Take Profit as S&P Hits 5800 or Hold Till 6000?

As the stock market hits record highs more than 40 times this year, there are concerns that history might repeat itself and another financial crisis could occur. ---------------- Will S&P 500 hit 6000 by year-end as institutions predict? Would you take profit and stay cautious ahead or hold till the year-end?

avatarJacksNiffler
2024-09-19

YTD 203%+ But Still In "Buy List"!

There's a gaming software stock that's up 203% year-to-date, but the market thinks its growth story isn't over yet.Shares of the company fell to over $10 at the beginning of 2023 due to the high interest rate environment that has closed in on the suppressed advertising and gaming market, and have now risen to over $120.As the Federal Reserve has officially begun a rate-cutting cycle, this type of strong-performing growth stock could draw further coveted funding.It’s $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$.Advertising, gaming, and entertainment peers of tech giants like $Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$
YTD 203%+ But Still In "Buy List"!

What should investors care about after first 50bps rate cut?

The 50 basis point rate cut to start the cycle surprised at least half of investors.There are 25 basis points is the compensation for July.Many investors in the market point of view is that July can open the rate cut, and Powell in order to "stabilize" hard to see two more months of data off to September.The 50 basis points, in fact, is 25 basis points in September, plus 25 basis points in July compensation!Even 50 basis points, still behind the curve.According to the Fed's own point of view, this time is "calibrated policy stance" - do not want to fall behind the curve, but also do not want to signal the risk of recession, so the action to see at first glance seems to be very large, in fact, just behind the market too much to add.For the first time did not give the market "clear signal".P
What should investors care about after first 50bps rate cut?

How DOJ sues Visa's monopoly change your portfolio?

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) plans to file an antitrust lawsuit against VISA.The legal action, which will sue the payment technology company in federal court, is expected to start as soon as Tuesday. Antitrust regulators are poised to accuse $Visa(V)$ of engaging in behavior that prevents competitors from entering the debit card market.This includes entering into exclusivity contracts that impede the development of rival payment networks and preventing tech companies from entering the market, according to the report.What does the DOJ charge?The DOJ's statement says: We allege that VISA has illegally amassed power to charge fees far in excess of what it might charge in a competitive market.Raising transaction fees through monopolization.VISA p
How DOJ sues Visa's monopoly change your portfolio?
avatarTiger V
2024-09-25

Nvidia Surge Pushes S&P 500 to Record Highs

Overview of Markets: Strong Tech & AI Pushes U.S. Stocks Higher The stock market showed strength with the S&P 500 reaching new highs, buoyed by Nvidia’s sharp rise. The index climbed by 14.36 points, or 0.25%, to close at 5732.93. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 83.57 points, up 0.2%, to a new record of 42,208.22. The Nasdaq also surged, gaining 100.25 points, or 0.56%, to 18,074.52. Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) ADRs $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  gained 4.13% as the tech sector showed resilience. Nvidia’s $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  CEO, Jensen Huang, ceased selling the company's stock, pushing shares of the AI giant up
Nvidia Surge Pushes S&P 500 to Record Highs

All-Time-Highs Driven by Strong Demand! Which Companies to Follow?

$Netflix(NFLX)$ achieved an impressive 48% increase this year and recently hit a new high of $722. The performance and stock price surged following the launch of a new advertising plan.It is one of the few big tech companies that reached new highs in September. In the future, its advertising business is expected to benefit from AI applications. Strong demand from cruisers has lifted shares of $Royal Caribbean Cruises(RCL)$, reaching a new high of $179.75, marking a 38% year-to-date increase.On August 6, JPMorgan highlighted RCL as "best in class" among cruise operators, causing the stock to jump 7.5%. It has continued to rise over the past two months.JPMorgan noted that Royal Caribbean has indicated that p
All-Time-Highs Driven by Strong Demand! Which Companies to Follow?
avatarDoTrading
2024-09-19

Fed’s Half-Point Rate Cut Fuels Optimism for Soft Landing as Global Markets React

Global markets are responding to the Federal Reserve's decision to kick off its rate-cutting cycle with a half-percentage-point reduction, signaling the start of what many hope will be a controlled path toward stabilizing the US economy. Investors are closely watching the central bank’s approach, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioning that future rate cuts may proceed at a slower pace than some anticipated. As the dust settles, the Treasury market, global equities, and major currencies have reacted in various ways to the Fed's move, while focus shifts to the upcoming decisions from the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ). Fed’s Decision and Market Reaction Fed Kicks Off Rate Cuts with a Bang The Fed delivered a bold half-point cut to the federal-funds rate, bringing the new targ
Fed’s Half-Point Rate Cut Fuels Optimism for Soft Landing as Global Markets React

