To The Moon

Earnings Calendar (20Oct25) EARNINGS We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including Coca-Cola, Netflix, IBM, Intuitive Surgical, Tesla, Procter & Gamble (P&G), General Motors (GM), and Raytheon. Who is Tesla? Tesla’s business centres on accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy. The company’s primary business is its Automotive Segment, which generates most of its revenue by designing, manufacturing, and selling electric vehicles (EVs) like the Model 3 and Model Y. Key aspects include a direct-to-consumer sales model, the proprietary Supercharger network, and the development of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software as a future recurring revenue stream. The secondary, but growing, seg

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 20Oct25) Public Holidays Singapore is closed on 20th Oct 2025 (Monday) as we join our citizens to celebrate Diwali (also known as Deepavali in Singapore). There are no holidays in the coming week for Hong Kong, China and America. Here is wishing all a blessed “Festival of Lights”. Market Outlook and Key Economic Indicators for the Coming Week The following is a summary of key economic data releases anticipated in the coming week, categorised by region and topic. These indicators are likely to introduce volatility and inform policy expectations. Inflation and Monetary Policy Consumer Price Index (CPI): This is projected to be the most closely watched economic indicator of the week, as it serves as a primary reference for US inflation. The outcom

My Investing Muse (13Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Investing - TRUMP: WILL BE MAKING PERMANENT CUTS DUE TO SHUTDOWN “US auto bankruptcies show rising credit pain in low-income households,” per Reuters. 44% of US homeowners and renters are struggling to afford their regular rent or mortgage payments, per Redfin “Gen Z are dipping into their retirements, skipping meals and selling their belongings just to get by,” per FORTUNE CNBC - France’s political chaos throws its soaring debt and deficit into the spotlight This is the largest trucking bankruptcy of the year - 1000 employees out of work at Montgomery Transport. - X user Craig Fuller An insurance executive told me that he expects new trucking and brokerage policies will forbid hiring non-domiciled CDLs. “It’s all over.” -

News and my thoughts from the past week (13Oct25) There is a $1.65 trillion wipeout in the market. It is not just about today. There can be some serious supply issues with the new Tariffs. Any margin call yet? China may not return to the table. There have been a million signs that the stock market is disconnected from reality and a nasty crash was coming. You just weren’t looking in the right place. The economy has been crumbling since February, its just no one in the casino wanted to close the tables. - X user Craig Fuller. China just hit back with export controls on 12 rare earth elements and now wants foreign buyers to get licenses too. Beijing controls 70% of rare earth mining, 90% of processing, and 93% of permanent magnet production. It also refines 100% of global samarium. Good luck

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 13Oct25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in China, Hong Kong and the USA. Singapore is closed on 13 Oct 2025 as we celebrate Deepavali (Diwali). Market Outlook and Key Economic Indicators for the Coming Week The following is an overview of the key economic events and data releases anticipated to drive market sentiment and volatility in the coming week. Inflationary Data Market attention will be primarily focused on two critical inflation metrics, which are particularly relevant following recent Federal Reserve (Fed) communications: Consumer Price Index (CPI): This is the most anticipated economic event. As a primary measure of inflation, any significant deviation from market forecasts is likely to induce substantial market volatili

Latest US-China trade conflict (8.20am SGT, 11Oct25) As of 08:20 AM +08 on October 11, 2025, the U.S.-China trade tensions have escalated. President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports and export controls on critical software, effective November 1, 2025, in response to China’s aggressive trade stance, as per an X post by TradingThomas (October 10). This move, triggered by China’s export restrictions, has led to a $1.65 trillion market drop, per WatcherGuru. The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) recently updated its policies, announcing export controls on superhard materials (e.g., artificial diamond micropowder) effective November 8, 2025, citing national security, as reported by Global Times (October 9-10). This may be a retaliatory measure or an independent strategy, though

There is a $1.65 trillion wipe out in the market. It is not just about today. There can be some serious supplies issue with the new Tariffs.  Any margin call yet?  China may not return to the table. What can we do? I will try to cover some potential impact in the next investing blog.

