Fed Keeps Unchanged: Are 3 Rate Cut Estimates Too Optimistic?

After a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Is the market being too optimistic? As the broader market begins to pull back, what impact will this week’s FOMC meeting have?

Trump 🤝 Fed: Will You Bet on S&P Big Rebound or EM Markets?

Yesterday, the market was greeted with three pieces of positive news in quick succession.Trump hinted at a major shift in the trade war, saying that tariffs on Chinese goods would be “significantly reduced — though not to zero.”Trump told reporters he never intended to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled a softer stance on tariffs during a closed-door meeting hosted by JPMorgan in Washington, suggesting that trade tensions may ease.A Big Bounce Coming for US Stocks?According to Emma Wu, a global quantitative and derivatives strategist at JPMorgan, retail investors net bought $2.2 billion worth of stocks as of Monday, well above the one-month average.So, is the market gearing up for a meaningful rally? From both a technical and liquidity perspecti
Trump 🤝 Fed: Will You Bet on S&P Big Rebound or EM Markets?

US-China Talks Set to Happen This Week; China Finance Minister Stated China Will Adopt More Proactive Macro Policies [CSOP APAC Midweek Glance]

East Asia  $CSOP LOW CARBON US$(LCU.SI)$ WTD return: +0.97% LCU gained WTD in USD and gains were led by consumer discretionary, communication services and industrials by sectors and $TENCENT(00700)$ , $MEITUAN(MPNGF)$ and $BABA-W(09988)$ by individual firms. According to Bloomberg data, Tencent led Hong Kong’s share buybacks in April. Meanwhile, Meituan rose due to robust hotel bookings and travel-related orders during China’s labor day holiday. $CSOP SEA TECH ETF US$(SQU.SI)$ WTD return: +0.87% SQU rose WTD in USD and gains were primarily attributable to MD Entert
US-China Talks Set to Happen This Week; China Finance Minister Stated China Will Adopt More Proactive Macro Policies [CSOP APAC Midweek Glance]
avatarJinHan
05-01

GDP Shrinks: Market Storm Ahead or Just a False Alarm?

The US economy just flashed a warning sign - GDP contracted 0.3% last quarter. For investors, this raises the billion-dollar question: Is this the start of something ugly, or just a temporary blip in America's economic recovery? Let's cut through the noise and examine what's really happening under the hood. Breaking Down the GDP Drop: Not All Contractions Are Equal At first glance, negative GDP growth sends chills down any investor's spine. But before hitting the panic button, we need to understand what's driving this decline: Trade Imbalance Drag: Net exports subtracted a whopping 3.2% from GDP as imports surged. This reflects strong US consumer demand rather than domestic weakness Inventory Adjustment: Businesses drew down stockpiles after aggressive 2021 restocking. This accounted for
GDP Shrinks: Market Storm Ahead or Just a False Alarm?
avatarxc__
04-24

Trump and Fed: S&P 5500 Rebound or Emerging Markets Bet?

$S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$ $Emerging Markets ETF( $iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(EEM)$ )$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund( $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ )$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund( $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ )$ On April 22, 2025, President Trump’s declaration that he has “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell triggered a swift market turnaround. U.S. stocks roared back, with the S&P 500 climbing 2.8% to 5,302, the U.S. dollar strengthening, and bonds rallying, while gold retreated from its highs. Investors are now asking: Is this a massiv
Trump and Fed: S&P 5500 Rebound or Emerging Markets Bet?
avatarBarcode
04-14
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Applied Materials(AMAT)$🚨📰🤖 Mag 7 Stocks: The Tariff Twist That Could Change Everything 🤖🚨 In a move that reverberates through boardrooms and trading floors alike, the U.S. has granted a tariff reprieve to the tech sector’s most vital components. For the Mag 7 stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia, this is more than a policy update, it’s a potential inflection point in their market trajectories. I can’t help but feel a mix of relief and cautious optimism for the tech sector. The recent
avatarxc__
04-22

Dollar Dips Below 98: Is S&P 500 in Jeopardy?

$S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund( $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$ )$ $ProShares UltraShort S&P 500( $ProShares UltraShort S&P500(SDS)$ )$ $iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF( $iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(EEM)$ )$ The U.S. dollar’s slide below the critical 98 support level on April 20, 2025, has sent shockwaves through financial markets, with the S&P 500 closing at 5,158 on Monday, April 21, after a 2% loss. The CNN Fear and Greed Index, sitting at a jittery 21, reflects a market teetering on the edge of "extreme fear." With the USD Index (DXY) now
Dollar Dips Below 98: Is S&P 500 in Jeopardy?
avatarxc__
04-15

Tariff Reversal, Rating Downgrade: Sell the Rally or Buy the Dip?

