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"Market" Volatility (07:12)

By Lawrence G. McMillan This article was originally published in The Option Strategist Newsletter Volume 7, No. 12 on June 25, 1998. With the frequent number of 100-plus point moves in the market – some in each direction – there has been a growing number of commentaries regarding market volatility. However, there has been very little, if any, discussion of just what to expect from the market at these levels. In this week’s article, we’re going to take a look at various measures of market volatility, and then see if we can determine what kind of volatility is “normal” for various scenarios. The best way to measure market volatility is statistically. That’s what we call the “historic” volatility. It measures how fast the market has been moving around in the past. This is a pretty s
"Market" Volatility (07:12)

Common Issues in Q2 Earnings

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC's (TSM) earnings report saw the stock price spike and then pull back. I believe the main issue is similar to what was mentioned yesterday: Q3 is expected to grow 4% quarter-over-quarter, but the numbers aren’t particularly enticing. Additionally, the stock had already hit new highs prior to the report. Even though management expressed strong optimism about AI prospects, the stock price gains remained within the forecast range.This quarter’s earnings reports may exhibit a similar pattern across the board: Q2 significantly overdraws full-year expectations, leading to high openings followed by sell-offs after the disclosure.It is worth paying attention to data center-related stocks. TSMC management indica
Common Issues in Q2 Earnings

NVIDIA Bears Targeting 160

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Institutions continued to sell call options at 167.5 and 170 this week. Currently, there are 140,000 open interest contracts for the 170 call, and any strike with more than 100,000 open interest warrants attention.The largest open interest for puts expiring this week is at 165, 162.5, and 160 strikes. Coupled with additional 160 put positions across other expirations, it’s clear that the bears are hoping for NVIDIA to pull back to 160 this week.However, the 160 put isn’t strictly bearish. For example, the majority of the 160 puts expiring on August 15th and August 29th are sold positions, signaling that many traders believe NVIDIA will remain above 155 before the earnings report.On Monday’s open, NVIDIA briefly dipped to 161.7 befor
NVIDIA Bears Targeting 160

Translation with Stock Codes Retained

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC's (TSM) earnings report is scheduled for Thursday, with mixed expectations:Earnings Positives: Strong Q2 data, with an 11% quarter-over-quarter growth; full-year revenue guidance may be raised.Potential Earnings Negatives: Average performance expected for Q3 and Q4, with Q3 growth projected at 3-6% QoQ and a conservative outlook for Q4 at -6%.Overall, the positives seem to have been priced in, such as the potential upward revision of full-year revenue guidance, while the earnings report may confirm the negative expectations.The anticipated volatility for this earnings report is 4.6%, with a trading range of $224–246.Two main strategies are being adopted for this earnings report:Simple bullish strategy:
Translation with Stock Codes Retained

A Simple Guide to Profiting from Tesla's Q2 Earnings Report

2025 Q2 Earnings ExpectationsTesla’s Q2 delivery numbers are projected to be 384,000 vehicles, up 14% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding the earlier forecast of 2%.June sales were exceptionally strong, with monthly deliveries accounting for 47% of the entire quarter.The new U.S. tax law eliminating EV tax credits is set to take effect on September 30, potentially creating a Q3 pre-purchase rush.The new Model Y is expected to support sales growth in Q3 and Q4.A low-cost new vehicle may launch in Q4.Robotaxi operations have started, with fleet expansion expected to exceed 1,000 vehicles within the next 6–9 months.How to Evaluate Tesla's Earnings ExpectationsJune’s sales surge may not be sustainable, and the stock price has likely already priced in the good news.The anticipated pre-purchase
A Simple Guide to Profiting from Tesla's Q2 Earnings Report

Growth Stock Pullback

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The bullish trend is very strong, but bearish crash bets are starting again. Next week, it will either rise normally or experience a flash crash.Institutions are selling calls at 170 and hedging at 177.5. Bullish options are seeing a large number of new positions for the following weeks, presenting an optimistic landscape, though I can't say for sure.Bearish options are being opened for puts expiring on the 18th at strike prices of 140 and 141. Additionally, there's significant open interest for the halving level at 95, but this doesn't correspond to bearish positions on $SPY$.I lean toward normal trading next week, and my position is sell call 170 + sell put 160. If NVIDIA’s stock price breaks 168, I'll consider rolling the positio
Growth Stock Pullback

He Made $18M in 1 Year. Here’s How It Works

Recently, a trader from the U.S., John Carter, gained attention for reportedly earning $18.2 million in a year using a repeatable trading strategy called "Squeeze." He applied it to high-profile stocks like Tesla, Amazon, and Netflix, and the results were impressive.This wasn’t luck or insider trading — it was a system built on discipline, timing, and risk management. So what exactly is the “Squeeze” strategy, and is it something everyday investors can adopt? Let’s break it down.1. Who Is John Carter?John Carter is a self-taught trader, not a Wall Street insider. He began with just $1,000 he saved from a part-time job. His first trade — a call option on Intel — made him $800 in a few weeks. That early success led him into the world of trading, but like many, he went through painful losses.
He Made $18M in 1 Year. Here’s How It Works

