Here are my talk about AI Industry. Full live link replay >>I have shared a lot about AI trends in the past. Just bear in mind that the AI total addressable market is huge.The valuation for a lot of AI stocks is expensive, but still not as crazily expensive as during the dot-com bubble.For example, the P/E ratio for the Nasdaq 100 is now trading at 35x. At the peak of the dot-com bubble, it was trading at 175x.1995 marked the start of internet monetization. It also kickstarted the dot-com bubble.The entire dot-com bubble lasted for 5 years, from 1995 to 2000.At its peak, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ returned

First, let’s spend some time on Trump’s policy. Full live link replay >>The most important thing you need to know is that Trump’s policies are pro-growth and pro-business, which should be constructive for the U.S. equity market in 2025.For example, he has said that he wants to extend the 2017 personal tax cuts and lower the corporate tax rate.The question here is:How likely is Congress to approve Trump’s tax cut plan?The answer is quite likely because Republicans have a majority in the House and Senate.Trump also pledges to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for corporations that manufacture products in the U.S.The purpose is to

Last year, U.S. share prices surged by 25%. Since the financial crash in 2009, share prices have skyrocketed by 300%. While many Americans continue to live paycheck to paycheck, Wall Street is thriving. By nearly every metric, U.S. share prices are now overvalued, with price-to-earnings ratios at record highs, surpassing levels seen before the dot-com bubble burst in 2001. The U.S. stock market's capitalization now exceeds 200% of GDP, four times its size in the early 1990s. In the early 2000s, tech stocks reached unsustainable price-to-income multiples, driven by enthusiasm for the internet. When that bubble burst, the NASDAQ plunged 77%. Today, artificial intelligence has sparked a similar wave of optimism. Yet, history suggests that speculative bubbles often end poorly, as human tendenc

The year-end market rally seems to have hit turbulence as U.S. stocks experienced a pullback during early trading on Monday. Investors now face a critical decision: buy the dip or lock in profits before the New Year? With S&P 500 (SPX) nearing the key psychological level of 6,000, the stakes have never been higher. Market Update: What’s Happening? 1. Pullback Signals Broad Market Decline: Major indices, including the Dow Jones and Nasdaq, saw declines of 1-2% as profit-taking emerged. Sector Weakness: Growth stocks, particularly in tech and energy, led the drop, while defensive sectors like utilities outperformed. 2. Analysts’ Take 2024 SPX Target: Analysts project SPX closing just above 6,000, driven by strong Q4 earnings and easing inflation. 2025 Pullback Forecast: Early 2025 may br

David Tepper increased $BABA again! Now it's 15% of his portfolio He added $PDD $JD $BIDU $FXI $KWEB and reduced $META $AMZN RECAP: more China and less USA. What do you think about this strategy? (From X user Natan Investing)

As 2024 draws to an end with Christmas bells ringing, I finished adjusting most of the positions for the year.  Looking back, I started 2024 with backlog from 2023.  I did 2 major mistakes then in 2023. 1. Overconcentrated positions in Alibaba, which resulted in big swings against my portfolio. Margin requirements went up significantly also, as at peak, up to 80% of my margin requirement was used up by Alibaba. I resolved to reduce my Alibaba sizes in 2024 and diversified away.  This is also the reason why many experienced investors advocated portfolio and risk management. Over concentration does bring fast money, but disproportionate risks as well.  2. Earnings play. During 2023, I dabbled in earnings play by selling short strangles. Most of the time, I made money, but

Recap 2024 and Adapting to 2025: Investing in a Rapidly Changing World As the investment landscape evolves, reflecting on past successes and strategies becomes essential for future planning. This article highlights my most memorable trades in 2024, overarching themes that defined the year, and predictions for navigating 2025. Through diligence, research, and timing, 2024 was a rewarding year for my portfolio. Part 1: Memorable Transactions of 2024 Palantir Technologies (PLTR): A Masterclass in Option Strategy One of my standout trades involved Palantir Technologies. On November 18th, I purchased 100 shares at $61.96 and sold a call option with a $61 strike price, earning a $3.29 premium. This covered call strategy generated a 4% return in just 10 days. • Risk Management: Selling the call r

Fed Outlook 2025: A More Hawkish Fed Committee May Spark More Dissent As we step into 2025, the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has sent ripples through global markets. Last Wednesday's meeting not only raised the inflation outlook but also signaled a restrained approach to rate cuts, leaving investors scrambling to evaluate its potential impacts on the financial landscape. Powell's Hawkish Tone Shakes Wall Street During the December FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell's hawkish stance directly led to a reevaluation of the projected interest rate path for 2025. These adjustments in market expectations have triggered significant turbulence in both equity and bond markets. Beyond the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps), th