Dow & SPX Hit ATH, Tech Stocks Surge Post-Rate Cut

The Fed's significant rate cut boosted confidence that the central bank will keep the U.S. economy expanding. On Thursday, U.S. stocks rose sharply, with the $DJIA(.DJI)$ jumping over 500 points and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closing above 5,700 for the first time, both setting historical records. This marked the Fed's first rate cut in four years, leading the market to believe it can help the economy avoid a recession.Prevent Recession, Stocks ExplodingAdam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, remarked, “As the market digests this major Fed cut, stocks are exploding. I foresee a strong market leading up to the presidential election.”This larger-than-expected cut surprised many investors. Jeremy Siegel, a
Dow & SPX Hit ATH, Tech Stocks Surge Post-Rate Cut

3 Aspects Tell You Will US Equities Continue Their Rally After the Record Highs?

Last week, U.S. stocks hit historic highs, reflecting widespread optimism among investors. Now, the market’s attention has shifted to earnings reports and the upcoming Fed meeting in November, where there’s an 84% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut.Looking back at last week, all major indices— $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $.SPX(.SPX)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$—rose more than 1%, with the Dow and S&P 500 both hitting record highs on OCT11.Can the Rally Last Until Year-End?With the prospect of rate cuts, strong macroeconomic data, and solid corporate earnings expectations, U.S. stocks are on solid footing to potentially continue their upward trend. Let’s dive into three key indicators
3 Aspects Tell You Will US Equities Continue Their Rally After the Record Highs?
avatarTiger_comments
2024-10-10

CPI, Bank Earnings, Rate Cut: Will Market Collapse Like 2008 or Push Higher?

As the stock market $DJIA(.DJI)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hits record highs more than 40 times this year, there are concerns that history might repeat itself and another financial crisis could occur.Will the market repeat things in 2007?On September 18, 2024, the Fed made a 50bps rate cut, exceeding expectations despite solid economic data. This mirrors the 2007 rate cut, after which markets rallied for three weeks, reaching an all-time high on October 9, 2007.Similarly, after the 2024 cut, markets rallied for three weeks, and the S&P closed at an all-time high on October 9, 2024.US election brings both uncertainty and potential opportunities.However, some investors believe that because of the U.S. electio
CPI, Bank Earnings, Rate Cut: Will Market Collapse Like 2008 or Push Higher?
avatarBullaroo
2024-09-18

Analyzing the Market Reaction to the Fed's 50 Basis Points Rate Cut

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve took a decisive step by reducing the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, marking a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy. This move, aimed at supporting a softening labour market and controlling still-elevated inflation levels, led to a variety of immediate reactions in financial markets, reflecting the complex interplay of investor expectations, economic indicators, and monetary policy. Market Movements The stock market initially reacted positively, with major indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting the day’s highs shortly after the announcement. This rally was underpinned by the relief among investors who had been anticipating aggressive action from the Fed to counteract recent economic slowdowns. However
Analyzing the Market Reaction to the Fed's 50 Basis Points Rate Cut
avatarTRIGGER TRADES
2024-10-18

$SPX hit a short-term top today at 5878!

$.SPX(.SPX)$ hit a short-term top today at 5878! Now, we’re at a pivotal moment: either we’ve just completed a 3rd & pulling back for a 4th, or we're about to experience a sharp B-Wave decline.As long as we stay above 5775, the 4th wave scenario is still in play. But if we lose that level, watch out—5700-5650 is the next target on the downside.Personally, I’m leaning towards the B-Wave decline taking shape. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$
$SPX hit a short-term top today at 5878!

FedEx missed Q1, lowered 25FY, reflection of recession?

$FedEx(FDX)$ A lackluster performance in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, which missed market expectations, and the company's downward revision of its full-year earnings guidance led to a sharp decline in shares in after-hours trading, ending the previous nine-day uptrend.Earnings OverviewFedEx reported total revenues of $21.6 billion in the first quarter, missing market expectations of $21.93 billion and falling slightly year-over-year.Earnings per share came in at $3.60, well below analysts' expectations of $4.82.Several of its major business units, including Express Services, Ground Transportation and Freight Services, suffered some margin compression.Courier ServicesRevenue grew by about 4% but margins were compressed due to higher operating c
FedEx missed Q1, lowered 25FY, reflection of recession?

All-Time-Highs: Software to Benefit More From AI?

Yesterday, the Dow and S&P 500 hit all-time highs again. Let’s take a look at which companies are following this upward trend!1. $Arista Networks(ANET)$ hit an all-time high again and reached $409.2 on Wednesday's trading.The staggering 72% rise this year con contribute to its strong performance in the cloud networking market, benefiting from the rising demand for scalable infrastructure.Despite higher operating costs and margin pressure, ANET’s growth outlook remains positive with strong demand and new product launches, driving optimistic earnings estimates.2. $Oracle(ORCL)$ has surged to an all-time high of $178, a 69% YTD gain.It's driven by its strategic moves into AI and cloud infrastructure mark
All-Time-Highs: Software to Benefit More From AI?

