SeptemBEAR is here: Are Your Portfolio Ready for Volatility?

In September, the VIX may fly as we may see September Effect hit again. ------- 1. Is the market in danger with September effect approaching? 2. What's your strategy to cope with risks?

September has historically been one of the weaker months for equities, with the so-called September Effect often linked to seasonal portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting, and cautious positioning ahead of year-end. While not guaranteed, this tendency often makes investors more alert. At the same time, you are correct that the current setup is unusual: volatility traders, hedge funds, and other large speculators have built significant short positions in the VIX. This reflects a strong consensus that calm will persist. The risk here is that if volatility does spike—whether from macroeconomic surprises, Fed-related uncertainty, or political events such as the ongoing Trump-Fed drama—forced covering of those short positions could amplify market swings. Key considerations for September: Fe
I agree with the adage Sell in May go away buy again on Labour Day... This year I believe precious metals will gain more especially with rate cuts coming mid september... my portfolio is overweight gold/silver miners
$AMN Healthcare Services Inc(AMN)$was my biggest bag holder and I am still waiting to sell it off. I bought it at 69 and watched it slide, ever buoyed initially by Covid fears and later fear of taking a loss and hopes of a partial rebound where I can give it off but that never happened. Will however soon sell it off for reinvesting the money.
avatarSanL
09-01
I am also holding same top glove, 90% down too… I really wonder should I still keep it? @koolgal
Wow, holding SE since the COVID period—that’s some serious patience! That kind of bagholding takes guts, especially through the lows when it felt like the market might never turn. And now that you’re finally in profit, how’s it feeling? Like a weight off your shoulders? [Grin] [Happy] [Sly]
Usually September is a quite month with many stock price down. Just keep extra cash and buy the discounted stock 😆
avatarkoolgal
08-31
🌟🌟🌟On August 28, the S&P500 Index closed at a record breaking 6,501, its 28th all time high of 2025.  That was not a fluke. It was a crescendo.  A surge in Tech Titans like Google, Amazon pushed the index higher, defying gravity even as other sectors wobbled.  It marked a 10.5% climb year todate and a stunning 30% rebound from its April low.  This wasn't just a rally.  It was a roar. My conviction in $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPLG)$ is paying off as I am up 47%.  SPLG is the mini version of SPY with a super low expense ratio of 0.02%.  Both ETFs are managed by the same fund manager State Street Global. Why did Au
avatarIsleigh
08-31

📅 September Effect: Trap or Buy Point?

August ended without the deep correction many expected, but enthusiasm cooled after a choppy earnings season. Now all eyes turn to September — historically a volatile month for equities. 🔎 Macro Drivers to Watch Fed Rate Path: Powell's dovish tilt keeps September rate-cut odds high. If delivered, tech and growth should catch a bid. Seasonality: September is historically one of the weakest months, with volatility spikes around Fed meetings and CPI releases. Elections & Politics: Fed independence headlines and fiscal policy debates could create intraday swings. 📊 Market Outlook (Near-Term) S&P 500 (SPX ~6,460): Holding 6,350 support keeps trend intact. A Fed cut could push SPX toward 6,600; breakdown risks to 6,200. NASDAQ (IXIC ~21,455): Tech remains rate-sensitive. Reclaiming 21,80
📅 September Effect: Trap or Buy Point?
PCT: LionGlobal Singapore Dividend Lobang v1.0 : PCT = Pandas Coffee Talk. For those like me keeps losing money in stocks. There is this LionGlobal Singapore Dividends Unit Trust in Tiger. SGD monthly dividends. 1Y 47%. 5% p.a. Monthly Dividends.
August stocks fly too high, if September have a healthy pullback, it is a good time for DCA, however we can't time the market.... @AI_Dig
My Aug portfolio dropped a little but it is as expected. I will continue to buy few tranches on shares which is also in the list mentioned if they continue to fall. [Cool]
avatarJmercy
08-31
cool here
avatar1PC
08-31
August wrapped with a whisper—not a bang. Hedge funds and large speculators are shorting the VIX at levels not seen since 2022, with net short positions hitting 92,786 contracts. That’s a massive bet on calm continuing. But history warns: when everyone’s on one side of the boat, it only takes a ripple to flip it. 🌊⚠️ 🧠 What Is the September Effect? September has a reputation for being the market’s moodiest month. 📉 Historically the worst-performing month for the S&P 500 🏦 Mutual funds rebalance, locking in gains or harvesting tax losses 🏖️ Traders return from summer break, bringing volume—and volatility 🧨 Macro catalysts (Fed, jobs, geopolitics) tend to cluster here This year, the setup feels especially fragile. VIX remains below 15, 24% below its yearly average Fed rate cut e
September has historically been one of the more volatile months for equities — the so-called “September Effect.” While the phenomenon is not guaranteed each year, the setup you highlighted (heavy short positioning in volatility, ongoing policy uncertainty, and the Fed–Trump drama) does increase the probability of turbulence. --- Current Market Dynamics 1. VIX positioning Hedge funds and systematic traders are heavily shorting volatility (VIX futures/options), essentially betting on calm continuing. This “crowded trade” can become dangerous: if volatility spikes suddenly, forced covering can accelerate the move higher. 2. Macro risk in September September often coincides with higher volumes (as summer ends) and key monetary/fiscal policy events. The Fed–Trump confrontation (over interest ra
avatarBarcode
08-31

📉⚖️🔥 September Setup: SPY’s Perfect Pattern Meets Trump’s Tariff Showdown 🔥⚖️📉

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 🚨 August just ended in flawless rhythm; September is not a month to survive, it’s a month to attack with discipline because history says it’s the most dangerous stretch in 70 years. 🚨 🔥📉📊 $SPY Pattern Perfection 📊📉🔥 For the week ending 29Aug25, $SPY moved exactly as scripted: ❤️ Monday red 💚 Tuesday green ❤️ Wednesday red 💚 Thursday green ❤️ Friday red That’s pure pattern perfection. Goodbye August. September now looms; and history says it’s been the worst month in 70 years. 🚀 The two top stocks I’m laser-focused on next week are $AMZN and
📉⚖️🔥 September Setup: SPY’s Perfect Pattern Meets Trump’s Tariff Showdown 🔥⚖️📉
Replying to @koolgal:Good experience indeed. Sure can learn something from this loss and turn out stronger eventually.//@koolgal:Top Glove is My Bagholder Badge of Honour.  I am down 90%. That is not a typo.  That is a latex laced lesson in humility. A bagholder is someone who clings to a stock long after its glory days are gone, watching it tumble while whispering sweet nothings like maybe it will bounce. It is the financial equivalent of holding the bouquet after the wedding has been called off. I was that person.  I believed in Top Glove.  I held the bag.  I even considered framing the chart as modern art. But here is the twist.  I don't see it as
avatarGGX
08-31
5 years and counting [Facepalm]
whats yr tic tok id pls.. want to follow u .. thx
$ComfortDelGro(C52.SI)$ is the SG stock I have held the longest since 2017.
avatarMHh
08-30
August has been a very kind month as both HK/ China and US stocks rose. The pullback didn’t happen. This September will be different from previous ones as everyone is hoping for the rate cut that has been slow to come since the last one. If the Fed gives marker what it expects, there is a good chance that market would rise on that optimism. The September effect is probably just market trend to me as investors and traders review their portfolio and adjust accordingly. So, it is scientific in that sense and nothing superstitious. Market fluctuations often usually in accordance to market events like earnings season, inflation reports, and in recent times, war and the ceasefire. As traders and investors, we manage the risk and do our trades accordingly. I think it is more important to re