$Apple( $Apple(AAPL)$ )$ $NVIDIA Corp( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ )$ $S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$ $Citigroup( $Citigroup(C)$ )$ The U.S. stock market is at a pivotal moment as of April 14, 2025. Citi equity strategists, led by Beata Manthey, have downgraded their U.S. market rating from Overweight to Neutral, citing fading economic exceptionalism amid pressures like China’s DeepSeek AI, Europe’s fiscal policies, and escalating trade tensions. Yet, a tariff exemption on tech goods has sent Apple (AAPL) and NVIDIA (NVDA) soaring in overnight trading. With the S&P 500 teetering and tech stocks rallying, investors face a burni
Tariff Reversal, Rating Downgrade: Sell the Rally or Buy the Dip?

U.S. Debt Major Crash, US Plans Export Subsidy War

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ A Game of Strategy and Tactics The trade war has now boiled down to pure strategy and tactics. Today, we need to look closely at what China is doing — and what the United States is planning in response. Breakdown in Communication We’ve reached a point where communication channels between the two powers have essentially broken down. It’s become a repetitive pattern: the U.S. threatens Beijing, China retaliates, Trump responds aggressively within hours, and the cycle continues. The Core of the Conflict: U.S. Fiscal Weakness At the core of Trump’s trade war is a sobering realization: the U.S. is financially stretched. Deficit spending is no longer sustainable, and even ma
U.S. Debt Major Crash, US Plans Export Subsidy War
avatarxc__
04-14

Tariff Reversal & Citi’s Downgrade: Navigating the U.S. Stock Market’s Latest Twist

$Apple( $Apple(AAPL)$ )$ $NVIDIA Corp( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ )$ $S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$ $Citigroup( $Citigroup(C)$ )$ As of April 14, 2025, the U.S. stock market is caught in a whirlwind of conflicting signals. Citi equity strategists, led by Beata Manthey, have downgraded their U.S. equity rating from Overweight to Neutral, pointing to fading economic exceptionalism amid global shifts like China’s DeepSeek AI, Europe’s fiscal stance, and rising trade tensions. At the same time, a tariff exemption on electronics has ignited a rally in stocks like Apple (AAPL) and NVIDIA (NVDA), with gains lighting up overnight tradin
Tariff Reversal & Citi’s Downgrade: Navigating the U.S. Stock Market’s Latest Twist
avatarKYHBKO
04-14

Layoffs, Tariffs & caution - my investing muse (14Apr25)

My Investing Muse (14Apr25) Layoffs & Closure news The Lululemon store on the corner of 25th and Broadway in Uptown Oakland has quietly closed its doors for good. - SF Gate Meta, the Menlo Park-based tech giant behind Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram, is shutting three side-by-side buildings at its large office complex across the bay in Fremont. - SF Gate LL Flooring agreed to sell up to 219 stores and the company's Sandston, Va., distribution center to a subsidiary of private equity firm F9 Investments for a $1 million fixed amount, an inventory price of 57% of landed cost value of acquired inventory and assumed cure costs. - The Street ENERGY DEPT FLAGS 8,500 JOBS FOR POSSIBLE TERMINATION UNDER TRUMP’S FEDERAL WORKFORCE CUTS The U.S. Energy Department has identified over 8,500 “nones
Layoffs, Tariffs & caution - my investing muse (14Apr25)
avatarTBI
04-20

#TBI2025[17]: CLSK, GME, RGTI

Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended
#TBI2025[17]: CLSK, GME, RGTI
avatarKYHBKO
04-14

Can we shortlist TSMC - Earnings Calendar 14Apr25

Earnings Calendar (14 Apr 2025) I am interested in the earnings of Goldman Sachs, Citi, Bank of America, United, ASML, TSMC and Netflix. Let us look at TSMC. The Technical Analysis has a “Strong Sell” rating, in contrast to the “Strong Buy” recommendation from Analysts Sentiments. The target price of 241.69 suggests a (potential) upside of over 53%. Below is the financial performance review using GROK: Revenue Growth Trend: TSMC's revenue has shown strong growth, increasing from $25.724 billion in 2015 to $88.552 billion in 2024. The 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue is 13.8%, reflecting robust expansion. Key Milestones: Revenue growth was particularly strong in 2020 (34.3%) and 2021 (20.5%), driven by global demand for semiconductors. There was a slight decline of 6.3
Can we shortlist TSMC - Earnings Calendar 14Apr25

Recession-Proof? ServiceNow Strong Q1, Raises Guidance, ​​AI Pays Off!

$ServiceNow(NOW)$ Strong Q1 FY2025 Earnings Performance Drives Shares Significantly Higher After HoursCore InsightsGrowth resilience highlighted: management raised guidance despite cautious IT spending environment, reflecting deep product moat (RPO +24% YoY to $18B).AI commercialization speeding up: from "technology story" to actual revenue generation, 2025 may be the inflection point of AI contribution.Strong upgrade guidance: current demand resilience exceeds expectations, customers regard ServiceNow as a "must-have" rather than an optional tool.If the economic downturn leads to a contraction of corporate IT budgets, it may affect the pace of expansion of small and medium-sized customers (current revenue concentration: Top 50 customers account fo
Recession-Proof? ServiceNow Strong Q1, Raises Guidance, ​​AI Pays Off!