My Investing Muse (06Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news A bar chart displaying employers\' planned job additions in the US from 2011 to 2025, with data points for each September. Green bars vary in height, representing the number of jobs, with the y-axis labeled up to 1,000,000 and the x-axis showing years. The 2025 bar is notably low. Text overlay reads "Employers in US Dial Back Hiring Intentions, Planned job additions were the weakest for any September since 2011" and includes the Bloomberg watermark. Auto Parts Supplier First Brands Group Bankruptcy’s Spells Potential Trouble for Loads of People Who Own a Car, Truck, or SUV - MotorTrend NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Two auto sector bankruptcies have rattled parts of the U.S. credit market, raising concerns about a deteriorat

Market Outlook of S&P500 (06Oct25) Technical observations: MACD analysis indicates a bullish uptrend. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.21, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods. Technical analysis on the daily interval strongly supports a Strong Buy rating. This consensus is based on 22 technical indicators signalling a buy, with zero indicators signalling a sell. This alignment suggests significant short-term positi

X user Qcapital2020 has compiled a list of quotes in a recent post: 1.Jim Farley (CEO, Ford): “AI will replace half of all white-collar workers in the US.” 2.Dario Amodei (CEO, Anthropic): “White-collar bloodbath” — up to 50% of entry roles gone in 5 yrs. 3.Andy Jassy (CEO, Amazon): “We will need fewer people … this will reduce our total corporate workforce.” 4.Allison Kirkby (CEO, BT Group): AI could make layoffs “even deeper” than planned. 5.Arvind Krishna (CEO, IBM): ~7,800 roles could be automated out; paused hiring in replaceable areas. 6.Doug McMillon (CEO, Walmart): “AI is going to change literally every job.” 7.Marc Benioff (CEO, Salesforce): Cut 4,000 support jobs; AI now handles ~50% of calls. 8.Sebastian Siemiatkowski (CEO, Klarna): Workforce shrank from ~5,500 to ~3,000 v

$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.(FFAI)$ Taking position at all time low.

My Investing Muse (22Sep25) Layoffs & Closure news Neiman Marcus mall anchor store to close. The good news, though, is that malls have a prime opportunity to shift into mixed-use properties. - The Street The village of Maitland is reeling after the closure of the Invista plant. It will mean a loss of 100 jobs and some worry it’s a sign American companies may be exiting Canada. - CBC Veritas Investments, a real estate giant that owns thousands of housing units across the West Coast, has defaulted on $652 million in debt and is facing the foreclosure of 66 buildings in San Francisco - MacroEdge Major mattress company closing key factory, laying off workers. Mattress industry sales decline: Q2 2025 sales: 4.3% decline. Q1 2025 sales: $2.4 billion, 5.7% decline. 2024 annual sales: $9.2 bil

News and my thoughts from the past week (29Sep25) There are concerns about the AI Boom The current AI boom is not sustainable, a new Deutsche Bank research note warned. AI capex is now so massive that it is keeping the U.S. out of recession, the bank said. Separately, Bain & Co. estimate there will be an $800 billion shortfall in the revenues needed to fund the demand for AI computing power. About half the S&P 500’s gains this year have been driven by tech stocks. Underlying real GDP growth excluding tech spending sits around 0% in 24 to 25, which implies the economy is hovering near recession. The current lift mostly comes from building data centers and power supply, not from AI software output, so the driver is construction and equipment orders. AI capital expenditure is huge wit

Market Outlook of S&P500 (29Sep25) Technical observations: MACD analysis indicates a bearish uptrend with the completed top crossover. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. However, the lines are converging without an overlap. We can expect a convergence to take place in the coming days. Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.25, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods. Using the technical analysis provided by investing dot com, the S&P 500 has a strong recommendation based on the daily interval. 21 indicators are showing

