Rate Cuts Delayed to June? Pullback Coming, Would You Hedge?

December core CPI eased to 2.6% YoY, a four-year low and broadly in line or slightly better than expectations. Yet the report failed to ignite a risk-on rally. Rate markets are now highly aligned: no cut in January, unlikely in March, with June priced as the earliest window. More notably, professional investors are already hedging against a more extreme scenario—no rate cuts even in 2026. If soft CPI can’t lift markets, what data would actually shift rate-cut expectations? With June as the first priced cut, is the market still underestimating “higher for longer” risk?

avatarxc__
01-15 14:02

🚨 Rate Cuts Vanish in 2026? Markets Brace for "Higher Forever" Shock – Time to Hedge or Hold? 🚨

December 2025 core CPI cooled to a crisp 2.6% year-over-year, hitting a four-year low and beating whispers of 2.7%. Headline inflation held steady at 2.7%, with monthly bumps from shelter and food, but used cars and energy dragged it down. Sounds like a win for disinflation, right? 😎 Yet stocks yawned – S&P 500 dipped 0.2%, Dow shed over 400 points, and Nasdaq barely budged. No fireworks, no risk-on frenzy. Why? Because this "soft" print didn't rewrite the Fed's script. Markets are now locked in: zero cuts in January (95% odds of hold), slim chance in March (under 20%), and June emerging as the real starting line for any easing. But here's the plot twist – big players like JPMorgan are ditching cuts entirely for 2026, predicting a 25bps hike by Q3 2027! 😱 Goldman and Barclays pushed th
🚨 Rate Cuts Vanish in 2026? Markets Brace for "Higher Forever" Shock – Time to Hedge or Hold? 🚨
avatarKenny_Loh
01-15 11:44

Are S-REITs Finally a "Buy" in 2026? Kenny Loh Breaks Down the Winners

Summary of “Money & Me” radio interview with Michelle Martin on MoneyFM89.3 Radio Station 1. The 2026 Outlook: A "Turning Point" Year The narrative for 2026 is one of recovery and transition. After two years of "restrictive" interest rates, the sector is entering what analysts call a two-year earnings upgrade cycle (2026–2027). 3 Key Turning Points Below: Rate Cut Impact: With the US Fed and domestic 3M SORA rates projected to settle around 1.2%–1.3% in 2026, the "cost-of-debt" drag is finally reversing. Dividend Uplift: Markets are forecasting low single digit uplift in DPU (Distribution Per Unit) as REITs replace maturing high-interest loans with cheaper financing. Price Potential: I anticipate a potential 10-15% price upside across the sector as yields normalize and the spread over
Are S-REITs Finally a "Buy" in 2026? Kenny Loh Breaks Down the Winners
avatarIsleigh
01-15 07:13

⏳ June Rate Cuts or Higher for Longer? Where US Money Is Quietly Rotating

December core CPI cooled to 2.6% YoY, the lowest in four years. Yet markets barely reacted. That silence matters 👀 It signals this phase is no longer about inflation prints alone. It is about confidence, and whether growth and jobs soften enough to force the Fed's hand. With June now priced as the earliest cut, the risk is that higher for longer stretches further than portfolios expect ⚠️. What would actually shift expectations? Likely a clearer rollover in wage growth, softer non-farm payrolls, or visible cracks in services and housing. Until then, expect choppy markets and selective leadership, not a broad rally. In US financials, rate-sensitive banks like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs may consolidate after strong runs rather than surge. Healthcare tends to hold up w
⏳ June Rate Cuts or Higher for Longer? Where US Money Is Quietly Rotating
avatarTiger_Contra
01-14 20:23

🔥SG Capital is Betting Big on "Resilient Yield" : Banking, Digital Infra, Aviation & Gold

📈 $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ Soared 22.67% in 2025—January 2026 Sees Fresh All-Time HighsYear-to-date, the top 5 performing sectors are Mineral Resources, Industrial Goods, Software & IT Services, Industrial & Commercial Services, and Automobiles & Auto Parts.We've identified 8 SGX darlings that local investors are laser-focused on right now. From $DBS(D05.SI)$ 's digital dominance to $STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ 's AI infrastructure pivot and Keppel's asset-light transformation, these aren't just familiar names—they're battle-tested wealth compounding machines.Ready to uncover which stocks are flashing entry signals and which need patience?Let's dive
🔥SG Capital is Betting Big on "Resilient Yield" : Banking, Digital Infra, Aviation & Gold
avatarKYHBKO
01-14 16:17