Google Cloud's TPU will be Leading that Charge

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ will definitely be one of the key beneficiaries of global IT spending flipping from on-premise to cloud over the coming years. And Google Cloud's TPU will be leading that charge. Stock price easily going above $200 and then some.Here's why ... read the 🧵 below ...1. Vertical Integration and Optimization for AI WorkloadsGOOGL, GOOG Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) are likely to gain more traction amid the explosive growth of AI data centers for several strategic, technical, and economic reasons.TPUs are custom-designed ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits) optimized for neural network workloads, especially deep learning models like transformers (e.g., BERT, PaLM
Google Cloud's TPU will be Leading that Charge

Wealthy Trader Spends $7 Million on Long-Dated Call Options to Chase Intel Rally

$Intel(INTC)$ On Tuesday, Intel ($INTC$) inexplicably surged by 7%, and a wealthy trader purchased over $7 million worth of long-dated call options. Specifically:$INTC 20260320 24.0 CALL$ : 17,800 contracts opened.This wasn’t the only bullish bet. There were also:$INTC 20251017 28.0 CALL$ : 9,125 contracts opened.A long-dated straddle: $INTC 20260320 20.0 PUT$  + $INTC 20260320 25.0 CALL$ .Based on the open interest, Intel's outlook seems positive. The bullish target is 25, wit
Wealthy Trader Spends $7 Million on Long-Dated Call Options to Chase Intel Rally

Will Coinbase Continue Rising as Crypto Legislation Nears?

The U.S. Congress is advancing three major cryptocurrency bills that could impact the $2.8 trillion global crypto market. This marks the beginning of comprehensive regulation for the industry.What Changes Do the Bills Bring?Stablecoin RegulationStablecoins like USDC must hold full reserves, similar to bank deposits, and provide monthly public ledgers. Compliant companies will benefit from this regulation.Token ClassificationTokens like Bitcoin are classified as "commodities" regulated by the CFTC, while some tokens are deemed "securities" under SEC oversight. This clarity helps exchanges know which tokens can be legally traded.Ban on Government Digital Currencies (CBDCs)To address concerns about government-issued digital currencies enabling surveillance of all spending records, the legisla
Will Coinbase Continue Rising as Crypto Legislation Nears?

Can NVIDIA Still Be Chased Higher?

Here’s a momentum strategy with an 83% win rate to consider!NVIDIA’s Progress in the Chinese MarketIn a recently published blog post, NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ stated that the U.S. government may soon approve its license to sell H20 GPU chips to China. While the license hasn’t been officially approved yet, the company expressed optimism.After the news was released on July 15, NVIDIA’s stock surged as much as 5%, reaching a high of $172.53.How Much Growth Can NVIDIA Recover?Previously, the U.S. chip ban on China caused NVIDIA to lose approximately $8 billion in Q2 revenue.If the ban is eased, NVIDIA is expected to recover part of those losses in the second half of the year.Analyst estimates suggest that for every $10 billion increase in Chinese revenue
Can NVIDIA Still Be Chased Higher?

Cautiously Optimistic, Following the Trend

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The market remains bullish, with NVIDIA's stock price expected to challenge 170. For now, I'll follow the bullish trend and take it one step at a time.Institutions are rolling their sell calls to next week at the 170 strike, hedging with 177.5.The $NVDA 20250808 160.0 CALL$  expiring August 8 hasn’t been closed, and the $NVDA 20250715 165.0 CALL$  expiring July 15 is seeing mostly buy-side activity, indicating the current trend could extend into next week.For now, selling puts is a viable strategy. Selling both this week’s and next week’s puts at the 160 strike is reasonable, but avoid using lev
Cautiously Optimistic, Following the Trend

Tesla Bears Place Big Bets on Earnings Below $300

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla's upcoming earnings report is likely to be uneventful. The numbers are weak, with Q2 deliveries down about 14% year-over-year. Even with AI hype, it won’t translate into revenue or profits in the short term.A safe bearish approach is to sell calls. I sold next week’s 350 strike call:$TSLA 20250725 350.0 CALL$ .For those looking for a deeper bearish position without spending much, consider this zero-cost bearish strategy employed by a major bear. It avoids IV crush concerns and profits if Tesla’s stock drops below $310:Buy 1x $TSLA 20260116 400.0 CALLSell 1x $TSLA 20260116 300.0 CALLBuy 2x $TSLA 20260116 250.0 PUTThis bear is very crafty, executing trad
Tesla Bears Place Big Bets on Earnings Below $300

Option Strategies: Wait for the ER of TSLA!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ releases earnings after the closing bell Wednesday. Expected move is ~7%. Got the following positions heading into earnings. Here is our #Optionselling game plan for tomorrow.1. Hold the Aug 15 $285 naked puts.2. Hold the Aug 15 $300 cash-secured put (CSP), but am tempted to roll to the July 25 expiry $325 strike.3. Roll the Jan 16 2026 $300 CSP to the Aug 15 $355 strike (thus creating a synthetic long).4. Will hold one of the Jun 17 2027 $600 naked calls, but am debating what to do with the other three calls. Am leaning towards taking them off the table for tomorrow and then re-writing post-earnings.5. Hold the Jan 15 2027 $230 CSPs.280 is a demand zone
Option Strategies: Wait for the ER of TSLA!

