The Buffett Series: What Surprising Truths Have You Overlooked?

There is a classic probability puzzle known as the "Birthday Paradox". Warren Buffett once used this paradox to make a bet. This case is quite meaningful, as it serves as a reminder that: Probability is more counterintuitive than we imagine. There are many such examples in the stock market. Throughout his life, Buffett has shared numerous quotes and stories that serve as warnings to investors. Would you like more examples of counterintuitive investing principles or mental models? What other Buffett anecdotes do you know? What’s the best lesson Buffet ever teach to you?

avatarJinHan
05-01

Power Dinners: Trump's Steak or Buffett's Wisdom – The Ultimate Investor's Dilemma

Imagine this: You have one golden ticket to dine with either Donald Trump or Warren Buffett. No media, no handlers – just you, your burning investment questions, and a legendary figure who's shaped modern finance. Who would you choose? This isn't just about food preferences – it's about fundamentally different approaches to wealth creation that could reshape your portfolio strategy. The Trump Experience: Deal-Making Over Dessert A dinner with the 45th President would be anything but ordinary. Here's what you'd likely take away: 1. The Art of the Deal (and the Rebrand) Trump's business empire thrived on licensing and branding (Trump Tower, hotels, golf courses) Key lesson: Creating perceived value can be as important as intrinsic value Modern parallel: Meme stocks and celebrity crypto endor
Power Dinners: Trump's Steak or Buffett's Wisdom – The Ultimate Investor's Dilemma
avatarkoolgal
05-05

Warren Buffett's Counterintuitive Truths And Applying Them In Today's Market

🌟🌟🌟Warren Buffett is famous for his Counterintuitive Truths.  In fact his long and storied career is built on principles that often run against conventional market instincts.  Rather than chasing flashy high growth stories or trying to time the market moods, Warren Buffett's approach rests on a set of core Counterintuitive insights that have enabled him to build enduring wealth over decades. Definition of a Counterintuitive Truth  A Counterintuitive Truth is an idea or fact that runs against our natural instincts or commonly held beliefs.  However it turns out to be true when examined carefully.  In other words, it is a reality that surprises us by defying what we instinctively expect, often because our intuition is influenced by preconceived notions or oversimplif
Warren Buffett's Counterintuitive Truths And Applying Them In Today's Market
avatarBarcode
05-03
$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ 🚨🗞️👑 The Oracle’s Last Waltz: Buffett Steps Down as CEO 👑🗞️🚨 🧭 Warren Buffett has been my financial compass since I first stumbled into the world of markets. His annual letters were my masterclasses, his stock picks my puzzles, his restraint my mantra. He taught me that simplicity is strength, patience is power, and value is timeless, even in a world addicted to frenzy. Today, learning that Buffett has stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway feels like the markets have lost their polestar, a quiet, steady light in a sky full of noise. Buffett wasn’t just the Oracle of Omaha. He was the conviction behind my trades, the clarity in my chaos, the wis

Trump Dinner vs. Buffett Lunch: Which Would You Choose?

Last week, Trump announced what he claimed to be the “world’s most exclusive invitation”: the top 220 buyers of the Trump Coin ($TRUMP) would be invited to a private dinner with the President on May 22.This brings to mind the annual Warren Buffett lunch that used to take place around this time each year.In 2022, an anonymous buyer paid $19 million for the final opportunity to have lunch with Buffett. The auction was started by Buffett’s late wife Susan in 2000 and was held annually, with proceeds totaling $50 million donated to foundations supporting the homeless, the poor, and other vulnerable groups.The winner of the auction could invite up to seven guests to dine with Buffett at Smith & Wollensky steakhouse in Manhattan, New York, and discuss investment-related topics. The menu usua
Trump Dinner vs. Buffett Lunch: Which Would You Choose?

Think Like Buffett: What Counterintuitive Truths Have You Overlooked?

