S&P Target 6500? Is It Safe to Invest at High Levels?

With $.SPX(.SPX)$ recently surpassing the 6,000 point, major institutions have expressed optimism about the U.S. stock market's outlook for next year: Morgan Stanley: Set a base-case year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 at 6,350 points, with a bullish scenario target of 7,400 points. ---------- Will you still invest in US stocks despite of high valuations and low risk premium? Can $.SPX(.SPX)$ hit 6500 as analysts suggest?

What will Trump brings to Fed Monetary Policy?

The November 2024 FOMC meeting cut rates by 25 basis points as the market expected, with the target range adjusted to 4.5%-4.75%.The Fed adopted a more flexible monetary policy in response to the current economic situation.Powell emphasized the complexity of the current job market and inflation situationIn the meeting statement, the Federal Reserve's description of the job market from "slowdown" to "general easing", and at the same time the statement on inflation was also fine-tuned to remove the expectation that inflation will continue to declineThese changes reflect the Fed's assessment of the economic situation has been adjusted, but overall did not deviate from its objectives.Future monetary policy will depend on changes in economic data rather than a predetermined path.This open-ended
What will Trump brings to Fed Monetary Policy?

Snowflake Surge 20%+ on Q3 Earnings, while Buffett Sold Off his stake

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ surged 20% after hours after it beat market expectations and lifted guidance in Q3 FY2025.Ever since Warren Buffett's $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ liquidated its position in SNOW in Q2, it has been on a path back up.Financials vs. market expectationsQ3 revenue was $942 million, up 28.3% year-over-year and significantly ahead of market expectations of $898 million.Non-GAAP EPS was $0.20, again beating market expectations of $0.15.Business Performance by SegmentProduct Revenue: Third quarter product revenue reached $900.0 million, an increase of 29% year-over-year, exceeding market estimates of $856.6 million and reflecting Snowflake's success in product expansion and customer attraction.R
Snowflake Surge 20%+ on Q3 Earnings, while Buffett Sold Off his stake
avatarKYHBKO
2024-11-17

News and my thoughts from last week (18Nov24) - audit, energy, Berkshire

News and my thoughts from last week (18Nov24) If we keep views binary and polarized, society runs the risk of being split by opinions and perspectives. We need to return to days when we can live together despite our differences. Differences do not make one enemy. The Pentagon just failed its seventh audit in a row. The nation’s largest government agency is unable to fully account for its budget of over $824 billion. They don’t even know where billions of taxpayers’ money is going. Efficiency is coming - X user America What DOGE brings is transparency and accountability. The taxpayers should know how the money is spent, what it is spent on, the benefits of such spending, and who the money goes to. Every government and business needs a DOGE. Energy is the next area of concern for the develop
News and my thoughts from last week (18Nov24) - audit, energy, Berkshire

How Trip.com became a better choice in Chinese stocks?

$Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$ announced Q3 earnings before the market on Nov 18th and rose more than 3% in subsequent U.S. trading, and $TRIP.COM-S(09961)$ rose more than 5% on Nov 19th Hong Kong stock open.The market is relatively receptive to its results.The overall performance was good, but the actual outperformance was not significant compared to the company's previously given guidance.Since Ctrip was the Chinese stock with relatively strong overall performance over the past year, investors' expectations were also relatively high.Since domestic demand for alcohol travel is not particularly buoyant at the moment, it is also relatively difficult to expect significant growth on the revenue side, relyin
How Trip.com became a better choice in Chinese stocks?

Huge Volatility on Earnings, why is Cisco so cautious?

$Cisco(CSCO)$ reported FY25 Q1 results after the U.S. stock market closed on Nov. 13, and while overall revenue was down year-over-year, it was still better than the market's expectations, driven primarily by AI demand.However, optimism about order growth was less than market expectations, so the company's 2025 guidance was revised up in time, still slightly below market expectations.CSCO was down 3% at one point after hours.Earnings Overview.Revenue of $13.84 billion in Q1 of FY25 ended October 26 was down about 6% year-over-year, slightly above market expectations of $13.77 billion, but an improvement from the 10% decline in the previous quarter.Excluding Splunk orders, product orders grew only 9% year-over-year.Earnings per share (EPS) came in
Huge Volatility on Earnings, why is Cisco so cautious?
avatarMrzorro
2024-11-20
Wall Street Banks Boost 2025 U.S. Stock Forecasts to 6,500: Will U.S. Equities Maintain Global Leadership? The S&P 500 has climbed more than 24% year-to-date, with Wall Street maintaining a bullish stance on U.S. stocks. Analysts predict the benchmark could hit approximately 6,500 points by 2025, suggesting a 10% upside from Tuesday's close at 5,917. Morgan Stanley: Earnings to Drive S&P 500 to 6,500 by 2025 Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson, known for his bearish stance, has revised his target for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$   to 6,500 points by 2025. In a bull scenario, the target could reach as high as 7,400 points. This marks a notable increase from his June forecast of 5,400 poi
avatarMickey082024
2024-11-13

Are Stock now overvalued? Pullback or Surge?