The AI Hype vs. Reality: MIT Study Signals a Need for Strategic Focus Source: Forbes article A recent MIT study, “The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025,” reveals a sobering truth: 95% of generative AI projects are failing to deliver meaningful results despite $44 billion invested in AI startups and tools in the first half of 2025. This gap between hype and impact demands a strategic rethink for the AI industry. Why Projects Fail The study identifies a “learning gap” as a core issue, with enterprises deploying off-the-shelf AI models misaligned with specific business needs. Over half of AI budgets are squandered on low-impact areas like sales and marketing, while high-value domains like logistics and R&D are underutilised. Worker scepticism is rampant—62% view AI as overhyped—l

Here is a summary of the patterns that precede market crashes - compiled from a recent article by Howard Marks (Oaktree). This is extracted from his 14 Aug 2025 article titled “the Calculus of value”. ​Market crashes are not random but are often the culmination of recurring historical patterns. Four key indicators consistently appear: ​Overvaluation: The price of assets is driven by narratives and belief rather than by fundamental value and profitability. ​Leverage: The use of borrowed money to fund growth creates a fragile structure that is vulnerable to shifts in economic conditions like rising interest rates. ​Complacency: A prolonged period of calm markets leads investors to assume risk has vanished, making them unprepared for potential downturns. ​Euphoria: Markets are driven by senti

My Investing Muse (22Sep25) Layoffs & Closure news There is a HUGE disconnect between Job Openings and the market New survey conducted by Resume.org What happens after Trump’s clampdown on H1-B visas? US companies will try to move offices to India. If the US gov tries to kill outsourcing, then India-US relations will go downhill fast. At that point, India will be forced to develop its own IT or switch to Chinese infrastructure. Lots of turmoil ahead. - X user S.L. Kanthan Layoffs announced in Germany, past 12 months: • Volkswagen: 35,000 • Mercedes-Benz: 40,000 • Audi: 7,500 • Ford: 2,900 • Daimler Truck: 5,000 • ZF Group: 14,000 • Bosch, Continental, Schaeffler (combined): 7,000 German economy is not in a crisis, it’s imploding. - X user Michael. A Arouet These are some of the layoffs

News and my thoughts from the past week (22Sep25) The Fed cuts rates, and mortgage rates go up - The Maverick of Wall Street The Top 1% of U.S. earners now have more wealth than the entire middle class - BarChart U.S. Dollar has now lost more than 10% of its value this year - BarChart Recent survey of Harvard students, by @TheFIREorg There is a baseline for morality. When violence becomes a viable option due to differing opinions, have we lost our moral compass? @TigerStars $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

Market Outlook of S&P500 (22Sep25) Technical observations: MACD analysis indicates a bullish uptrend. However, it is important to note that a continuation of the prior downtrend remains a possibility, and this signal should be confirmed with other indicators. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.30, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods. The technical analysis has a “Strong Buy” recommendation for the S&P500. 21 indicators recommend a “

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 22Sep25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, the USA, Hong Kong and China. Global Economic Forecasts and Market Volatility Economic Indicators The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is projected at 51.8, while the S&P Global Services PMI is at 53.8, both forecasts indicating an expansion in their respective global sectors. Upcoming Market Events Several key events and data releases are expected to influence market volatility. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech is anticipated to impact market sentiment. New home sales and existing home sales data will provide insights into the real estate market. Durable goods orders are forecast to decrease by 0.4%. The PCE Price Index, th

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 20Oct25) Public Holidays Singapore is closed on 20th Oct 2025 (Monday) as we join our citizens to celebrate Diwali (also known as Deepavali in Singapore). There are no holidays in the coming week for Hong Kong, China and America. Here is wishing all a blessed “Festival of Lights”. Market Outlook and Key Economic Indicators for the Coming Week The following is a summary of key economic data releases anticipated in the coming week, categorised by region and topic. These indicators are likely to introduce volatility and inform policy expectations. Inflation and Monetary Policy Consumer Price Index (CPI): This is projected to be the most closely watched economic indicator of the week, as it serves as a primary reference for US inflation. The outcom

