Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Bessent Reasons Rate-CutsTariff Shock Moves Forward — U.S. consumer sectors are generally facing a downturn in sales, rising costs, and squeezed profits. This includes companies like McDonald’s, Yum! Brands (KFC/Pizza Hut), Starbucks, Domino’s, and Hershey’s. Many of these companies cater to lower- to middle-income groups, and consumption downgrades are leading these consumers to cut back on non-essential spending. Economic uncertainty is spreading.April ADP employment numbers released on Wednesday showed an increase of only 62,000 jobs, far below expectations and the lowest in nine months. The decline was primarily in education and health services, possibly due to the aftermath of the DOGE healthcare rule, while the impact of tariffs might not

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Trump to fire Powell? Earnings season coming with tariff desensitization!Although the Trump administration is still in the tariffs from time to time "demon", but the market after last week's volatility has been desensitized, but now trading is more "recession expectations", or the extent of the blow to corporate profits, consumer confidence.In the face of the worsening economic outlook, the European Central Bank on April 17 to complete the seventh round of interest rate cuts, and warned that the escalation of international trade tensions is a serious drag on the eurozone recovery process.The Fed showed a very different rhythm, Powell reiterated the need to judge the policy path based on sufficient data, triggering a harsh rebuke from Trump.Prev

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Recession’s back?Market volatility due to tariffs in effect has been no less than the 2020 period, in addition to the stock market's Monday plunge, identified by Trump as a "short-term sacrifice", the volatility of U.S. debt may be more concerned about the market (elevated risk of recession)?At present, after the first three days of this week's fermentation and "withdrawal", the short-term risk of tariffs has basically been cleared, and how the end of the future, basically in the current market has been Price-in the range, so it will not be too sensitive.But overall, the risk of the medium-term still can not be ignored, even if the final landing is 10% tariffs, the economic growth rate may slow down from Q2, embodied in the corporate earnings r

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Divergence on US stock marketQ1 of the US stock market experienced rain, so "whether it is a medium-term intervention point" has become a hot topic of discussion.Policies favor the real economy over capital markets, while "soft data" continues to weaken.The core differences and market focus on the direction of the market are: foreign capital flows (Goldman Sachs believes that foreign capital, especially European funds, will continue to inflow, UBS warned that the funds may return to the local market), sustainability of the rebound (Morgan based on the technical aspects of the short-term bullish, but medium-term by the impact of the policy, the Mo emphasized that the fundamentals of the rebound of the limitation of the space of the weak), positi

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: March FOMC: optimistic or pessimistic?The core of the March FOMC meeting was to ease market pressures through technical tapering adjustments, while keeping interest rates high to curb inflation.Despite the rising risk of economic stagflation, the Fed is still trying to find a balance between "premature easing" and "excessive tightening".The most over-expected move was a dramatic slowdown in tapering from April 1st.The Fed reduced the monthly redemption limit on Treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion (an 80% reduction).The Fed stressed that the slowdown in tapering is not a shift in monetary policy, mainly in response to changes in the balance of the Treasury's cash account (TGA) and the debt ceiling, while optimizing the structure of the pos

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Powell work with Trump?Although Powell did not pay much attention to Trump, but Trump is repeatedly shouted Powell to cut interest rates.This week's CPI data was unexpectedly lower than expected, the super core services CPI is back to the mid-23 year level, and housing data is generally delayed, and from the industry data in the previous months, the probability of future downward movement is greater.Although the Fed mainly looks at PCE, overall inflation is trending downward, and inflation is currently an important bridge between Powell and Trump (both want to drop).But inflation now has tariffs as a variable, and Powell is not willing to take "depends on the data" this kind of rhetoric to deal with the market (because the tariffs are going to

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Exodus of "US Exceptionalism" trade. In the last two weeks, market risk appetite has taken an extreme turn, with AI-narrative chipmakers tumbling, pulling the Nasdaq back as a whole, and risk aversion rising, while the Trump administration's tariffs have continued to make waves and even become a primary focus of the market.Investors lowered their dollar longs and flocked to Europe and Asia to diversify into the U.S. market.Unlike the 2018 period, U.S. stock valuations are now at elevated levels, the market (institutional investor behavior with consistency such as CTAs) is cautious, and growth expectations are weakening (retail data from Walmart/Target/Bestbuy, etc.), overlaying not Price-in too much Trump policy uncertainty previously the marke