Trump Pressures the Fed for an Emergency Rate Cut: Will U.S. Stocks Rebound This Week?

As Jerome Powell continues to stress uncertainties around the economy and inflation—firmly sticking to a “hawkish” stance against rapid rate cuts—President Trump has now “reached his limit,” openly questioning whether he holds the authority to “fire” the Federal Reserve Chair.Though actually removing Powell in practice would be quite difficult—and with Powell’s term set to expire next year, it·s debatable whether such a move would even be necessary—the increasing disconnect between presidential policy and Fed monetary policy has become stark. Against the backdrop of shifting tariff policies, unexpected headlines have started to hit the market with greater frequency. Given Trump’s characteristic unpredictability, it’s hardly unthinkable that he might impulsively announce Powell’s dismissal,
Trump Pressures the Fed for an Emergency Rate Cut: Will U.S. Stocks Rebound This Week?

Weekly Insights: Trump Threatens Powell — In a Weak Dollar World, Where Are the Opportunities?

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a hawkish tone, not only reaffirming the Fed’s stance of being in no rush to cut rates, but also explicitly stating that the Fed would not intervene to support the stock market amid volatility. This firmly dashed market hopes for a "Fed Put", triggering a sharp sell-off in equities on the same day. The following day, Trump publicly lashed out, stating that he intended to fire Powell—once again raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Markets fell further in response to the escalating tension. Historically, when the Fed’s independence comes under serious threat, the outcomes have rarely been positive. A similar situation occurred between 1970 and 1974, when Pr
Weekly Insights: Trump Threatens Powell — In a Weak Dollar World, Where Are the Opportunities?
avatarTBI
04-19

#TBI2025[16]: 2025 Market Outlook Pt. 3

Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended
#TBI2025[16]: 2025 Market Outlook Pt. 3

Q1 US Airlines: Lower Costs Can't Offset Weak Demand

Most airlines have now released their Q1 2025 earnings, reflecting a pattern of "falling costs overshadowed by weak demand." While declining fuel prices provided some breathing room, rising labor costs and sluggish domestic demand weighed heavily on profits. Airlines with higher international exposure (e.g., United Airlines) performed relatively better, whereas low-cost carriers reliant on domestic leisure travel (e.g., Frontier, $JetBlue Airways(JBLU)$ faced more severe challenges. Industry Overview: Weak Demand Pressures Earnings, Mixed Cost DynamicsIn Q1 2025, the U.S. airline industry was under dual pressure from weak demand and elevated costs. Industry-wide profit growth stalled, with the following core characteristics:Demand Weakness Drives
Q1 US Airlines: Lower Costs Can't Offset Weak Demand

How to trade US stocks under high tariffs? Which industries are more suitable?

Will the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ form a double bottom?The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 0 index is currently in a downtrend, approaching the previous low of 5168.98. If it can stabilize near the MA200 (5753.47) and show a rebound with reduced volume, it may form a double bottom. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the RSI and KDJ indicators; if there are oversold or overbought signals, cautious operations are needed. Changes in trading volume are also crucial; if a stabilization with reduced volume occurs near the support level, it may indicate the formation of a double bottom. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ EPS Estimates for 2025 are now at $263.05, with a growth
How to trade US stocks under high tariffs? Which industries are more suitable?

Trump’s Policy Reversals Signal a Potential Double Bottom for the Market

Last week's financial market was truly spectacular, though it still fell short compared to the face-changing Trump. We previously speculated that Trump would look for a way to step down, thereby helping the market stabilize and rebound. Although his final actions did indeed help risk assets find a bottom, his rhetoric of "I haven't surrendered, these are all strategies" and the weekend hints about "exemptions" strongly suggest that a second market bottom is highly probable1.The Failed Tariff StrategyLooking at the developments on the tariff issue, although things didn't unfold exactly as anticipated, the 90-day postponement essentially represents a delaying tactic forced upon the US after its original strategy failed. Judging from China's rapid responses and countermeasures, Trump's cards
Trump’s Policy Reversals Signal a Potential Double Bottom for the Market
avatarkoolgal
04-24

Will S&P500 Return To 5500? Should I invest In Emerging Markets instead?

🌟🌟🌟Predicting a specific level like 5500 for the S&P500 is not an easy task and I do not have a crystal ball.  This requires an assessment of multiple macroeconomic and company specific factors.  However in a recovery scenario which could be fueled by improving corporate earnings, stabilised global trade, and favourable monetary policy, I believe that the S&P500 could very well return to 5500 and even go beyond.  On the flip side, persistent headwinds such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties or shifts toward tighter monetary policy might delay or derail that recovery.  The benchmark of 5500 is seen as a transition point that reflects market confidence in the resiliency of US companies and an overall economic rebound.  In essence, if e
Will S&P500 Return To 5500? Should I invest In Emerging Markets instead?