News and my thoughts from the past week (13Oct25) There is a $1.65 trillion wipeout in the market. It is not just about today. There can be some serious supply issues with the new Tariffs. Any margin call yet? China may not return to the table. There have been a million signs that the stock market is disconnected from reality and a nasty crash was coming. You just weren’t looking in the right place. The economy has been crumbling since February, its just no one in the casino wanted to close the tables. - X user Craig Fuller. China just hit back with export controls on 12 rare earth elements and now wants foreign buyers to get licenses too. Beijing controls 70% of rare earth mining, 90% of processing, and 93% of permanent magnet production. It also refines 100% of global samarium. Good luck

Earnings Calendar (20Oct25) EARNINGS We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including Coca-Cola, Netflix, IBM, Intuitive Surgical, Tesla, Procter & Gamble (P&G), General Motors (GM), and Raytheon. Who is Tesla? Tesla’s business centres on accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy. The company’s primary business is its Automotive Segment, which generates most of its revenue by designing, manufacturing, and selling electric vehicles (EVs) like the Model 3 and Model Y. Key aspects include a direct-to-consumer sales model, the proprietary Supercharger network, and the development of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software as a future recurring revenue stream. The secondary, but growing, seg

My Investing Muse (13Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Investing - TRUMP: WILL BE MAKING PERMANENT CUTS DUE TO SHUTDOWN “US auto bankruptcies show rising credit pain in low-income households,” per Reuters. 44% of US homeowners and renters are struggling to afford their regular rent or mortgage payments, per Redfin “Gen Z are dipping into their retirements, skipping meals and selling their belongings just to get by,” per FORTUNE CNBC - France’s political chaos throws its soaring debt and deficit into the spotlight This is the largest trucking bankruptcy of the year - 1000 employees out of work at Montgomery Transport. - X user Craig Fuller An insurance executive told me that he expects new trucking and brokerage policies will forbid hiring non-domiciled CDLs. “It’s all over.” -

My Investing Muse (06Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news A bar chart displaying employers\' planned job additions in the US from 2011 to 2025, with data points for each September. Green bars vary in height, representing the number of jobs, with the y-axis labeled up to 1,000,000 and the x-axis showing years. The 2025 bar is notably low. Text overlay reads "Employers in US Dial Back Hiring Intentions, Planned job additions were the weakest for any September since 2011" and includes the Bloomberg watermark. Auto Parts Supplier First Brands Group Bankruptcy’s Spells Potential Trouble for Loads of People Who Own a Car, Truck, or SUV - MotorTrend NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Two auto sector bankruptcies have rattled parts of the U.S. credit market, raising concerns about a deteriorat

Market Outlook of S&P500 (06Oct25) Technical observations: MACD analysis indicates a bullish uptrend. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.21, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods. Technical analysis on the daily interval strongly supports a Strong Buy rating. This consensus is based on 22 technical indicators signalling a buy, with zero indicators signalling a sell. This alignment suggests significant short-term positi

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 22Sep25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, the USA, Hong Kong and China. Global Economic Forecasts and Market Volatility Economic Indicators The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is projected at 51.8, while the S&P Global Services PMI is at 53.8, both forecasts indicating an expansion in their respective global sectors. Upcoming Market Events Several key events and data releases are expected to influence market volatility. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech is anticipated to impact market sentiment. New home sales and existing home sales data will provide insights into the real estate market. Durable goods orders are forecast to decrease by 0.4%. The PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation

My Investing Muse (22Sep25) Layoffs & Closure news Neiman Marcus mall anchor store to close. The good news, though, is that malls have a prime opportunity to shift into mixed-use properties. - The Street The village of Maitland is reeling after the closure of the Invista plant. It will mean a loss of 100 jobs and some worry it’s a sign American companies may be exiting Canada. - CBC Veritas Investments, a real estate giant that owns thousands of housing units across the West Coast, has defaulted on $652 million in debt and is facing the foreclosure of 66 buildings in San Francisco - MacroEdge Major mattress company closing key factory, laying off workers. Mattress industry sales decline: Q2 2025 sales: 4.3% decline. Q1 2025 sales: $2.4 billion, 5.7% decline. 2024 annual sales: $9.2 bil

