S&P Target 6500? Is It Safe to Invest at High Levels?

With $.SPX(.SPX)$ recently surpassing the 6,000 point, major institutions have expressed optimism about the U.S. stock market's outlook for next year: Morgan Stanley: Set a base-case year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 at 6,350 points, with a bullish scenario target of 7,400 points. ---------- Will you still invest in US stocks despite of high valuations and low risk premium? Can $.SPX(.SPX)$ hit 6500 as analysts suggest?

avatarMrzorro
2024-11-20
Wall Street Banks Boost 2025 U.S. Stock Forecasts to 6,500: Will U.S. Equities Maintain Global Leadership? The S&P 500 has climbed more than 24% year-to-date, with Wall Street maintaining a bullish stance on U.S. stocks. Analysts predict the benchmark could hit approximately 6,500 points by 2025, suggesting a 10% upside from Tuesday's close at 5,917. Morgan Stanley: Earnings to Drive S&P 500 to 6,500 by 2025 Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson, known for his bearish stance, has revised his target for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$   to 6,500 points by 2025. In a bull scenario, the target could reach as high as 7,400 points. This marks a notable increase from his June forecast of 5,400 poi
avatarJacksNiffler
2024-11-19

What is Tesla's Elon Risk?

First of all, I own $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and am a stakeholder.Discussion is for personal opinion only.Tesla has been on an upward trajectory since Trump's election victory, and this rally has nothing to do with fundamentals (since it's not earnings season either), but rather the "realization" of a previously suppressed market.As I said before, Tesla is waiting for an opportunity?--An opportunity to cash in on Trump's rise to power.Now that he's cashed in, Elon Musk has taken it a step further by taking on a key government position - the "DOGE", or Department of Organization of the United States.This important official position of personnel appointment and dismissal is actually very important.But it's also very easy to offend!That's not necessarily
What is Tesla's Elon Risk?
avatarHMH
2024-11-21

S&P 6500 in Sight? How to Ride the Bull Without Getting Trampled!

The S&P 500 has recently broken the 6,000-point barrier, sparking debate among investors about whether the index can continue its ascent to levels projected by major institutions. Morgan Stanley’s base-case target of 6,350 points by the end of 2025, and their bullish scenario target of 7,400, paints a picture of sustained optimism for U.S. equities. However, with valuations soaring and the risk premium narrowing, many are asking: Is it still safe to invest in U.S. stocks at these elevated levels? Let’s dive into the dynamics shaping the market outlook and discuss how I would approach positioning in this environment. The Case for Optimism Easing Monetary Policy: Recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have breathed new life into equity markets. Lower interest rates reduce the discount r
S&P 6500 in Sight? How to Ride the Bull Without Getting Trampled!
avatarHMH
2024-11-14

Positioning for Potential Fed Rate Moves Amid Rising Inflation and Political Considerations

Let’s discuss the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December, and what I believe this could mean for our trading strategies and portfolios. As of October, the U.S. CPI data showed an increase to 2.6% year-over-year from the previous 2.4%, suggesting an uptick in inflationary pressures. Notably, the core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—remained steady at 3.3%. Given these developments, interest rate traders have revised their expectations for the December 18 Fed meeting, raising the likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut to 80%, a marked shift from 58% earlier in the week. So, is another 25 bps cut on the horizon? And what might this mean for traders and investors as we close out the year? The Fed’s
Positioning for Potential Fed Rate Moves Amid Rising Inflation and Political Considerations
avatarTiger V
2024-11-14

Inflation News Impact: Market Rebound Potential & Investment Opportunities

Overall Market Overview In October 2024, the U.S. annual inflation rate saw a slight uptick, rising to 2.6% from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase after seven months of either steady or declining inflation rates. Despite this, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 3.3%, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remain consistent. The market largely anticipated this uptick, and the overall market response may indicate a cautious optimism heading into the final quarter of 2024. The effects on different asset classes, particularly stocks and bonds, should be considered by investors looking to benefit from this development. Inflation Impact on S&P 500 The rise in inflation may influence the broader equity markets, particularly the S&P 500
Inflation News Impact: Market Rebound Potential & Investment Opportunities
avatarMickey082024
2024-11-14

December 24, Feb Rate Cut -25bps Is On The Way!

In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-over-year, up slightly from September’s rate of 2.4%. This uptick reflects rising inflation, marking the first increase since early 2024, largely due to shelter costs, which rose by 4.9% and contributed significantly to the monthly CPI. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 3.3% annually. Monthly inflation rose by 0.2%, in line with recent trends. Food prices saw a 2.1% increase year-over-year, with food away from home climbing 3.8%. Energy prices, however, declined by 4.9% year-over-year, largely due to drops in fuel oil and gasoline prices, which fell by 20.8% and 12.2%, respectively. This deceleration in energy costs helped moderate the overall inflation rate despite the rising shel
December 24, Feb Rate Cut -25bps Is On The Way!
avatarTopdownCharts
2024-11-10

Stocks went from de-risking to re-risking this week

Stocks went from de-risking to re-risking this week
avatarTiger_Contra
2024-11-11