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline:U.S. stocks risk sentiment rose sharply, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ recorded the largest one-day decline since DeepSeek.Tariffs again, USD strengthened , but the Yen began to return to the "safe-haven" propertyConcerns about jobless claims data are starting to escalate, which could be a sign of economic problems or a consequence of the recent widespread layoffs in the DOGE sector, and it is suspected that the market is taking its anger out on the TSLA.Big techs, Nvidia's earnings report is naturally the focus, but the impact has declined, even if the data is still great, but "beautiful enough" will allow investors to take profits to step on.Since the beginning of the year, only META in the big technology reco

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline:U.S. stocks are relatively flat: Trump continues to point fingers on the "Russia-Ukraine" issue while further utilizing tariffs to scare the world, but the market is not surprised; the U.S. dollar continues to fall, U.S. stocks are hovering at new highs, and U.S. bonds are instead ushering in incremental volume due to the Fed's minutes message.Changes in non-U.S. regions gradually become the main line: China's AI main line caused by stock trading congestion; Japan's CPI exceeded expectations caused by the yen appreciation; and Europe will usher in the German election, the market is confusing; gold continues to new highs, Goldman Sachs target price raised to 3100U.S. stocks big technology, in addition to Apple's painless remedy for Greater China

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline:CPI beat: USD rallied for a while, but the overall downtrend of CPI remained unchanged, and Powell downplayed its impact (mainly looking at PCE), and the USD index then retreated (risk assets rallied)Trump's tariff policy: economic and trade advocacy, including the promotion of reciprocal tariffs on some countries (can also be a uniform tariff), the new " consider the use of the value-added tax system (VAT) countries to impose tariffs ", taking into account a variety of factors to set up barriers to trade, emphasising fair competition, commenting on the chip manufacturing and so on.U.S. bond yields after the peak, as inflation down expectations, the market began to get used to Trump "uncertainty, but also slowly downward.The "East Rising" has be

Big-Tech’s PerformanceDeepSeek - Trump tariffs - tech company earnings reports, this is the main theme of trading in the U.S. stock market in the past few weeks.Market volatility has been significantly elevated so far this year, with macro-level concerns about the Fed's "rate cuts" and the strong dollar under the Trump tariffs.U.S. bond yields were unsurprisingly pulled back, even before the Fed's rate meeting, as the impact of DeepSeek unexpectedly triggered a safe-haven pullback early;Trump's tariffs are not new, in the 1.0 period, the market although mind, but more understand its significance more in the negotiation (Bargain), so also with easy to be digested;Rather, it's the earnings reports of big tech companies that have a greater guiding influence on the market.Technology companies,

Big-Tech’s PerformanceTrump's inauguration this week captured the world's attention and entered the 2.0 era, with a considerable number of policy announcements made as soon as he took office, but so far there has been no major surprises in relation to his previous announcements, and the market has come to expect them.In addition to the obvious changes to sectors such as immigration, energy, and digital currencies, there was also a call for the Federal Reserve to "lower interest rates" (although this is unlikely to be successful, as the Fed is an independent private institution).But the point is, through the president's influence shouting, will be a certain degree of distortion of the market on the current expectations of rate cuts, and even some members of the Federal Reserve will also hav

Big-Tech’s PerformanceU.S. stocks were closed this Thursday, and it was an unplanned one at that, so the trading day was a little shorter, and even somewhat impacted the pricing of important options.The most important macro data is the December nonfarm payrolls released on Friday, which may have more impact than the FOMC meeting that follows as the Fed is much more concerned about the job market than inflation.However, the current market consensus is that the probability of a rate cut this month is essentially zero.As a result the dollar is very strong and the US bond curve continues to STEEPEN.Valuations of US stocks are also currently at historically high levels, and increased market uncertainty in 2025 is bound to bring greater volatility. trump's policies could be a significant source