(Part 4 of 5) News and my thoughts from the past week (26Oct2026)
News and my thoughts from the past week (26Oct2026) 1. Major-company job cuts — American Express: 5%, about 3,500 employees; Barclays: 5,000 as AI improves efficiency; eBay: about 9%; Netflix: 6% globally, about 1,000 (WSJ via X user Zerohedge). Comcast plans significant cuts before its NBCUniversal spinoff (Bloomberg, 21 Oct). Perspective: cost savings are visible; extra AI revenue remains uncertain. 2. Morgan Stanley cuts its AMD chip forecast — Its 2026–2030 graphics-chip (GPU) forecast fell 43%, from 14.1 million to 8.0 million units: 5.9 million fewer (Morgan Stanley chart, 14 October). Perspective: weaker demand echoes the revenue and spending concerns in items 3 and 5. 3. AI revenue: expectations versus results — Rand Group Research compares combined OpenAI and Anthropic annual recu
Junk Bond Yields Rose 1.39 Points In Six Months. The Weakest Ones Rose 5.02.
The average high-yield bond now yields 8.14%. Six months ago it was 6.75%. The weakest slice, rated CCC and below, went from 12.97% to 17.99%. Same market, same six months. The average moved 1.39 points. The bottom moved 5.02. WHY THE AVERAGE LOOKS CALM An index is an average. An average can sit still while one part of it falls apart, because the healthy parts pull the number back toward the middle. That is true of a bond index, a sector fund, and your own options book. If you only read the headline number, you find out about the tail last. Here is how to split an average and see where the move really came from. THE THREE CHECKS Check one: write down the move in the headline number between two dates. Pick the dates before you look, so you don't choose the window that tells the best story.
The market is giving mixed signals, and Monday’s best opportunities may come down to how price reacts at key technical levels. Here’s what I’m watching across $SPX, $AAPL, $AVGO, $SPOT, $NOW, $CRWD and $IREN. 👇 🔹 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Friday’s price action was indecisive, but the index is not oversold. 📉 Bearish below 7,632 🎯 Targets: 7,603 → 7,583 🚧 Hard resistance: 7,647.2, then 7,651.9 📩 I send modeled levels for the next session by email every day. Join the list via the link in bio. 🍎 $Apple(AAPL)$ Indecisive price action near the upper Bollinger Band has historically led to a pullback toward at least the 20DMA. This time may be no different, with 338 in sight. ⚡
🐶📊 Midday Market Update — 26 October 2026 Options Puppy’s Market Takeaway 🥇 1. Gold rebounds Gold rebounded after falling below US$3,980. Buyers may be stepping in at lower levels, but I want to see whether the recovery can continue. My view: Watch whether gold holds its rebound instead of chasing the price. 🛢️ 2. Oil retreats Oil prices retreated today. Lower oil prices may ease inflationary pressures, but the impact depends on supply, demand and the wider economic outlook. My view: Monitor oil prices, inflation expectations and interest-rate developments before making a trading decision. 🏦 3. Singapore banks: DBS and OCBC DBS and OCBC experienced intraday declines before rebounding. * DBS: Fell towards S$73.80 before recovering. * OCBC: Dropped towards S$28.80 before rebounding. * OCBC p
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ Simple, nobody knows. whoever tells you they know, are foolish. nonethless, if you run back to the scenario of msft back when it was dropping everyday, 14 consecutive red candles. Why? Capex worries. And when MSFT announce their ER on the 2nd time, what happened? it went from 320 levels to 450 level. Msft is at 500-ish now. These are the companies that can scale in this AI narrative. MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, now meta and very likely, TSLA. Hence, it is a good opportunity to accumulate. Also, midterm elections will affect stock prices for sure. I mean it in a good way. Correction is needed in order to sustain this bull market.
Your portfolio thinks it’s diversified. Your risk budget knows better. Semiconductors are only ~13% of the global stock market by weight… …but they’re eating ~20% of the entire risk capital. Tech overall? 28% of the index, 40% of the risk. That’s not diversification. That’s a high-beta AI casino wearing a passive-index costume. Low vol made everyone lever up. VaR models said “more size, king.” Now any shock → first thing sold = the chips. Vol rises → more selling → more vol. Snowball goes brrr. Fundamentals can be fine. Positioning doesn’t care. When 1/5 of global risk lives in semis, every wiggle becomes a forced-liquidation party. Welcome to 2026: the market is a semiconductor ETF with extra steps. Manage the risk, or the risk manages you. Do not over leverage.