$.SPX(.SPX)$ The recent S&P 500 rally, reaching around 6017, has pushed the market into overbought conditions, leading analysts to anticipate a possible pullback or consolidation before further advances. Currently, around 83% of stocks in the index are trading above their 50-day moving average, a level that historically signals a near-term correction, as observed in previous market peaks in 2023 and earlier. This overextension often leads to a healthy short-term pullback, which would help stabilize the market and set it up for sustained future growth. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has moved into overbought territory, signaling potential for a pullback, particularly as investor sentiment grows cautious with
Are Stock now overvalued? Pullback or Surge?
avatarJacksNiffler
2024-11-19

What is Tesla's Elon Risk?

First of all, I own $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and am a stakeholder.Discussion is for personal opinion only.Tesla has been on an upward trajectory since Trump's election victory, and this rally has nothing to do with fundamentals (since it's not earnings season either), but rather the "realization" of a previously suppressed market.As I said before, Tesla is waiting for an opportunity?--An opportunity to cash in on Trump's rise to power.Now that he's cashed in, Elon Musk has taken it a step further by taking on a key government position - the "DOGE", or Department of Organization of the United States.This important official position of personnel appointment and dismissal is actually very important.But it's also very easy to offend!That's not necessarily
What is Tesla's Elon Risk?
avatarHMH
2024-11-21

S&P 6500 in Sight? How to Ride the Bull Without Getting Trampled!

The S&P 500 has recently broken the 6,000-point barrier, sparking debate among investors about whether the index can continue its ascent to levels projected by major institutions. Morgan Stanley’s base-case target of 6,350 points by the end of 2025, and their bullish scenario target of 7,400, paints a picture of sustained optimism for U.S. equities. However, with valuations soaring and the risk premium narrowing, many are asking: Is it still safe to invest in U.S. stocks at these elevated levels? Let’s dive into the dynamics shaping the market outlook and discuss how I would approach positioning in this environment. The Case for Optimism Easing Monetary Policy: Recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have breathed new life into equity markets. Lower interest rates reduce the discount r
S&P 6500 in Sight? How to Ride the Bull Without Getting Trampled!
avatarHMH
2024-11-14

Positioning for Potential Fed Rate Moves Amid Rising Inflation and Political Considerations

Let’s discuss the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December, and what I believe this could mean for our trading strategies and portfolios. As of October, the U.S. CPI data showed an increase to 2.6% year-over-year from the previous 2.4%, suggesting an uptick in inflationary pressures. Notably, the core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—remained steady at 3.3%. Given these developments, interest rate traders have revised their expectations for the December 18 Fed meeting, raising the likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut to 80%, a marked shift from 58% earlier in the week. So, is another 25 bps cut on the horizon? And what might this mean for traders and investors as we close out the year? The Fed’s
Positioning for Potential Fed Rate Moves Amid Rising Inflation and Political Considerations

Trump’s Approach to Immigration and Energy Could Address U.S. Labour Shortage and Inflation Worries

Trump must focus on a few key issues moving forward. First, although global assets are hitting new highs, domestic purchasing power has not kept pace.  This article is written by Shernice, if you like my article please hit the like button.  The challenge lies in how to expand purchasing power while simultaneously controlling inflation. Trump's approach centers on significantly boosting American wages, which he believes can be achieved by removing illegal immigrants. Currently, there are nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. If they were all removed, a severe labour shortage in service sectors would likely trigger wage increases. However, concerns may arise that wage hikes could fuel inflation. Yet, as previously discussed with investment products, the real inflati
Trump’s Approach to Immigration and Energy Could Address U.S. Labour Shortage and Inflation Worries
avatarTiger V
2024-11-14

Inflation News Impact: Market Rebound Potential & Investment Opportunities

Overall Market Overview In October 2024, the U.S. annual inflation rate saw a slight uptick, rising to 2.6% from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase after seven months of either steady or declining inflation rates. Despite this, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 3.3%, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remain consistent. The market largely anticipated this uptick, and the overall market response may indicate a cautious optimism heading into the final quarter of 2024. The effects on different asset classes, particularly stocks and bonds, should be considered by investors looking to benefit from this development. Inflation Impact on S&P 500 The rise in inflation may influence the broader equity markets, particularly the S&P 500
Inflation News Impact: Market Rebound Potential & Investment Opportunities
avatarMickey082024
2024-11-14

December 24, Feb Rate Cut -25bps Is On The Way!

