Tech earnings start rolling out this week, likely performing similarly to TSMC last week: fundamentally positive but failing to lift stock prices. This isn't necessarily due to a lack of appeal in the AI narrative; it might be that investors are leaning towards watching macroeconomic risks.Overall, put options remain split between two extremes. Barring any black swan events, this week's price action should resemble last week's. Some stocks even appear less tense by comparison. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Bearish options show extreme positioning, with 14,000 contracts of weekly deep out-of-the-money 150 puts $NVDA 20251024 150.0 PUT$  opened, suggesting a potential black swan risk this week. W

Tickers Involved: NVDA, AMD, TSLA, AAPL, AMZN, META, PLTR, HOOD, CRCL$NVDA$Key News:NVIDIA partners with RedCloud on a $280 million Saudi trade project, using NVIDIA tech to optimize the AI platform.Jensen Huang revises previous statement that "China will dominate the AI race," emphasizing the US-China tech gap is merely "nanoseconds."Collaboration with Deutsche Telekom on a €1 billion data center project involving 10,000 GPUs.Options Analysis:Market Sentiment: Elevated Implied Volatility (IV 54.5%)预示着 significant price swings. Overall bias leans bullish, but large funds are actively hedging downside risk.Short-term (til 11/14): Expected range-bound action between $180 - $195.Near-term (til 11/21): Range likely expands to $175 - $205.Key Support: $180. A historical bounce level and dense P

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ As expected, NVDA will likely continue its sideways churn next week between $175 and $187. However, the put opening volume remains somewhat puzzling. That said, with negotiation outcomes still pending, extreme hedging is understandable.Sell $NVDA 20251031 187.5 CALL$ , Buy $NVDA 20251031 195.0 CALL$ Sell $NVDA 20251031 182.5 PUT$ , Buy $NVDA 20251031 177.5 PUT$  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Similar to NVDA, TSLA continues tra

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ It's not a popular topic to bring up during bullish times, but this series of large orders is just too outrageous.A few days ago, someone purchased nearly $60 million worth of put options, all expiring on November 14th, with strike prices of 515 $MSFT 20251114 515.0 PUT$ , 520 $MSFT 20251114 520.0 PUT$ , and 525.Specifically, the 525 $MSFT 20251114 525.0 PUT$  was a 10,000 contract order placed on October 7th; the 520 was a 12,700 contract order placed on October 9th; and the 515 was a large 17,000 contract order placed on Oct

These past few days, observing the market has felt like writing some kind of psychological thriller.Here's the current situation: After the first round of confrontation, the US side, knowing the market should fall this round, stopped publishing the kind of foolish, escalating pressure content from April and focused instead on absolving themselves. Then, the Wall Street Journal directly published an article stating that our side wants the US stock market to crash. Our side, also aware that the US wants to pin the blame for the stock market decline on us, has been very restrained in its remarks, sticking strictly to the facts. The US isn't escalating, so we aren't either.So, on the surface, almost everyone knows the stock market is headed for a crash—it's even been promoted in the newspapers

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The surge past 200 was abrupt. Jensen Huang laid out concrete revenue plans, making it impossible for the market to dismiss it as mere speculation any longer.Unsurprisingly, this triggered a short squeeze. Institutions hastily rolled their bear call spreads from the 200-207.5 range yesterday. It doesn't appear they continued rolling today.Expect consolidation between 195 and 220 next. Consider selling puts on dips, like the $NVDA 20251031 195.0 PUT$ . $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ AMD hitting 300 is now a plausible near-term topic.However, a covered call position emerged on Tuesday, selling the

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Options flow suggests the market expects this rally to pause around the 250 level.However, expectations are one thing, reality is another. Large sell call orders are targeting prices significantly above the main open interest zone:Sell call: 12.4k lots of the $AMD 20251024 300.0 CALL$  opened.There are also large sell call orders at lower strikes, like the 250 $AMD 20251024 250.0 CALL$ , which feels prone to a short squeeze.Put open interest is concentrated between 210 and 220. Selling puts could be considered below this range, e.g., the

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$ Checked the news—the stock surged due to expanded distribution channels with Walmart. However, even with more channels, products that don’t taste good still won’t sell well.Sorted by positions, both bulls and bears are placing aggressive bets in the options market. But at the current price level, I feel the battle could be decided as early as tomorrow.Interestingly, the most opened call option is the 40 call $BYND 20251219 40.0 CALL$ , but it’s not one-sided—both buyers and sellers are active. I lean more toward the sell side, although today might not be the best timing to sell. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Overall, exp

The market crashed just minutes after I posted an article titled "End-of-Month Pullback" on Friday. I thought, well, this isn't going according to plan. Since it happened ahead of schedule, I suppose everyone's biggest concern now is at what level it's safe to buy the dip, or whether we should be hedging right now.I'm currently holding a 50% long position myself, because, as mentioned in the article, I wanted to keep some cash ready for buying opportunities. But I wasn't fully prepared for this crash either, even though I wrote before the National Day holiday about large VIX orders betting on a sharp drop $VIX 20251119 32.0 CALL$ . That's because the bearish sentiment has been present since July, but it kept getting squeez