News and my thoughts from the past week (29Sep25) There are concerns about the AI Boom The current AI boom is not sustainable, a new Deutsche Bank research note warned. AI capex is now so massive that it is keeping the U.S. out of recession, the bank said. Separately, Bain & Co. estimate there will be an $800 billion shortfall in the revenues needed to fund the demand for AI computing power. About half the S&P 500’s gains this year have been driven by tech stocks. Underlying real GDP growth excluding tech spending sits around 0% in 24 to 25, which implies the economy is hovering near recession. The current lift mostly comes from building data centers and power supply, not from AI software output, so the driver is construction and equipment orders. AI capital expenditure is huge wit

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 15Sep25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, the USA, Hong Kong and China. Observations (Economic Calendar) Retail Sales and Consumption Retail sales and retail sales data serve as crucial indicators for understanding consumer consumption trends within the U.S. market. This information provides insight into consumer spending habits and overall economic health. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision The most closely watched economic event is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The market has largely anticipated a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut, a sentiment likely influenced by pressure from President Trump. This expectation is already priced into current market positions, which means a decision not to cut rates co

X user Qcapital2020 has compiled a list of quotes in a recent post: 1.Jim Farley (CEO, Ford): “AI will replace half of all white-collar workers in the US.” 2.Dario Amodei (CEO, Anthropic): “White-collar bloodbath” — up to 50% of entry roles gone in 5 yrs. 3.Andy Jassy (CEO, Amazon): “We will need fewer people … this will reduce our total corporate workforce.” 4.Allison Kirkby (CEO, BT Group): AI could make layoffs “even deeper” than planned. 5.Arvind Krishna (CEO, IBM): ~7,800 roles could be automated out; paused hiring in replaceable areas. 6.Doug McMillon (CEO, Walmart): “AI is going to change literally every job.” 7.Marc Benioff (CEO, Salesforce): Cut 4,000 support jobs; AI now handles ~50% of calls. 8.Sebastian Siemiatkowski (CEO, Klarna): Workforce shrank from ~5,500 to ~3,000 v

My Investing Muse (22Sep25) Layoffs & Closure news There is a HUGE disconnect between Job Openings and the market New survey conducted by Resume.org What happens after Trump’s clampdown on H1-B visas? US companies will try to move offices to India. If the US gov tries to kill outsourcing, then India-US relations will go downhill fast. At that point, India will be forced to develop its own IT or switch to Chinese infrastructure. Lots of turmoil ahead. - X user S.L. Kanthan Layoffs announced in Germany, past 12 months: • Volkswagen: 35,000 • Mercedes-Benz: 40,000 • Audi: 7,500 • Ford: 2,900 • Daimler Truck: 5,000 • ZF Group: 14,000 • Bosch, Continental, Schaeffler (combined): 7,000 German economy is not in a crisis, it’s imploding. - X user Michael. A Arouet These are some of the layoffs

My Investing Muse (15Sep25) Layoffs & Closure news Elon Musk's xAI fires 500 data annotators working on Grok. The layoffs come amid plans to expand the specialist AI tutor team of the chatbot. - EFTech ANZ BANK CEO DISCUSSES JOB CUTS WITH TREASURER ANZ Bank's CEO Nuno Matos speaks with Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers on plans to cut 4,500 jobs. The move raises concerns over the bank's future direction and economic implications, prompting a governmental inquiry into the layoffs. Source: The Australian Oracle has initiated another round of global layoffs, firing more than 3000 employees. - Indian Tech & Infra Rivian is cutting 200 jobs... just as the $7,500 EV tax credit vanishes. Washington pulled the plug. Now Rivian has to survive on real demand. - Amanda Goodall BIG TECH COMPANIES

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 13Oct25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in China, Hong Kong and the USA. Singapore is closed on 13 Oct 2025 as we celebrate Deepavali (Diwali). Market Outlook and Key Economic Indicators for the Coming Week The following is an overview of the key economic events and data releases anticipated to drive market sentiment and volatility in the coming week. Inflationary Data Market attention will be primarily focused on two critical inflation metrics, which are particularly relevant following recent Federal Reserve (Fed) communications: Consumer Price Index (CPI): This is the most anticipated economic event. As a primary measure of inflation, any significant deviation from market forecasts is likely to induce substantial market volatili