$Texas Oil Index ETF(OILT)$ Heirsay JC888 whose blockEd me - what a baby - even meta has opened up free opinion-! What's ya crutch do you love Biden that much? Anyway, back to basics- this is before trump even takes the stage - so guess what 🙀 oil is already going up and I think it's a blind bet on reality as at this point and time what will replace the need of 90% of consumers? I don't know if you run high powered Battery vehicles or what, but if you want to drive up to the Himalayan summit you may as well book an aviation fuelEd craft that doesn't rely on limits  Biden and son hunter have a lot of explaining to do with the laptop that went to Ukraine and back but was never picked up by hunter - I guess he didn't read the small print 😳 For w

Last week, assets entered a new wave of correction after the December FOMC meeting.First, on the rate cut front, the Fed cut 25bp as planned, bringing the benchmark rate back to 4.25%-4.5%, just as the market thought it would be, as November data on nonfarm payrolls, service prices, and rents, as well as data on GDP and the unemployment rate, all supported the cut.Second, at the meeting the Fed indicated that rate cuts would slow down in the future, with the "dot plot" showing only two cuts in 2025, less than the market expected.The meeting statement also added to consider the "magnitude and timing" of the words, Powell also said to be more cautious, move more slowly, but also have to keep an eye on the trend of inflation.In addition, the Fed has adjusted its economic data forecasts for 20

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, Powell’s Hawkish Comments Rattle Markets: Is the Stock Market Peaking Again? Last week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.5%. However, the accompanying statements were notably hawkish, with the Cleveland Fed President voting against the decision. Powell also publicly stated, “The current rate policy is no longer as restrictive, and future adjustments will be more cautious.” This aligns with our earlier assessment that the Fed would pause further rate cuts after this one. The dot plot also reflects a more hawkish stance, with three officials suggesting that the Fe

2024 was a year of significant ups and downs for Advanced Micro Devices ( $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ ), marked by stellar growth in key sectors and unexpected downturns in others. As we stand at the threshold of 2025, let's delve into the year that was, the reasons behind AMD's market performance, and what the future might hold for investors. AMD SP's performance in 2024 Performance in 2024: A Tale of Two Halves Early 2024 - The Highs: Revenue Surge: AMD started 2024 with a bang, reporting an 18% year-over-year (Y/Y) increase in Q3 revenue to $6.8 billion, surpassing expectations by $110 million. This was largely driven by a 122% Y/Y growth in data centre revenue, amounting to $3.5 billion, thanks to the booming demand for AI GPUs. AI GPU Demand

Here are my talk about US tariff. Full live link replay >>About one month ago, Trump said he wanted to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico,and an additional 10% on China.Basically, if the U.S. imposes tariffs on any country, that country will still want to export to the U.S. because it is difficult to find a replacement with the size and appetite of the U.S.The common way to make your goods still look affordable to U.S. companies is through currency depreciation.For example, in 2018-2019, the RMB depreciated as much as 13% when the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods.Trump’s tariffs are a negotiating tactic to reach a deal.For i

As a Singaporean investor focusing on the US stock and ETF markets, I often face the added complexity of currency exchange rates. Since the US dollar (USD) is strong right now, largely due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, it has been trading at approximately 1 USD to 1.363 SGD. This makes converting my Singapore dollars (SGD) into USD less favorable at the moment. Current Strategy: Holding Off on Conversions To mitigate the impact of the strong USD, I’m currently investing only with the USD I already hold in money market funds rather than converting fresh SGD into USD. These funds not only preserve my USD capital but also provide a small return, allowing me to maintain liquidity for potential investment opportunities. Considerations Before Buying Stocks The strong USD presents a di

As we bid farewell to a volatile 2024, investors are turning their gaze toward the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in 2025. The U.S. stock market has been a stage for both euphoria and caution, and 2025 promises to bring another chapter of uncertainty, shaped by economic policies, geopolitical dynamics, and technological breakthroughs. Let’s dive into the key factors that will likely define the market's trajectory in the coming year. 1. Federal Reserve Policy: A Balancing Act The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will continue to be a dominant narrative in 2025. With inflation moderating in the latter half of 2024, the Fed paused rate hikes, but a potential soft landing remains elusive. The debate between “higher for longer” and “pivoting” will shape equity markets, especially