CRCL Has 7 Trading Days Until Earnings. Here Is My Roadmap to Nov 4.
$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ Circle closed at $85.91, but the headline number hides something interesting. CRCL has spent most of October absorbing repeated selling without losing the $80 area. It fell from nearly $100. It briefly flushed to $75.27. It recovered. And now it is compressing around $85-$87 with RSI almost perfectly neutral. That does not look like a stock investors have abandoned. It looks like a stock waiting for its next catalyst. And there are only seven trading sessions before Circle reports Q3 earnings on Nov 4. My base case? CRCL tests $90-$92 next week, then makes an attempt at $95-$100 immediately before earnings. But there are two very different forces that will decide whether that happens. WEEK 1: OCT 26-30 The macr
SpaceX’s $40 Billion GPU Financing—and Musk’s Warning of an AI Cloud Shakeout
Elon Musk has raised a question for AI infrastructure investors: if demand keeps growing, why might some cloud providers struggle to survive? In an X post on October 25 U.S. time, Musk said debt markets had largely closed to companies without substantial revenue outside AI data centers. He said SpaceX had completed $40 billion in GPU debt financing, pointing to what he described as its investment-grade credit standing and revenue from Starlink and rocket launches. He then predicted widespread failures and consolidation among more than 200 neocloud companies, with relatively few making it through. Those statements about financing conditions, the number of providers, and their prospects are Musk’s assessment—not independently verified industry-wide findings. He did not specify a failure rate
The S&P 500 Earnings Boom Has a Concentration Problem
Wall Street is expecting a strong earnings season, but there is a detail investors should not overlook: much of the expected profit growth is coming from a surprisingly small group of companies. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to deliver approximately 30% earnings growth in the third quarter compared with a year earlier. According to the figures cited in the report, Nvidia and Micron alone account for 34% of that expected growth, while just 10 companies contribute roughly two-thirds. That raises an important question: Is the US stock market experiencing broad-based earnings growth, or is it becoming increasingly dependent on the AI boom? 1. AI is driving earnings expectations Nvidia and Micron are benefiting from demand for AI computing and memory infrastructure. Broadcom and Meta ar
The Great AI Re-Rating: Free Cash Flow, Capex Discipline, and the Resurgence of Value
"Buffett Trade" is experiencing a massive resurgence as the market undergoes a structural shift: pure AI beta is rapidly giving way to a strict focus on free cash flow (FCF) and balance sheet stability. In this article we seek to addresses the structural shift from speculative AI beta toward capital discipline, free cash flow (FCF), and balance sheet strength—the modern "Buffett Trade" synthesis. We are also looking at the macro strategic side on the paradigm shift from unfunded AI beta to balance sheet stability and cash-flow synthesis. 1. The Anatomy of the AI "Cash Crunch" Over the past 24 months, public markets operated under a simple regime: any announcement of accelerated graphics processing unit (GPU) procurement or datacenter expansion yielded immediate valuation expansion. However
Iggy’s Journal: S-REIT Results From 27 to 30 October: Which Figures to Read First, and What a Headline Number Leaves Out
Iggy’s Journal: S-REIT Results From 27 to 30 October: Which Figures to Read First, and What a Headline Number Leaves Out Monday 26 Oct 2026 | Morning The Numbers S-REIT results are due from 27 to 30 October. An illustration from the episode, with made-up numbers: a landlord’s distributable income for the half-year rises 5% to S$525,000. After it issues 80,000 new units, the payout per unit is about 49 cents, down from 50 cents. By my back-calculation that implies about 1,000,000 units and S$500,000 of income before the issue. A second illustration: gearing moves from 35% to nearly 39%, with no new borrowing. My Personal Take The example works because every figure in it is true and the payout per unit still falls. Income up 5% is the number that gets reported, and the other column is the on
📉 Strong Profits, Falling Stocks: What Is Wall Street Seeing?
