The U.S. economy just threw investors a curveball: a 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 2025, shattering expectations of a 0.4% gain. This is the first shrinkage in three years, and it’s got Wall Street buzzing with unease. Goldman Sachs isn’t helping calm nerves, cautioning that U.S. stocks might be headed for rockier terrain—potentially “exploring lower bottoms.” With the S&P 500 already wobbling, is this the spark that ignites a full-blown market downturn? Or could it be the perfect moment to scoop up bargains? Buckle up as we dive into the chaos, weigh the risks, and figure out whether to hunker down or charge in. What’s Behind the GDP Drop? Let’s cut through the noise. The -0.3% GDP figure isn’t pretty—it’s a stark reversal from the growth everyone banked on. The culprit? A massive 41.3%

Two ‘more’ pertinent economic reports were out yesterday, Tue 29 Apr 2025 : US consumer confidence index by The Conference Board. Jobs opening and labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Needless to say, both were disappointing, to put it mildly. Consumer Confidence Index - April 2025. Consumer confidence for April 2025, sank -7.9 points to 86, its lowest level since May 2020. (see above) It’s a larger decline than economists’ projection of 87.7. Another report, US’s Expectations Index, that captures people’s outlook on the economy, plummeted -12.5 points this month to 54.4, also the lowest level since October 2011. It is well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. (see below) In the release, the Conference Board said consumers exp

The US economy just flashed a warning sign - GDP contracted 0.3% last quarter. For investors, this raises the billion-dollar question: Is this the start of something ugly, or just a temporary blip in America's economic recovery? Let's cut through the noise and examine what's really happening under the hood. Breaking Down the GDP Drop: Not All Contractions Are Equal At first glance, negative GDP growth sends chills down any investor's spine. But before hitting the panic button, we need to understand what's driving this decline: Trade Imbalance Drag: Net exports subtracted a whopping 3.2% from GDP as imports surged. This reflects strong US consumer demand rather than domestic weakness Inventory Adjustment: Businesses drew down stockpiles after aggressive 2021 restocking. This accounted for

$S&P 500(.SPX)$  The next FOMC meeting is just over five days away, and according to CME Group data, there’s a 95% probability that rates will remain unchanged. The key question now is: will Trump’s pressure or Powell’s caution ultimately shape the Fed's course? If there’s no cut this time, the next opportunity won’t come until June 18—unless deteriorating conditions force an emergency move. Despite eight consecutive days of gains in the market, the rally feels increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. I can’t quite explain the optimism, especially with more negative headlines likely in the coming month than positive ones. Most of the good news already seems priced in, leaving limited upside unless something u

U.S. Stock Market in 2025: Short-Term Volatility Masks Long-Term Growth Potential Despite the U.S. GDP contracting by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025—below the expected 0.4% growth—and Goldman Sachs warning of potential further declines in U.S. stocks, the long-term outlook for the U.S. stock market remains promising. This article explores the economic cycle, market fundamentals, policy impacts, and sector opportunities to explain why investors should remain optimistic about U.S. stocks despite current volatility. Economic Context: Short-Term Volatility as a Cyclical Adjustment According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the real GDP in the first quarter of 2025 declined at an annualized rate of 0.3%, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% growth and contrasting sharply with

The stock market is a high-stakes casino right now, and the Federal Reserve is spinning the wheel. With inflation stubbornly hovering at 3.1% in March 2025 and the 10-year Treasury yield spiking to 4.62%, investors are sweating bullets. The Nasdaq has shed 5.1% this month, closing at 17,342.19, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average clings to 42,108.63 after a 4.2% drop. Whispers of a rate hike—or a surprise pause—are swirling, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Will the Fed’s next move tank growth stocks or ignite a relief rally? Let’s break it down with fresh data, market vibes, and trading plays to ride the wave. The Fed’s Tightrope: Inflation vs. Growth Inflation’s refusing to back down, clocking in at 3.1% last month—above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, jobless claims ticked up to 21

U.S. GDP Shrinks by 0.3%: Is It Just the Beginning of a Market Downturn? The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the latest quarterly report, sparking concerns among investors and economists about whether this signals the onset of a broader market downturn. While a single quarter of negative growth does not technically constitute a recession, it raises red flags—especially amid an environment already fraught with inflationary pressures, high interest rates, and global uncertainty. Understanding the 0.3% Contraction The reported 0.3% decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflects slowing consumer spending, reduced business investment, and a pullback in exports. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation through aggressive interest rate hikes has begun to cool economic activity—e