$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ A significant bearish block trade was executed in the Semiconductor ETF on Thursday. The trade involved buying 20,000 contracts of the January 16, 2026, 335 put $SMH 20260116 335.0 PUT$ , totaling $41.7 million.It's difficult to pinpoint the exact shorting level for this at-the-money put expiring in over three months, but the substantial premium paid indicates strong conviction from the seller regarding an upcoming pullback in semiconductors.The current bearish activity is intense. If you are uncertain about the market outlook but tempted by the recent gains, consider maintaining a position below 50% with cash reserves, and implementing option protec

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ All parties were on high alert, yet the negotiations concluded smoothly. The previously anticipated sharp drop to 640 or even 600 didn't materialize. Does that mean no decline is coming? Not necessarily. The anticipation artificially inflated the market beforehand, effectively creating room for a pullback. As the saying goes, if there's no pullback room, create it.A block trade bought the $VIX 20251217 33.0 CALL$  with volume of 123.2k contracts, amounting to $10.96 million. Expect SPY to potentially experience another 3% pullback.However, the tech stock gains over the past two weeks weren't entirely driven by negotiation expectations; AI-specific deman

Hardware/Semiconductors $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Key News:NVIDIA's stock hit a new all-time high of $186.58 today, with its market cap exceeding $4.53 trillion.Surging demand for AI chips is driving institutional accumulation and target price increases to $220.Options Analysis:Trading in both calls and puts is concentrated near the current stock price ($180-$185), indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears.Active put trading suggests some demand for hedging downside risk.Next 1 Day (to Oct 3): Expected stock price range is $182.77 - $191.71 (narrow fluctuation).Next 8 Days (to Oct 10): Expected stock price range is $174.68 - $199.80.The short-term direction is unclear, but volatility is expected to increase over the next week. The stock has a high p

Q3 2025 Earnings Expectations:Alphabet's Q3 2025 results are expected to surpass market consensus.Revenue forecast is revised up to $86.0 billion, above the consensus of $85.0 billion.A one-time legal expense of $3.9 billion is anticipated, resulting in EPS coming in below market expectations.Search revenue growth is projected to remain stable at 12% YoY, while Cloud revenue is forecast to grow 32% YoY.Q4 outlook is also optimistic, with projected revenue and EPS of $93.8 billion and $2.59, respectively, exceeding expectations.How to Evaluate Alphabet's Earnings Expectations:The Generative AI strategy is showing significant results and gaining momentum, indicating very strong operational performance.The stock's short-term direction will likely depend more on Q4 guidance and a comparative p

Q3 2025 Earnings Expectations:Projected Q3 revenue and EPS are $50.0 billion and $7.30, respectively, exceeding the consensus estimates of $49.5 billion and $6.69.Forecasted Q4 revenue and EPS are $58.8 billion and $8.90, also surpassing market expectations of $57.3 billion and $8.12.Q3 ad revenue growth is accelerating, with only a modest deceleration anticipated in Q4.FY2026 capital expenditure is expected to see "similar growth" to 2025, implying a total annual capex approaching $100 billion.How to Evaluate META's Earnings Expectations:Meta's near-term performance and future growth outlook are highly optimistic.Revenue and profit forecasts for Q3, Q4, and 2026 are all significantly above market consensus.The clarity and execution of its AI roadmap are key determinants of future investor

FQ1 2026 Earnings Expectations:FQ126 performance is expected to exceed market consensus;Projected total revenue is $75.4 billion, with EPS of $3.65, slightly above the market consensus of $75.3 billion in revenue;Azure growth is anticipated to reach the high end of the 30% range, potentially sustaining the current high growth trend until FY28;Microsoft's FY26 capital expenditure forecast has been raised to approximately $127 billion, with FQ2 capital expenditure expected to reach $33 billion.How to Evaluate Microsoft's Earnings Expectations:Earnings expectations are highly optimistic;The market may be underestimating Microsoft's commitment and investment in AI infrastructure;Expected earnings volatility is ±4.7%, with a fluctuation range of $498 to $547.Trading Strategy:Strong business per

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ After Wednesday's intraday sell-off, there are signs that short sellers are pulling back for the week. This isn't to say they've given up on shorting, but rather they are starting to shift their focus to a few weeks from now.Shorts believe there's still a probability the price could fall below $170. Consequently, they are buying longer-dated put options $NVDA 20251219 142.0 PUT$  $NVDA 20260821 170.0 PUT$ , with some also positioning for next week's $160 puts $NVDA 20251031 160.0 PUT$ .I somewhat suspect these longer-dated puts m