The End of HOOD's Short-Term Rally, Insider Rolls to Long-Term Bullish Positions

$Robinhood(HOOD)$ Due to a sudden rally, HOOD’s recent options daily trading volume exceeded 1 million contracts. After a closer look, it appears that institutions may have been involved in bullish positions: 16,600 contracts opened for the 2026 expiry 115 call, over 10,000 contracts for the 120 call, and 12,500 contracts for the 125 call.Upon further investigation, these bullish option positions were part of a roll trade. The 82 and 85 calls expiring this week ($HOOD 20250703 83.0 CALL$  and $HOOD 20250703 85.0 CALL$ ) were closed and rolled into the 2026 expiry 115, 120, and 125 calls (
The End of HOOD's Short-Term Rally, Insider Rolls to Long-Term Bullish Positions

Trading Ideas: .SPX, TSLA& META

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you!1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ TRADE PLAN 📈 📉 CALLS: SPX above 6300 SPX July 25 6350C T 6339,6369 SL 6279 📈 PUTS: SPX under 6251 SPX July 25 6200P T 6200,6187 SL 6279 📉 Last Week Recap:SPX tested the 6,300 zone but failed to break through cleanly. Still hovering at highs. Let's see if SPX can hold above 6251 as a higher low next weekKey Levels:Resistance: 6,300 → 6,334 → 6,369Support: 6,222 → 6,171What I'm Watching:Above 6,300 can trigger the next breakout leg to 6369. If6251 fails, watch for dip buying at 6200. There's no big economic data this week. We just have earnings to look out for starting with $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ on Wednesday.Image2.
Trading Ideas: .SPX, TSLA& META

TSM: Earning Report Day

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ up in overnight session upon release of earnings results. Let's see what today brings in pre-market and regular trading hours.Ended up writing the Aug 15 $170P. Will look to close out tomorrow for profit and will let the Aug 15 $280CC ride.For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.
TSM: Earning Report Day

Simple and Clear Guide to Profiting from Google’s Q2 Earnings

Safely Riding the Wave of Google’s Earnings.AI Is Not Yet a Threat to Google SearchAccording to a Citi survey, Google Search remains the core of most users' internet usage. In Q2, the U.S. search market share stayed at a healthy level of about 87%.Google’s core business use cases (e.g., shopping and travel) continue to grow, particularly among younger demographics.Current AI agents are primarily used for research-driven tasks, such as website translation, academic research, and travel planning, rather than shopping-related commercial activities.What to Expect from Google’s Q2 EarningsTotal Revenue: Predicted to be $93.7 billion, representing a 10.6% year-over-year growth.Search Business: Expected to grow 8.8%.YouTube Ad Revenue: Predicted to grow 10.0%.Google Cloud: OpenAI signed an agreem
Simple and Clear Guide to Profiting from Google’s Q2 Earnings

A Simple Guide to Profiting from Q3 Bank Earnings

Straightforward and easy to follow—just copy the playbook.How Have Bank Stocks Performed?Since the release of Q1 2025 earnings, the Bank Index (BKX) has risen by 26%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 17% gain.The regulatory environment for banks is undergoing a positive "structural shift". Looser regulations are expected to boost the valuation prospects of the entire sector.However, the good news has already been priced in, and any further upside in stock prices will heavily depend on exceeding the expected Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth.How to Evaluate Bank Stock ExpectationsNo Major Bearish ExpectationsThe absence of significant negative catalysts eliminates the chance of a major price drop.Outcomes to Consider:If results meet expectations: stock prices may stagnate or dip slightly.If re
A Simple Guide to Profiting from Q3 Bank Earnings

OSCR& HIMS: Which is More Competitive?

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1.Have been contemplating which healthcare stock to go heavier into ... $Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ or $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ .Looks like $Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ is the front-runner as a longer-term investment with more potential. Comparison and reasons in the 🧵 below ...Thanks ChatGPT and Grok for help with the analysis.Why $Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ :- Undervalued Disruptor: OSCR trades at a much lower valuation than HIMS, suggesting greater upside if it successfully executes.- Bigger Market: Health insurance is a multi-trillion-dolla
OSCR& HIMS: Which is More Competitive?
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