What to trade in the Rate Cut Cycle?

Last week, the Federal Reserve opened a new rate-cutting cycle with an "unconventional" 50 basis points, marking the official end of tightening since early 2022.The background and implications of this decision are worth exploring in depth. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Extent and path of the rate cutThe Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut is intended to be a quick response to potential economic growth pressures. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Although the market is generally positive about the rate cut, but there are also concerns about recession.Powell emphasized in this context, there is no obvious signs of recession, and the future path of interest rate cuts will be more gentle.According to the Fed's "dot plo
What to trade in the Rate Cut Cycle?
avatarTiger V
2024-09-19

Fed Cuts Rates as Economic Concerns Loom

Overview of Global Markets The 50 basis points (bps) cut by the US Federal Reserve has sent ripples through global financial markets. As the first reduction since the pandemic, this move marks a pivotal shift in monetary policy aimed at staving off potential economic weakness. Investors are recalibrating expectations for economic growth, labor market performance, and interest rates as they digest the implications. While US markets responded with cautious optimism, other global markets are closely monitoring the potential spillover effects. US Market: Fed's Aggressive Action The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.75%-5.00% signals a more proactive approach to combating economic pressures. While the move aims to ease financial conditions and pro
Fed Cuts Rates as Economic Concerns Loom
avatarkibkibkib
2024-09-24
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  Consumer Confidence Index fell in September to 98.7, largest decline since August 2021. This triggers the abrupt swing from gains in the day to losses, which quickly switch to bull market again. Bear's perspective: labor market is weakening Bull's perspective: The sentiment is not as bad and not indicative of recession. Post rate cut will see an improvement in Oct. Plus the news of end of Jensen Huang's stock sales. What is Consumer Confidence Index and is it important?  Conducted by Nielsen, it is basically a monthly market research that comprises of 5 questions about present situation and expectations 6 months from now. What's the current sentiments? Current assessment of business conditions turned negative,
avatarTiger_James Ooi
2024-09-23

US Market Insights (23-27 Sep): Soft Landing Hopes

The S&P 500 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ and Nasdaq-100 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ returned 1.39% and 1.44% last week, respectively. Major market movers included Nvidia (-2.6%), UnitedHealth (-2.91%), Pepsi (-3.48%), Philip Morris (-3.84%), FedEx (-11.08%), Apple (+2.56%), Meta (+7.1%), Amazon (+2.74%), Alphabet-A (+3.89%), and Microsoft (+1.09%). Key economic data this week include Manufacturing and Services PMI on Monday, Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, GDP and Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and PCE on Friday. Major earnings this week include Micron on
US Market Insights (23-27 Sep): Soft Landing Hopes

6400! UBS Ups Its Forecast for SPX in 2025

UBS now expects the U.S. stock market to hit new highs in 2025. Jonathan Golub, the bank's strategist, raised his target for the $.SPX(.SPX)$ from 6,000 to 6,400 points in a note to clients on Tuesday. This new forecast implies a 9.2% gain from Monday's close.Golub pointed to a favorable economic backdrop as the driving factor. "UBS economists forecast 3.7% growth in U.S. nominal GDP in 2025, roughly in line with long-term averages," he said. He added, "Rate cuts should reduce interest expenses and default risks, boosting earnings per share and valuations."Golub’s call came right after the S&P 500 hit an all-time high, with the index up nearly 23% year-to-date. Investors are banking on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the coming months, fu
6400! UBS Ups Its Forecast for SPX in 2025
avatarDavidMarlin
2024-10-18

Bull Market Milestone: Two Years In, Aiming for Five?

We are now 2 years into the current Bull Market that began in October 2022. The average duration of the last 11 Bull Markets has been ~5 years, with 8/11 (73%) making it to the end of the year 3. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL
Bull Market Milestone: Two Years In, Aiming for Five?
avatarTRIGGER TRADES
2024-10-13

We crushed $SPX Friday for 60 points using the WXY Model

We crushed $.SPX(.SPX)$ Friday for 60 points using the WXY Model.After years of deep study on Elliott Wave, the WXY model stands out as my favorite.It’s an extremely high-probability pattern that appears frequently in the market—and works even when the wave count isn't clear.Here's how to take advantage of it:ImageWXYs (double zigzags) are three ABC patterns, with two legs against the trend (W and Y) and one in favor (X).Structured as (3-3-3) or (ABC-X-ABC), this high-probability pattern signals the continuation of the larger trend.Each leg is either of equal length (90-100%) or follows Fibonacci ratios/extensions (50%, 61.8%, 127.2%), with Wave Y extending at least one tick below Wave W (no truncation)ImageEntry Models:1. Enter following the brea
We crushed $SPX Friday for 60 points using the WXY Model
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