At a party with 25 people, what is the probability that at least two of them share the same birthday?This is a classic probability puzzle known as the "Birthday Paradox". Warren Buffett once used this paradox to make a bet.At a gathering of Benjamin Graham followers, Buffett claimed that in a group of 25 attendees, at least two would share the same birthday. It turned out Buffett was right.“The simple (but surprising) explanation is that the probability of this happening is around 60%.”Probability sometimes is unintuitiveIn fact, a more accurate estimate of the probability is about 57%. That figure is still surprisingly high—so how is it calculated?Assume there are 25 people, and each birthday is uniformly distributed across 365 days in a year. Let's first calculate the easier scenario: th
Think Like Buffett: What Counterintuitive Truths Have You Overlooked?
avatarShyon
04-30
If I had to choose between dining with Warren Buffett or Donald Trump, I’d go with Buffett. While Trump’s dinner promises more flash—like the VIP reception and “Golden Palace” tour—I value substance over show. Buffett’s wisdom and long-term investment thinking offer far more meaningful takeaways, even without discussing his next big move. Trump’s event might appeal to those chasing exclusivity or crypto hype, but the disclaimer that he “may be unable to attend” makes it feel more like a marketing ploy. Replacing a missed dinner with an NFT doesn’t exactly build trust or credibility. Buffett has earned respect through decades of consistency and sound judgment. Even if much of his thinking is already in his letters, a personal conversation would still be more valuable than the unpredictable
Buffett’s lunch offers timeless wisdom rooted in fundamentals—compounding, value, patience. Trump’s dinner? A high-stakes table where policy hints and market-moving rhetoric are on the menu. As a trader, I choose Trump: not for ideology, but for real-time signals that could tilt sectors overnight. Insight is gold—but timing is platinum.
avatarBarcode
04-28
$OFFICIAL TRUMP(TRUMP.USD.CC)$ 🚨🔥🐳 A Whale Just Tore Through the $TRUMP Dinner Party Like a Category 5 Hurricane 🐳🔥🚨 I’m watching this unfold in real time, and it’s wild!  Picture this, a crypto titan, a true leviathan of the digital deep, just sucked up 190,987 $TRUMP tokens, $2.83 million worth, straight out of Binance’s vaults, no hesitation, no apologies. This isn’t a dip in the pool, it’s a cannonball sending shockwaves through the market. The wallet behind this seismic move? “MeCo,” who’s now bulldozed their way into the VIP 2nd spot on the $TRUMP leaderboard, practically breathing down Justin Sun’s neck. Trust me, they didn’t come to sip tea and trade pleasantries, they’re here to dominate. Right now, MeCo holds a jaw-droppi

