Fed Keeps Unchanged: Are 3 Rate Cut Estimates Too Optimistic?

After a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Is the market being too optimistic? As the broader market begins to pull back, what impact will this week’s FOMC meeting have?

avatarJacob X
04-30

Why Investors Should Be Cautious About Overreacting to Q1 2025 Economic Data

Understanding the Q1 Economic Snapshot Q1 2025 economic data, released on 30 April, 2025, paints a concerning picture: U.S. GDP contracted by -0.3% (against expectations of 0.2% growth), inflation metrics like Core PCE hit 3.50% (above the 3.10% forecast), and ADP employment growth for April was a weak 62K (versus 114K expected). At first glance, this suggests a slowing economy with rising inflation—a stagflationary scenario that might prompt investors to panic. However, a deeper look reveals why overreacting to these numbers could be a mistake. Q1 Was Shaped by Tariff Uncertainty, Not Reality The Q1 data (January-March 2025) reflects a period of significant uncertainty. By 31 March, businesses had no concrete details on tariffs, only speculation based on late 2024 campaign promises of bro
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Why Investors Should Be Cautious About Overreacting to Q1 2025 Economic Data
avatarPinkspider
04-30
If we have negative GDP again next quarter, we’ll technically be in a recession. The Fed is in a very tough spot. Inflation is still sticky in certain areas but growth and labor are stalling out. The Fed can’t cut too aggressively without risking another inflation spike and they can’t hold rates this high without pushing the economy further into contraction. There are downsides to both cutting and holding rates here but in my opinion the Fed is behind the curve and needs to start easing. They shouldn’t wait for the economy to break before cutting I don’t think a recession is inevitable but the warning signs are flashing. It’s time for Powell to step in
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avatarElliottwave_Forecast
04-30

Dow Futures (YM_F) Elliott Wave Calling the Rally After 3 Waves Pull Back

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of  Dow Futures (YM_F)  published in members area of the website.  As our members know, YM_F is trading within the cycle from the 36635 low.  Recently, we forecasted the end of the short-term pull back  and called for a further rally. In the following text, we’ll explain the Elliott Wave analysis and present target areas. YM_F Elliott Wave 1  Hour  Chart 04.21.2025 Dow Jones Futures is forming a three-wave pullback which still looks incomplete at the moment.  Our members know that we can easily identify the reversal area by measuring the Equal Legs zone, ((a)) related ((b)), which comes in at the 38531-37940 area. We expect buyers to appear within the
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Dow Futures (YM_F) Elliott Wave Calling the Rally After 3 Waves Pull Back
avatarTiger V
04-30
I opened 0.0048 share(s) $Apple(AAPL)$  ,I made an additional investment in Apple ahead of its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings report, scheduled for May 1. Wall Street expects a 5% year-over-year increase in earnings per share, driven by strong iPhone sales, impressive growth in the Services segment, and effective cost controls. Apple has consistently exceeded earnings expectations for the past four quarters, and I believe this trend will continue, supported by its diversified revenue streams and dominant market position. With a solid track record, I see Apple as a reliable growth stock.
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avatarST Capital
04-30
I closed 2500.0 share(s) $Tradr 2X Short TSLA Daily ETF(TSLQ)$  ,Market was weakening so I took my profits. Not the best trade. Will look for better options 
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avatarPinkspider
04-30
So… GDP just came in negative for the first time in years Jobs data came in +62K vs +115K expected, an ugly miss What else did we need to go wrong today? PCE Inflation data comes in at +1.8% vs +1.2% expected 💀 GDP down, Jobs down, Inflation….up 🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮
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avatarPinkspider
04-30
🚨 US ADVANCE Q1 GDP -0.3% (CONSENSUS +0.3%)
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avatarJC888
04-30

Jobs & Confidence LOW. NVDA trends lower ?

Two ‘more’ pertinent economic reports were out yesterday, Tue 29 Apr 2025 : US consumer confidence index by The Conference Board. Jobs opening and labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Needless to say, both were disappointing, to put it mildly. Consumer Confidence Index - April 2025. Consumer confidence for April 2025, sank -7.9 points to 86, its lowest level since May 2020. (see above) It’s a larger decline than economists’ projection of 87.7. Another report, US’s Expectations Index, that captures people’s outlook on the economy, plummeted -12.5 points this month to 54.4, also the lowest level since October 2011. It is well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. (see below) In the release, the Conference Board said consumers exp
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Jobs & Confidence LOW. NVDA trends lower ?
avatarPinkspider
04-30
🚨 RECESSION RISK SURGES AS GDP CONTRACTS Kalshi now shows a 74% chance of a U.S. recession this year, spiking after this morning’s surprise GDP print: 🔸 Q1 GDP: -0.3% vs. +0.3% expected 🔸 Core PCE: +3.5% 🔸 Employment Costs: +0.9% (in line) 🔸 Consumer Spending: +1.8% annualized Markets are reacting sharply — stocks are down and hitting session lows: 🔸 S&P 500 E-minis: -1.08% 🔸 Nasdaq 100 E-minis: -1.43 🔸 Dow E-minis: -0.80%
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avataryourcelesttyy
04-30

Rate Roulette: Will the Fed’s Next Move Sink or Swim Stocks?