'Sell in May and Go Away' Will the Seasonality Hold True This Year? The longstanding stock market saying "sell in May and go away" advises investors to sell their stocks in May and re-enter the market in November. This strategy is rooted in the historical trend of markets performing worse in the summer months compared to the winter in the northern hemisphere. In most years, selling in May and taking a break from the market doesn't usually make much sense. However, in 2025, with Trump's tariff war bringing new developments daily, the market volatility is at an all-time high. It seems more tempting than ever to sell stocks and move into bonds, GICs (guaranteed investment certificates), cash, or cash equivalents. What Does History Tell Us? A 2023 study conducted by Manulife Investment Managem

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of  Dow Futures (YM_F)  published in members area of the website.  As our members know, YM_F is trading within the cycle from the 36635 low.  Recently, we forecasted the end of the short-term pull back  and called for a further rally. In the following text, we’ll explain the Elliott Wave analysis and present target areas. YM_F Elliott Wave 1  Hour  Chart 04.21.2025 Dow Jones Futures is forming a three-wave pullback which still looks incomplete at the moment.  Our members know that we can easily identify the reversal area by measuring the Equal Legs zone, ((a)) related ((b)), which comes in at the 38531-37940 area. We expect buyers to appear within the

I have only 3 stocks. Here are some few thoughts on each: 1. $PLTR remains my core conviction. I have no doubts about the strength of the operating side, which is improving every day. AI FDE could make the company 10x faster in acquiring new customers and expanding existing ones. Palantir is not only improving. Its improvement speed is exploding. The only concern is on the valuation because it already incorporates sustained growth. For the stock to keep growing, we will need to see some WOW things, like 40% growth. I believe there are good chances we will see it in the coming quarters. Notice: While the AI sphere is booming, there are still no "AI IPOs". This makes me think we are still early in the cycle... 2. $HOOD is my favourite relatively undiscovered gem. Financial professionals are

If we have negative GDP again next quarter, we’ll technically be in a recession. The Fed is in a very tough spot. Inflation is still sticky in certain areas but growth and labor are stalling out. The Fed can’t cut too aggressively without risking another inflation spike and they can’t hold rates this high without pushing the economy further into contraction. There are downsides to both cutting and holding rates here but in my opinion the Fed is behind the curve and needs to start easing. They shouldn’t wait for the economy to break before cutting I don’t think a recession is inevitable but the warning signs are flashing. It’s time for Powell to step in

I opened 0.0048 share(s) $Apple(AAPL)$  ,I made an additional investment in Apple ahead of its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings report, scheduled for May 1. Wall Street expects a 5% year-over-year increase in earnings per share, driven by strong iPhone sales, impressive growth in the Services segment, and effective cost controls. Apple has consistently exceeded earnings expectations for the past four quarters, and I believe this trend will continue, supported by its diversified revenue streams and dominant market position. With a solid track record, I see Apple as a reliable growth stock.

🚨 RECESSION RISK SURGES AS GDP CONTRACTS Kalshi now shows a 74% chance of a U.S. recession this year, spiking after this morning’s surprise GDP print: 🔸 Q1 GDP: -0.3% vs. +0.3% expected 🔸 Core PCE: +3.5% 🔸 Employment Costs: +0.9% (in line) 🔸 Consumer Spending: +1.8% annualized Markets are reacting sharply — stocks are down and hitting session lows: 🔸 S&P 500 E-minis: -1.08% 🔸 Nasdaq 100 E-minis: -1.43 🔸 Dow E-minis: -0.80%

So… GDP just came in negative for the first time in years Jobs data came in +62K vs +115K expected, an ugly miss What else did we need to go wrong today? PCE Inflation data comes in at +1.8% vs +1.2% expected 💀 GDP down, Jobs down, Inflation….up 🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮

I closed 2500.0 share(s) $Tradr 2X Short TSLA Daily ETF(TSLQ)$  ,Market was weakening so I took my profits. Not the best trade. Will look for better options 

🚨 US ADVANCE Q1 GDP -0.3% (CONSENSUS +0.3%)