In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-over-year, up slightly from September’s rate of 2.4%. This uptick reflects rising inflation, marking the first increase since early 2024, largely due to shelter costs, which rose by 4.9% and contributed significantly to the monthly CPI. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 3.3% annually. Monthly inflation rose by 0.2%, in line with recent trends. Food prices saw a 2.1% increase year-over-year, with food away from home climbing 3.8%. Energy prices, however, declined by 4.9% year-over-year, largely due to drops in fuel oil and gasoline prices, which fell by 20.8% and 12.2%, respectively. This deceleration in energy costs helped moderate the overall inflation rate despite the rising shel
December 24, Feb Rate Cut -25bps Is On The Way!
avatarTiger V
2024-11-13

Market Insight: Navigating Inflation and Policy Uncertainty

Overview: Inflation Data Could Set the Tone for Market Dynamics The upcoming release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October on November 13 is anticipated to be a key driver for the financial markets. With economists expecting an overall CPI increase to 2.6%, along with a steady core CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, investors are closely watching to see if this data will influence the Federal Reserve’s policy approach. Rising inflation could prompt the Fed to maintain higher interest rates, which may weigh on growth but could also provide new investment opportunities across asset classes. Market Segments: 1. Equities: Bracing for Volatility in a Changing Policy Landscape The equity markets face an uncertain environment. Historically, higher inflation and interest rate hikes have pre
Market Insight: Navigating Inflation and Policy Uncertainty
avatarTopdownCharts
2024-11-10

Stocks went from de-risking to re-risking this week

Stocks went from de-risking to re-risking this week

How a reverse is happening to Lemonade after losing 77% of top value?

$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ jumped 20% yesterday, and as a company in the same industry as Warren Buffett's $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ , its volatility has been highlighted, and the stock has been on a roller coaster ride since its IPO.However, after the recent release of its results, its bottom features are also visible, with a series of positive growth metrics allowing investors to trade on its ongoing positive expectations as well.Q3 performancePremium growth:Compulsory premiums: Lemonade's compulsory premiums increased by 24% to $889 million, with excellent performance in attracting new customers and increasing premiums for existing customersNumber of customers: Number of customers increased by 17% to 2.
How a reverse is happening to Lemonade after losing 77% of top value?
avatarTiger_Contra
2024-10-24

💰A Tool to Bet on High Dividend & Double Digital Return ETFs for 2025

As the US Fed begins its interest rate cut cycle, the market's expectations for a decline in US interest rates are growing. The US market has set off a wave of high-dividend investment, and more and more investors are choosing to invest in high-dividend products.High-dividend ETFs mainly determine the constituent stocks and holding ratios based on "cash dividends and dividends". Investing in high-dividend ETFs can regularly obtain considerable returns.Dividends can be a powerful source of income. Some investors harness them by investing in dividend stocks, but there's another option for those who want to save time on stock research: high-dividend ETFs.Takeaways$Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF(KBWY)$ and
💰A Tool to Bet on High Dividend & Double Digital Return ETFs for 2025
avatarnerdbull1669
2024-11-05

04 Nov Market Lower Before Election Day and Fed Interest Rates Decision

On Tuesday, we saw major U.S. equities indices moved lower, this is the final market session before the Election Day on 05 November 2024. This week trading will also see Federal Reserve's interest-rate announcement on Thursday and the latest stream of corporate earnings reports on top of the political developments. The S&P 500 closed 0.28% lower as voters prepared to head to the polls. The NASDAQ also fell 0.33%, while the DJIA lost 0.61%. This has cancelled off gains from last Friday when earnings news boosted technology stocks and the October jobs report reinforced expectations that the Fed will continue cutting interest rates. NASDAQ had its seven-week win streak taken out and S&P 500 and DJIA posted weekly losses for the second consecutive week. Large-cap technology stocks were
04 Nov Market Lower Before Election Day and Fed Interest Rates Decision
avatarBarcode
2024-11-13
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  🌐📉🌐 Will CPI Reboost or Rattle the Market? 🌐📉🌐 Kia ora Tiger traders!  The much-anticipated U.S. October CPI report is dropping soon, and all eyes are on how it will shape the markets. Last week, the S&P 500 touched 6017, only to pull back, leaving everyone wondering if this CPI data could light the fire for another rally—or accelerate the downturn. Let’s dive into the weeds, shall we? What’s Expected? The headline CPI is projected to edge up from 2.4% to 2.6%, with core CPI steady at 3.3%. On the surface, this seems like a mixed bag, but let’s break down why it’s worth watching closely: 1. Sticky Shelter Costs: Shelter remains the heavyweight in CPI, making up around 40% of the index. Yet, its impor
avatarGimaGO
2024-11-15
The expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in December suggests that market participants are factoring in ongoing inflationary pressures or concerns over economic stability, which could lead to a period of elevated rates. In terms of the stock market, this could have a variety of effects, and the outlook largely depends on investor sentiment and the broader economic context. Impact on the Stock Market: 1. Interest Rates and Valuations: Higher interest rates generally put downward pressure on stock valuations, particularly for growth stocks, since the cost of capital increases and future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. If the market was expecting a rate cut in December and that doesn't materialize, we could see a pullback, especially in sectors sensitive to intere
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