Latest CPI data and its potential impact (14Jan2026)

Here’s a clear summary of the latest CPI report (Consumer Price Index – December 2025) from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) official release: CPI details from official BLS website Summary by ChatGPT: 🧾 Headline Inflation (All Items) Monthly change: CPI-U (all items) rose 0.3 % in December 2025 (seasonally adjusted). Annual change: Up 2.7 % over the past 12 months (not seasonally adjusted), the same annual increase as in November. 📊 Core Inflation (Excluding Food & Energy) Core CPI increased 0.2 % in December and is up 2.6 % over the year. 🍎 Food and Energy Food prices: rose 3.1 % year-over-year, with food at home and food away from home both contributing. Energy index: up 2.3 % annually. 🔍 Major Contributors Shelter costs were the largest monthly contributor, increasing 0.4
Latest CPI data and its potential impact (14Jan2026)
avatardaz999999999
01-14 08:42
$Alphabet(GOOG)$   Alphabet stock on Tuesday extended its record-breaking run having well and truly joined the $4 trillion club Monday, underlining the Google parent’s status as the market’s new artificial-intelligence darling. Alphabet’s Class A shares, which trade under the ticker GOOGL, rose 1.2% to $335.97, notching a five-day winning streak. The stock closed up 1% at a new high of $331.86 the previous session after Apple and Google said they had formed an AI partnership, which lifted Alphabet’s total market capitalization past $4 trillion for the first time ever.
Good stance from Powell.. Hope left for the Fed
avatarWeChats
01-13
🚨 The Fed is Under Siege: Why This CPI Print Could Change Everything S&P 500 E-mini Futures(ESmain) NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures(NQmain) Tingle(Unknown) Gold(GCmain) The market just woke up to a reality check that goes far beyond normal data watching. We aren't just staring down a December CPI print; we are processing a historic structural shock to the Federal Reserve itself. Jerome Powell confirming a DOJ grand jury subpoena is a game-changer. It reintroduces "Political Risk" into US monetary policy in a way we haven't seen in decades. Combine that with a precarious inflation setup, and the market’s "soft landing" narrative is suddenly on thin ice. Futures are red, but the real volatility hasn't even started. 1️⃣ The "Fed Put" is in Danger (The Real Risk) Most retail traders are focused
avatarkoolgal
01-13
🌟🌟🌟Jerome Powell only has 3 months left on his term as Fed Chair yet he is facing an unprecedented probe launched by the Trump administration. The smartest investor response is to stay calm, avoid emotional trading and focus on portfolio resilience rather than political noise. @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
avatarECLC
01-13
"Fed under pressure", investors tend to be anxious and market wobbles. Think Powell in his remaining term will still make decisions based on economic data.
avatarECLC
01-13
"Fed independence shock" is just another piece of news to digest. Stay calm and trade cautiously.
Potential Implications of Grand Jury Subpoena to the Federal Reserve 1. Impact on Monetary Policy and Rate-Cut Expectations The grand jury subpoena served to the Federal Reserve and the threat of criminal charges against Chair Powell are seen as challenges to the Fed's independence. This situation has introduced uncertainty regarding the future path of U.S. monetary policy. Rate-Cut Expectations: The market is currently pricing in a low 5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28. However, expectations generally include approximately two rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2026. The underlying weakness of the U.S. dollar continues as the FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026. Internal Divisions: There are signi
avatarkoolgal
01-13

Fed Independence Shock: A Test of Nerves & A Reminder of What Really Drives Markets

🌟🌟🌟The US markets woke up rattled when Jerome Powell confirmed that the US Department of Justice had issued a grand jury subpoena to the Federal Reserve.  This is a dramatic escalation in pressure from the Trump administration.  For a moment, it felt like the ground shifted beneath investors' feet. A challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve isn't just another headline.  It strikes at the heart of US monetary credibility.  The pre market dip reflected exactly that fear. Investors suddenly had to price in a new variable : political risk inside monetary policy, the kind that muddles rate cut expectations and injects uncertainty into every macro model. But then something important happened. The US market recovered. Not because the subpoena vanished.  Not be
Fed Independence Shock: A Test of Nerves & A Reminder of What Really Drives Markets
Navigating Fed interest rate uncertainty in 2026 requires strategic positioning in gold and SPY. Current Fed funds rate projections indicate 1 to 2 cuts this year, with rates settling around 3.4 percent by year end. However, risks include potential executive interference, such as a DOJ probe into Chair Powell, which could disrupt Fed independence and fuel volatility. Gold prices hit records near 4,620 per ounce, trading around 4,584, up about 70 percent over the past year amid safe haven demand. SPY stands near 693.18, with S and P 500 forecasts targeting 7,600 by year end, implying roughly 10 percent upside. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   For gold, uncertainty favors bullish positioning. Lower rates reduce
avatarxc__
01-12