Apple, Meta and other major companies can deliver solid financial results and still see their share prices fall. Why? Because Wall Street doesn’t just buy what a company has earned. It buys what it expects the company to earn next. When expectations are already high, even good results can disappoint. 🍎 $Apple(AAPL)$ : Growth Expectations Matter Apple’s challenge is not simply selling more iPhones. Investors are also watching its ability to sustain demand, expand its services business and demonstrate meaningful progress in AI. If future growth looks slower than expected, a strong quarter may not be enough to support the share price. 🤖 $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ : Spending Today for Growth Tomor
🏆 TigerStars Weekly Spotlight: (Oct 19-25) Top Creators
🐯Hi Tigers, Every week, we shine a light on the voices driving our community forward — the creators whose insight, consistency, and engagement set the bar for the Tiger Brokers English community. Here's who topped the charts this week 👇 Click on any creator's name to check out their content and join the conversation in the comments! 📈 Top 10 — Post Views (PV) Creator Article @Shyon ServiceNow: Why I Continue to Collect and Average Up Strong fundamentals, growing AI opportunities, and a bullish technical setup... @koolgal $$Vanguard Total World Stock ETF(VT$$ 🌟🌟🌟I invest in VT because I am not chasing trends...
🏆Weekly (Oct 19-25) Tiger Brokers TOP Contributors Awards Winners List
[Allin]Hi~ Tigers Come take a look at this week's winners! 🏆 Stock vouchers will soon be sent to your account — keep an eye out on your Rewards Center! Each week, we select 15 winning creators across 2 tracks: Editor's Note: The following images are AI-generated only. Creators' avatars may differ from real avatars. Please click on the author to view their real avatar. 1.Most Popular Contributor Award Congrats on winning $10~$15 vouchers! $15 @koolgal $15 @Optionspuppy $15 @Isleigh $10 @Kelvin 梁 $10
🔻 SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rejected daily resistance, just as expected. The October low target has been hit. ✅ Now watch for one quick bounce into the 7,660–7,690 daily gap. That zone should attract sellers again. 🎯 Next downside target: 7,558 — the equality target. ⚠️ If SPX breaks above 7,690, expect a larger bounce before another leg lower toward the September low. 📅 FOMC Wednesday. Stay alert. 🚀 THE ROAD TO 10,000 Short term: Pullback. Big picture: Still targeting 10,000. Two possible paths from here: 🟢 Path 1: Shallow Dip SPX pulls back to 7,400–7,300, finds support, then makes one final push higher. 🔴 Path 2: Deeper Correction The rally from 2022 is complete, and SPX drops toward 7,000 before the next major move. 🎯
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ 🐂 THE BULL CASE 🤖 AI: Gemini puts Google among the AI leaders, while its in-house TPUs help lower inference costs. ☁️ Cloud: Revenue has grown 195% since 2022, with a $514B backlog signaling substantial demand. 🚘 Waymo: Already operating paid robotaxi services in multiple US cities, giving Google a foothold in autonomous driving. 📺 YouTube: A dual engine of advertising and subscriptions, steadily capturing more TV viewing time. 💰 MARGIN PROFILE • Gross margin: 61% • EBIT margin: 33% • Net margin: 55% • FCF margin: 12% 📈 GROWTH SINCE 2022 • Total revenue: +58% • EPS: +337% • YouTube revenue: +46% • Cloud revenue: +195% 🔮 2028 ESTIMATES • Revenue: $753B | 23% CAGR • EPS: $18.16 | -4% CAGR • FCF: $6.1B | -58% CAGR ⚠️ The projected EP
Investing 101: The SDR Series -Spotlight on Thailand's Market Leaders
🌟🌟🌟When the SGX launched Singapore Depository Receipts (SDRs), Thailand made financial history by becoming the very first market available through the framework. This landmark cross border link dissolved the traditional barriers to international investing. Suddenly, Singapore retail investors could trade Thailand's elite corporate powerhouses directly in Singapore Dollars, without the friction of foreign currency conversions, offshore account minimums or complex custody fees. To understand why these SDRs are so powerful, you have to look beyond the stock exchange to the macro economy fueling them. Thailand has quietly transformed into the ultimate economic "middle ground" within ASEAN. Moving rapidly past traditional agriculture and old world manufacturing, th
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has begun producing “production-quality” Optimus humanoid robots at its Fremont, California factory. This milestone arrives alongside a sharp -43% decline in its Q3 2026 profit, underscoring the cost of its pivot toward AI, autonomy, and robotics. Optimus Enters Production TSLA said the robots coming off the Fremont line are its first production-quality Optimus units, marking a shift from earlier pilot builds and small test batches. The company said its current manufacturing process is “suitable for a commercial product,” although it has not disclosed production volumes, delivery dates, external-customer timelines, or pricing. The production site is symbolically significant: Fremont has been TSLA’s flagship US vehicle-assembly