Latest US-China trade conflict (8.20am SGT, 11Oct25) As of 08:20 AM +08 on October 11, 2025, the U.S.-China trade tensions have escalated. President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports and export controls on critical software, effective November 1, 2025, in response to China’s aggressive trade stance, as per an X post by TradingThomas (October 10). This move, triggered by China’s export restrictions, has led to a $1.65 trillion market drop, per WatcherGuru. The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) recently updated its policies, announcing export controls on superhard materials (e.g., artificial diamond micropowder) effective November 8, 2025, citing national security, as reported by Global Times (October 9-10). This may be a retaliatory measure or an independent strategy, though

Market Outlook of S&P500 (29Sep25) Technical observations: MACD analysis indicates a bearish uptrend with the completed top crossover. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. However, the lines are converging without an overlap. We can expect a convergence to take place in the coming days. Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.25, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods. Using the technical analysis provided by investing dot com, the S&P 500 has a strong recommendation based on the daily interval. 21 indicators are showing

News and my thoughts from the past week (15Sep25) Reporter: “Goldman Sachs says 86% of the tariffs have been paid by American businesses & consumers.” - X user Unusual Whales A panoramic view of Paris with the Eiffel Tower and other landmarks visible in the skyline. The French flag is prominently displayed in the foreground, waving above a street with buildings and rooftops. Text overlays include "Fitch downgrades crisis-strained France" and date information. A line chart showing the distribution of US household wealth from 1989 to 2024. Colored bands represent wealth percentages for different income groups: bottom 50% in blue, 50-90% in yellow, 90-99% in red, 99-99.9% in brown, and top 0.1% in purple. The chart indicates a significant increase in wealth concentration, with the bottom

The AI Hype vs. Reality: MIT Study Signals a Need for Strategic Focus Source: Forbes article A recent MIT study, “The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025,” reveals a sobering truth: 95% of generative AI projects are failing to deliver meaningful results despite $44 billion invested in AI startups and tools in the first half of 2025. This gap between hype and impact demands a strategic rethink for the AI industry. Why Projects Fail The study identifies a “learning gap” as a core issue, with enterprises deploying off-the-shelf AI models misaligned with specific business needs. Over half of AI budgets are squandered on low-impact areas like sales and marketing, while high-value domains like logistics and R&D are underutilised. Worker scepticism is rampant—62% view AI as overhyped—l

News and my thoughts from the past week (08Sep25) Microsoft says multiple international subsea cables have been cut in the Red Sea. - The Kobeissi Letter A line graph showing the Office CMBS Delinquency Rate in percentage from 2000 to 2025. The y-axis ranges from 0% to 12%, and the x-axis spans the years. A red line plots the delinquency rate, peaking sharply during labeled events: Oil Bust around 2015, Financial Crisis around 2008, and Recession around 2001. The rate rises steeply from 2020, reaching 11.7% by 2024. A blue horizontal line marks 12%. Text labels include "Oil Bust," "Financial Crisis," and "Recession." A watermark reads "WOLFSTREET.COM 2023." Commercial Real Estate Office CMBS Delinquency Rate jumps to 11.7%, the highest level in history - BarChart In a reset, the weak is re

Here is a summary of the patterns that precede market crashes - compiled from a recent article by Howard Marks (Oaktree). This is extracted from his 14 Aug 2025 article titled “the Calculus of value”. ​Market crashes are not random but are often the culmination of recurring historical patterns. Four key indicators consistently appear: ​Overvaluation: The price of assets is driven by narratives and belief rather than by fundamental value and profitability. ​Leverage: The use of borrowed money to fund growth creates a fragile structure that is vulnerable to shifts in economic conditions like rising interest rates. ​Complacency: A prolonged period of calm markets leads investors to assume risk has vanished, making them unprepared for potential downturns. ​Euphoria: Markets are driven by senti