It isn't about predicting the next candle. It's about having the important levels before price gets there. You can then use tho