Warren Buffett explains why Berkshire Hathaway price can go up if he passes away

Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B) Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A) I expect the succession question to be asked again in the Berkshire Hathaway 2025 annual meeting. Buffett himself already explained (see the video below) why BRK stocks price can go up tomorrow if he passes away today. https://youtu.be/YP8VyvLfwYg Some of my additional thoughts are below: Removal of "Key Person Risk" Discount: Currently, a portion of BRK's stock valuation might be discounted due to the "key person risk" associated with Warren Buffett. His exceptional track record and influence are undeniable. Upon his passing, this specific risk factor would be removed. Some investors who were hesitant due to this concentration of influence might then
Warren Buffett explains why Berkshire Hathaway price can go up if he passes away
avatarkoolgal
05-05
🌟🌟🌟Warren Buffett 's Most Famous Counterintuitive Truth is "Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful".  While many investors may shy away from the markets in times of widespread panic,  Warren Buffett's famous adage urges the opposite. This means when the markets are bearish and stock prices plummet , the best opportunities arise for those who are calm enough to see value where others see disaster. Warren Buffett's strategy is built on the idea that market over reactions create substantial buying opportunities.  His success shows that a little fear can create a deep well of opportunity for disciplined long term investors. Thank you Warren Buffett for this pearl of wisdom which I believe in and try to practise.  It takes courage and patience to do so.
avatarShyon
05-02
The Birthday Paradox has always intrigued me—especially how Warren Buffett used it to win a bet. At first, it seems unlikely that in a group of 25 people, two would share a birthday, but the math shows a 57% chance. It’s a great example of how our intuition often fails when dealing with probability. This kind of thinking error appears often in the stock market. Many believe a stock that has dropped 50% is unlikely to fall further, but if fundamentals worsen, another 20% drop is very possible. Markets respond to present conditions, not past price movements—just like a coin toss has no memory. One of the best lessons I’ve learned from Buffett is the power of independent thinking and patience. Like waiting for the right pitch in baseball, good investing means staying calm and avoiding emotio
The choice between a meal with Donald Trump or Warren Buffett hinges on personal priorities and the type of insights one seeks: Donald Trump: A dinner with Trump could offer a unique perspective on branding, media strategy, and his approach to business and politics. His controversial but influential career could lead to intriguing discussions, particularly for those interested in understanding his methods and public persona. Warren Buffett: Dining with Buffett would likely be a masterclass in investment philosophy, financial markets, and long-term wealth-building strategies. Known for his humility and wisdom, Buffett’s guidance could provide practical, enduring value for anyone interested in finance or business. If reality weren't a factor and personal growth were the goal, many might lean
@GoodLife99 @LMSunshine @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa @Universe宇宙 @rL @HelenJanet @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT People often misjudge probabilities in daily life, largely because we rely too heavily on intuition. In the stock market, such misjudgments ar
avatarMHh
05-01
I would choose dinner with trump. Spending money with buffet has no additional value except the honour of eating with someone who has high yields from his investments. Dinning with trump has the honour of dining with the US president who is otherwise commonly known as the most powerful man on earth. On top of that, he might share valuable insider news that could help me make money. This is based on a big assumption that he keeps his word. He is known to be flippant and could change his mind quickly. I can only hope he will honour his words for that short moment for me to make a quick profit. If he doesn’t appear, getting a trump NFT might be a sufficient enough investment [Happy] @Success88
I will choose a lunch with Buffett not just for the lessons in compounding capital, but in compounding wisdom. It’s the kind of conversation that could shape not just your portfolio, but your worldview. • Timeless Financial Wisdom: You’ll hear directly from a man who turned $10,000 into over $100 billion through discipline, temperament, and deep analysis. • Investment Philosophy: From intrinsic value to margin of safety, he can walk you through concepts that separate speculators from successful investors. • Life Lessons: Buffett often emphasizes not just money, but how to choose mentors, build integrity, and compound good decisions over a lifetime. Unlike Trump, Buffett doesn’t trade in controversy, market manipulation or bluff. But what he offers is self-promotion, bankrupt Wisdom. Wo
avatarAqa
04-30
Take note that the $TRUMP dinner invitation terms include a disclaimer that “President Trump may be unable to attend’. It may turns out to be a meeting among the top 220 buyers of the $TRuMP on 22 May 2025. This itself looks attractive to me because it is a good chance to meet 219 likeminded crypto investors. On the other hand, bringing 7 guests to lunch with Buffett at Smith & Wollensky steakhouse (costing <$100) in New York is a good charitable act, with millions of dollars donated to foundations supporting the homeless, the poor, and other vulnerable groups. Thanks @Tiger_comments @icycrystal
avatarMHh
05-02
This is indeed counterintuitive. Most of us would have dismissed it as close to zero chance. i am definitely looking forward to more examples to challenge my assumptions. I think the best lesson that buffet has taught us is not to lose money and the second rule is to always remember the first rule to not lose money. Definitely easier said than done! @HelenJanet @Wayneqq @LuckyPiggie @DiAngel @Universe宇宙 @rL @S
avatarAqa
05-02
I have learned from Warren Buffett to invest only in what I understand, maintaining a long-term perspective, avoid debt, focus on quality and understanding the value of a business before investing. Always stay informed and maintain a competitive edge. Above all, buy Berkshire Hathaway stock. It has grown 22% in value over the past year! Thanks @Tiger_SG @icycrystal
avatarSG 88
04-30
I believe having lunch with buffett (if I have millions of dollars to spare [LOL]) would great win the odds in the game of investment world VS a dinner with Trump where today's news become yesterday's laughing matters. Base on "trust", I'll definitely give Mr Buffett a High Five [Duh] @JC888 @BillionaireN @MillionaireTiger @koolgal @Blinkfans
avatarMrzorro
05-03
This is an easy choice for me. I will choose Trump dinner as I have never been to White House before, I would like to have the "Golden Palace" version tour. Doing charity no doubt is good but a limited Trump NFT sounds more attractive to me [Thinking]
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