🚨 Powell's Bombshell: DOJ Subpoena Rocks Fed Independence – Markets Tank, But Is This Your Epic Buy-The-Dip Moment? 📉🔥

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ Whoa, folks – the financial world just got a massive shake-up! Jerome Powell dropped a video statement confirming the U.S. Department of Justice slapped the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening criminal charges over his testimony on the Fed's HQ renovation project. He's calling it straight-up pressure from the Trump crew to bend monetary policy to their will, prioritizing public good over presidential prefs. 😤 This is Powell's first direct clapback after dodging Trump's jabs for over a year – and markets aren't loving it! U.S. equity futures nosedived more than 0.6% pre-open, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq both feeling the heat as investors freak over
🚨 Powell's Bombshell: DOJ Subpoena Rocks Fed Independence – Markets Tank, But Is This Your Epic Buy-The-Dip Moment? 📉🔥
Will pressure on the Fed change rate-cut expectations? At the margin, yes, but not in the way markets initially fear. Policy reality: The Federal Reserve’s reaction function remains anchored to inflation, labour data, and financial conditions. A subpoena does not alter the data path, nor does it grant the executive branch control over rates. Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are institutionally insulated from direct interference. Market perception: The bigger impact is on risk premia, not the dot plot. Any perceived erosion of independence forces markets to price uncertainty around future policy consistency, which can delay or shallow the expected rate-cut path even if inflation cooperates. Net effect for 2026: Rate cuts are still likely if disinflation continues, but the bar for

The Nasdaq continues to fluctuate, how to stabilize returns?

Last Friday, stimulated by positive U.S. non-farm payrolls data,$Nasdaq 100ETF (QQQ) $It rose sharply by about 1%, breaking through the pressure level of the previous convergence triangle, and the short-term bulls were active. However, U.S. stocks fell back in night trading today, led by the Nasdaq index, mainly affected by the news that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was criminally investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice. The market is worried that the independence of the Federal Reserve may be damaged, thus affecting the continuity of monetary policy. Coupled with the release of key economic data (CPI, PPI, retail sales) this week and the start of the earnings season, investors generally increase their defensive positions, and risk as
The Nasdaq continues to fluctuate, how to stabilize returns?
avatarWeChats
01-12
Fed Chair Under Criminal Investigation? 🚨 Why the “Powell vs. Trump” War Just Got Dangerous for Markets $SPY $QQQ $GLD The wall between the White House and the Federal Reserve isn’t just cracking—it’s being sledgehammered. According to the Wall Street Journal, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is now under investigation by US Prosecutors regarding testimony he gave about the central bank’s building renovation. Powell has confirmed that the Fed received grand jury subpoenas from the DOJ, threatening criminal indictment. While the official reason is “spending and testimony,” Powell is calling it what the market fears most: a political pretext to intimidate the Fed into lowering interest rates. With the investigation led by a close Trump ally and Powell’s term ending in May, this is no longer just poli
avatarBarcode
01-12

🔥💣 Markets Are Pricing Peace While Polymarket Prices Airstrikes 💣🔥

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $CME Bitcoin - main 2601(BTCmain)$   🔍 Why This Matters Right Now I’m watching one of the most dangerous setups I have seen in years quietly build beneath the surface of global markets. Crypto is already reacting, but equities and volatility traders tied to $SPX and $VIX are still asleep, while $BTC continues to trade 24/7 as the first global risk barometer. 🚀 Crypto Is Already Moving $BTC is back above $92,000 in the overnight session, now up more than 1.6% as momentum continues to build across crypto markets. This is exactly what happens when geopolitical risk and macro instability s
🔥💣 Markets Are Pricing Peace While Polymarket Prices Airstrikes 💣🔥