Trump 2.0: 3 Security Stocks to Ensure Investment Success: PLTR, FTNT, AXON

Here comes WassUp, aka TINA - Tiger Introducing New Alpha, our tips for investing.Bet on memes? Mind your steps. This security strategy gets your back.Stay tuned and supercharge purchasing power with CashBoost!Market recapStocks rose at the end of their best week in 2024 amid solid consumer sentiment data and bets that Donald Trump’s promises of tax cuts will further benefit corporations. However, After the rate cut last Friday, market is reckoning that the likelihood of further reductions has diminished, and the extent of any future cuts may fall short of expectations. Following the election, Trump trade has made a comeback, prompting a risk-on sentiment in the market. However, if the market starts to factor in policy uncertainties and the Fed's potential adjustments to its rate-cutting s
Trump 2.0: 3 Security Stocks to Ensure Investment Success: PLTR, FTNT, AXON
avatarGimaGO
2024-11-15
The expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in December suggests that market participants are factoring in ongoing inflationary pressures or concerns over economic stability, which could lead to a period of elevated rates. In terms of the stock market, this could have a variety of effects, and the outlook largely depends on investor sentiment and the broader economic context. Impact on the Stock Market: 1. Interest Rates and Valuations: Higher interest rates generally put downward pressure on stock valuations, particularly for growth stocks, since the cost of capital increases and future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. If the market was expecting a rate cut in December and that doesn't materialize, we could see a pullback, especially in sectors sensitive to intere
avatarnerdbull1669
2024-11-05

04 Nov Market Lower Before Election Day and Fed Interest Rates Decision

On Tuesday, we saw major U.S. equities indices moved lower, this is the final market session before the Election Day on 05 November 2024. This week trading will also see Federal Reserve's interest-rate announcement on Thursday and the latest stream of corporate earnings reports on top of the political developments. The S&P 500 closed 0.28% lower as voters prepared to head to the polls. The NASDAQ also fell 0.33%, while the DJIA lost 0.61%. This has cancelled off gains from last Friday when earnings news boosted technology stocks and the October jobs report reinforced expectations that the Fed will continue cutting interest rates. NASDAQ had its seven-week win streak taken out and S&P 500 and DJIA posted weekly losses for the second consecutive week. Large-cap technology stocks were
04 Nov Market Lower Before Election Day and Fed Interest Rates Decision

$SE Rose over 10% after Earnings, How Sea Limited Revised This Year?

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ released its Q2 2024 earnings before the bell on November 12, 2024 and jumped 10% on the dayOverall it was an excellent quarter of performance, with financial and operational metrics above expectations across the board, especially in the e-commerce and financial businesses.Shopee is at a critical point in its turnaround, Seamoney is making rapid progress in its BNPL business, and Garena's gaming business, while still going through a cycle, has been anticipated by the market for some time.Based on the current trend of margins (5% operating profit), the company is expected to achieve to reach a stable level of profitability sooner than expected, and with the PE expected to be under 30x in 2026, it has to be said that investor optimism is
$SE Rose over 10% after Earnings, How Sea Limited Revised This Year?
avatarTiger_Contra
2024-10-24

💰A Tool to Bet on High Dividend & Double Digital Return ETFs for 2025

As the US Fed begins its interest rate cut cycle, the market's expectations for a decline in US interest rates are growing. The US market has set off a wave of high-dividend investment, and more and more investors are choosing to invest in high-dividend products.High-dividend ETFs mainly determine the constituent stocks and holding ratios based on "cash dividends and dividends". Investing in high-dividend ETFs can regularly obtain considerable returns.Dividends can be a powerful source of income. Some investors harness them by investing in dividend stocks, but there's another option for those who want to save time on stock research: high-dividend ETFs.Takeaways$Invesco KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT ETF(KBWY)$ and
💰A Tool to Bet on High Dividend & Double Digital Return ETFs for 2025
avatarKYHBKO
2024-11-10

My Investing Muse (11Nov24) - Commercial MBS, layoffs and post election

My Investing Muse (11Nov24) Layoffs & Closure news Stellantis to lay off 400 workers at Detroit parts facility - Reuters Boeing to repay furloughed staff, proceed with job cuts - Reuters THE head of HSBC Holdings’s new global wholesale banking division said the lender will seek to wrap up an ongoing restructuring “very quickly” and could announce the first round of job cuts within weeks. - Business Times Sharan Hegde, the influential financial content creator with over 2.7 million Instagram followers, has announced the layoff of 15 per cent of his workforce. - LiveMint KPMG to Lay Off 4% of U.S. Audit Workforce to Counter Fewer Voluntary Exits - WSJ $5B petrochemical complex ceases operation in southern Vietnam - VN Express SPH Media cuts 10% of tech employees in restructuring move in
My Investing Muse (11Nov24) - Commercial MBS, layoffs and post election
avatarDoTrading
2024-11-09