The stock market is a high-stakes casino right now, and the Federal Reserve is spinning the wheel. With inflation stubbornly hovering at 3.1% in March 2025 and the 10-year Treasury yield spiking to 4.62%, investors are sweating bullets. The Nasdaq has shed 5.1% this month, closing at 17,342.19, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average clings to 42,108.63 after a 4.2% drop. Whispers of a rate hike—or a surprise pause—are swirling, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Will the Fed’s next move tank growth stocks or ignite a relief rally? Let’s break it down with fresh data, market vibes, and trading plays to ride the wave. The Fed’s Tightrope: Inflation vs. Growth Inflation’s refusing to back down, clocking in at 3.1% last month—above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, jobless claims ticked up to 21
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Rate Roulette: Will the Fed’s Next Move Sink or Swim Stocks?
avatarPinkspider
04-30
I have only 3 stocks. Here are some few thoughts on each: 1. $PLTR remains my core conviction. I have no doubts about the strength of the operating side, which is improving every day. AI FDE could make the company 10x faster in acquiring new customers and expanding existing ones. Palantir is not only improving. Its improvement speed is exploding. The only concern is on the valuation because it already incorporates sustained growth. For the stock to keep growing, we will need to see some WOW things, like 40% growth. I believe there are good chances we will see it in the coming quarters. Notice: While the AI sphere is booming, there are still no "AI IPOs". This makes me think we are still early in the cycle... 2. $HOOD is my favourite relatively undiscovered gem. Financial professionals are
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avatarMrzorro
04-30
'Sell in May and Go Away' Will the Seasonality Hold True This Year? The longstanding stock market saying "sell in May and go away" advises investors to sell their stocks in May and re-enter the market in November. This strategy is rooted in the historical trend of markets performing worse in the summer months compared to the winter in the northern hemisphere. In most years, selling in May and taking a break from the market doesn't usually make much sense. However, in 2025, with Trump's tariff war bringing new developments daily, the market volatility is at an all-time high. It seems more tempting than ever to sell stocks and move into bonds, GICs (guaranteed investment certificates), cash, or cash equivalents. What Does History Tell Us? A 2023 study conducted by Manulife Investment Managem
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avatarfir3tiger
04-28
go big or go home ezpz
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avatarAN88
04-27
Yes as it seems trump making sense soon
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avatarKYHBKO
04-27

Can the bulls run on this week for S&P500? S&P500 technical analysis (28Apr25)

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 28Apr25 Observations: The MACD indicator has completed the bottom cross-over that suggests an uptrend. Moving Averages (MA). The MA50 line has started a downtrend, while the MA200 line is on an uptrend. The MA200 line may tilt into a downtrend soon. This implies a downtrend in the mid-term and a bullish trend in the long term. A death cross has surfaced when the MA50 line cuts the MA200 line from above. A death cross can be seen as a bearish indicator. Candle. The last candle is below the MA50 and MA200 lines, implying a bearish outlook for the medium and long term. The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a downtrend. However, the lines are starting to converge, and a reversal should be confirmed soon. Chaikin’s Monetary Flow (
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Can the bulls run on this week for S&P500? S&P500 technical analysis (28Apr25)
avatarKYHBKO
04-27

Core PCE, Jobs data and Consumer confidence - Economic Calendar for week 28Apr25

Public Holidays Singapore and Hong Kong are closed on 1st May to celebrate Labour Day. China is closed on 1st & 2nd May as they celebrate Labour Day. America does not have any public holidays in the coming week. Economic Calendar (28Apr25) Notable Highlights Core PCE Price Index (Mar) forecast shows inflation cooling, with YoY at 2.9% (down from 3.4%) and MoM at 0.19% (down from 0.44%), suggesting easing inflationary pressures. This should be the most watched economic data that has implications for the interest rate. CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) forecast at 88.5 (below the last reading of 92.9) indicates weaker consumer sentiment, which could signal reduced spending and economic slowdown. GDP (QoQ, Q1) forecast at 0.4% (well below the previous 2.4%) signals a significant
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Core PCE, Jobs data and Consumer confidence - Economic Calendar for week 28Apr25
avatarJimmyHua
04-27
Three winning days have fueled excitement, but caution is still warranted before assuming the S&P 500 will easily break 5500:Overbought Signals: Momentum is strong, but the index is nearing overbought territory. A pullback or consolidation phase could happen before any sustainable breakout.Valuations Are Stretched: At current levels, the S&P 500’s P/E ratio is back near historical highs. Without continued earnings growth, upside could be limited.Macro Risks Linger: Geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, or a surprise Fed move could quickly reverse recent gains.Summer Volatility: Historically, the summer months bring thinner trading volumes and more volatile swings — a breakout could be harder to sustain.5500 is within reach, but in this market, discipline beats emotion. Wait for
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avatarWendyOneP
04-27
After three consecutive winning days, the S&P 500 looks primed to break through the 5500 level — and here’s why:Momentum is Strong: Technicals show clear upside momentum, with RSI and MACD both signaling further strength. The path of least resistance is up.Earnings Season Tailwind: Corporate earnings have consistently beaten expectations. Strong fundamentals support higher valuations, giving the rally real substance.Soft Landing Optimism: Inflation is cooling without a deep recession. With the Fed potentially pausing or even cutting rates later this year, liquidity could flood back into equities.Positioning is Still Cautious: Many funds remain underweight equities. If the rally continues, FOMO (fear of missing out) could drive a surge of new buying.If sentiment and data hold, smashing
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avatarKKLEE
04-26
After three consecutive days of solid gains, market sentiment is heating up once again. The S&P 500 is now flirting with new highs, and the big question is: can it smash through the psychological barrier of 5500? Momentum is clearly back, fueled by strong earnings, optimism around potential rate cuts, and cooling inflation data. Tech giants continue to drive the rally, while sectors like financials and consumer discretionary are showing fresh strength. With breadth improving and fear levels dropping, the bulls seem firmly in control — for now. However, volatility is lurking beneath the surface. Trump's unpredictable tariff policies, flip-flops on Federal Reserve actions, and global election uncertainties could still cause sudden market swings. Moreover, after such a sharp rebound, some
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