Post-Election Euphoria on Wall Street

The Market’s Reaction and Performance Index Following Donald Trump’s re-election, U.S. markets experienced a substantial rally as major indices climbed to unprecedented highs. The $.SPX(.SPX)$ ended the week up 4.7%, the $.DJI(.DJI)$ rose 4.6%, and the $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ ncreased 5.7%… $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ … , making it the best week of 2023 for all three indices. This surge reflects optimism surrounding Trump’s anticipated pro-business policies, which include tax cuts and reduced regulation that could drive corporate growth. The clarity provided by a decisive e
Post-Election Euphoria on Wall Street
avatarETF Tracker
2024-11-12

$DXYZ rose 223.5% last week Because of Elon Musk and SPACE X

$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ rose 223.5% last week and rose another 17.21% on Monday.The rise of DXYZ is mainly attributed to the continued benefit of SPACE X & OPEN AI, the fund's main holdings, after Trump was elected the 47th President of the United States.The reason is that people expect Elon Musk, as Trump's biggest supporter, and his startup SPACE X may receive more orders in the future.1. Many tiger friends may not know much about $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ Destiny Tech100, stock code DXYZ, which was listed in March 2024, is somewhat different from ordinary US stock companies and ETFs. DXYZ is neither an ordinary enterprise nor an ETF, but a closed-end fund management company registered under t
$DXYZ rose 223.5% last week Because of Elon Musk and SPACE X
avatarTiger_comments
2024-11-07

FOMC Rate Cut Tonight! Can S&P Hit 6000 This Friday?

After US election results, investors are now turning their attention to today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.Powell will avoid answering election-related questions, striving to remain politically neutral. Typically, the Fed announces its rate decision in the early hours of Thursday, but this time it has been postponed to Friday to distance it from political events.The market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but the key lies in the Fed’s policy guidance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25 bps cut in November.1. Will "Trump trade" lead to reflation?Trump's victory signals faster economic growth and higher inflation. Trump’s proposed tax cuts and deficit spending could lead to reflation. He has also considered replacing the Fed leadership
FOMC Rate Cut Tonight! Can S&P Hit 6000 This Friday?

What will Trump brings to Fed Monetary Policy?

The November 2024 FOMC meeting cut rates by 25 basis points as the market expected, with the target range adjusted to 4.5%-4.75%.The Fed adopted a more flexible monetary policy in response to the current economic situation.Powell emphasized the complexity of the current job market and inflation situationIn the meeting statement, the Federal Reserve's description of the job market from "slowdown" to "general easing", and at the same time the statement on inflation was also fine-tuned to remove the expectation that inflation will continue to declineThese changes reflect the Fed's assessment of the economic situation has been adjusted, but overall did not deviate from its objectives.Future monetary policy will depend on changes in economic data rather than a predetermined path.This open-ended
What will Trump brings to Fed Monetary Policy?

How Japanese Election Change The Assets?

Japan's political scene has been shaken by a sudden earthquake, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing its governing position for the first time since 2009, and Shigeru Ishiba's dream of becoming prime minister being snuffed out just a month ago.Although he has not been in power for a long time, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's "black money" scandal is now in full swing, and the news about the irregular use of the LDP's political funds has greatly reduced the LDP government's support in the polls.Last weekend, the 50th House of Representatives election, in the 465 seats, the Liberal Democratic Party 191 seats, the Komeito party 24 seats (the two parties formed a ruling coalition of 215 seats, not reached a majority of 233 seats); the Constitutional Democratic Party 148 seats,
How Japanese Election Change The Assets?
avatarGreg BOLAND
2024-11-21

My Quick Comments on NVDA earnings,BTC ETFs and Fed Path

NVIDIA Reported after the bell this morning All eyes were on $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ that reported quarterly results after the close of the US market today. The company reported quarterly earnings of $0.81 per share which beat analyst’s consensus estimates of $0.75 by 8 percent. Quarterly sales were $35.1 billion which also beat analyst’s consensus estimates of $33.125 billion. This represents a 94 percent increase in sales above $18.120 billion for the same period last year. For the next quarter, Nvidia projects $37.5 billion in revenue at the midpoint. That compares with the $37.1 billion FactSet consensus but obviously was not high enough for some lofty expectations by some. Nvidia shares slipped 1.5% in afterhours trading having closed down 0.8% a
My Quick Comments on NVDA earnings,BTC ETFs and Fed Path
avatarTBI
2024-11-17

TBI's Thoughts [15]: MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA)... Miner Galore?

Hi everyone, here’s the free newsletter for the week! MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) Since 2020, MARA has been forming a series of higher lows, although it has yet to form a higher high since peaking at 83.45 in Nov’21. Upside has also been limited due to the resistance trendline (in blue) from the peak. However, the monthly Stochastic is about to complete a bullish crossover, subject to this month’s candle (similar to AMD). The weekly Stochastic is heading into extreme overbought levels, while RSI is curling back to the upside. Since Dec’23, the range on MARA has gotten tighter and tighter. We have been seeing consolidation for over a year in this descending channel (in red), with lower highs and lower lows. However, we might be seeing a change in character here. We can see 2 bearish
TBI's Thoughts [15]: MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA)... Miner Galore?
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